The increase in radioactive waste increased the demand for transportation to the disposal facility. Prior to transporting radioactive waste, confirming that the potential exposure is insignificant is crucial. Overland transportation risk assessment models were developed tailored to domestic characteristics. Dose assessment using this model requires selecting appropriate factors. However, users may struggle to derive appropriate values, leading to inaccuracies. Additionally, if assessment results show outliers, prioritizing factors for review can be challenging. Therefore, sensitivity analysis is necessary to prioritize factors for accurate assessment. In this study, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the on-link public risk assessment model factors for radioactive waste overland transportation. Initially, assessment models were analyzed by each detailed exposure scenario. Subsequently, uncertainty propagation-based sensitivity analysis methodology was applied. The default values for the assessment model factors were set, and sensitivity analysis was conducted based on road type for maximum individual and collective dose assessment models. For the maximum individual dose model, the distance to the samedirection vehicle was the most sensitive, whereas for the collective dose model, vehicle velocity was the most sensitive. The results of this study can be used as the basic data on radioactive waste transportation risk assessment in Korea in the future.

LILW disposal repository in Gyeongju, South Korea is considered with a concrete mixture that uses Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) partially substituted with supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). The degradation of cementitious materials that result from chemical and physical attacks is a major concern in the safety of radioactive waste disposal. We present a reactive transport model utilized as one of the geochemical simulation approaches for the timescales of concern that range from hundreds to thousands of years. The purpose of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of parameters in concrete disposal systems and to evaluate the influence of various assumptions on the chemical degradation of the systems using a reactive transport model. A reactive transport model in the concrete disposal vault was developed to evaluate the behavior of engineered barriers composed of cementitious materials. The sensitivity analysis was performed using reactive transport models through the coupling between COMSOL and PHREEQC. The databases selected for the analysis are the Thermochimie database presented by ANDRA. Among many variables considered, two variables that can highly affect chemical degradation were selected for detailed sensitivity analysis for dealing with uncertainties. This is important because the chemical degradation mechanism is generally sensitive to precipitation and diffusion coefficient. The first factor is precipitation, which might be the most important factor in chemical degradation because it acts as a calcium leaching of cementitious materials in a disposal system in a highly alkaline environment, increasing the porosity of the system. To predict the change in annual precipitation, the measurement of the precipitation observatory station in the nearest area of Gyeongju for the past 80 years was collected. The second factor is the diffusion coefficient, which plays an essential role in the durability of the concrete disposal system, promoting the decalcification of cementitious minerals, accelerating system degradation, and increasing the porosity of its system, thereby facilitating the migration of radionuclides. The diffusion coefficient values used in studies similar to this work were calculated and evaluated using the box-and-whisker method. The results of the sensitivity analyses for the reactive transport model in the concrete disposal system will be presented. The sensitivity cases show that the results obtained are much more sensitive to changes in transport parameters.

The damage ratio of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) is a very important intermediate variable for dry storage risk assessment which require an interdisciplinary and comprehensive investigation. It is known that the pinch load applied to the cladding can lead to Mode-3 failure and the cladding becomes more vulnerable to this failure mode with the existence of radial hydrides and other forms of mechanical defects. In this study, a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the importance of the damage parameters that need to be calibrated for the simulation of zircaloy-4 cladding failure using computational mechanics. The simulation model was generated from a microscopic image of the cladding with hydride. The image segmentation method was used to separate the Zircaloy-4, hydride, and hydride- Zircaloy matrix interfaces to create a pixel-based finite element model. The ring compression test (RCT) was simulated because the resistance of the cladding under pinch load can be evaluated by this test. It was assumed that the damage starts with the formation and growth of voids or small cracks in the material, which grow and combine to form larger cracks, eventually leading to the complete fracture of the material. Therefore, the ductile damage criterion was applied to all materials to simulate crack formation and propagation. The sensitivity analysis was performed based on the design of experiments using L8 orthogonal array. The effects of five factors on the fracture resistance of hydrided cladding were quantified, and they are the fracture strains describing the damage initiation in zircaloy-4 matrix, hydride, and hydride-zirconium matrix, and yield stress and Young’s modulus for hydride-zirconium matrix. Information on those parameters are hardly available in literature and experimental data which enable the estimation of those are also very rare. It is planned to build a computational model which can accurately simulate the fracture behavior of hydrided cladding by calibrating significant fracture parameters using reverse engineering. The results of this study will help to figure out those significant parameters.

To obtain confidence in the safety of disposal facilities for radioactive waste, it is essential to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the waste disposal facilities by using safety assessment models. Thus, safety assessment models require uncertainty management as a key part of the confidencebuilding process. In application to the numerical modelling, the global sensitivity analysis is widely employed for dealing with parametric and conceptual uncertainties. In particular, the parametric uncertainty can be effectively reduced by minimizing the uncertainty of critical parameters in the safety assessment model. In this paper, the numerical model of each step disposal facility (Silo, Near surface, and Trench type) at Wolsong Low and Immediate Level Waste (LILW) Disposal Center is designed by using a two-dimensional finite element code (COMSOL Multiphysics). In order to determine the critical parameters for non-adsorbed nuclides such as H-3, C-14, Tc-99, we introduced the variance-based sensitivity analysis methodology of the global sensitivity analysis. In the case of Silo type, the density of waste is highly sensitive to the total leakage quantity of all nuclides. Additionally, the initial nuclide concentration of H-3 was identified as another important parameter of H-3. On the other hands, the mass transport coefficient showed a high contribution in C-14 and Tc-99. In other types of disposal facilities, the leaking properties of H-3 are significantly affected by the amount of infiltration water. However, C-14 and Tc-99 were found to be more sensitive to the density of waste.

In this study, the impact of cumulus parameterization usage in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on reproducing summer precipitation in South Korea is evaluated. Two sensitivity experiments are set up with using cumulus parameterization (ON experiment) and without using cumulus parameterization, which is called Convection Permitting Model (OFF experiment). For the both ON and OFF experiments, the horizontal grid resolution is 2.5km, and initial and lateral boundary conditions are derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Overall, both of the two experiments can capture the spatial distribution of 2014 summer mean and extreme precipitation but show dry biases in the southern region of Korean Peninsula. Occurrence percentage analyses for different precipitation intensity reveal that OFF experiments show better performance than ON experiment for extreme precipitation. In the case of heavy rainfall over Gyeongnam region for 25 August 2014, OFF experiment shows similar characteristic of rainfall to the observations, although it simulates earlier precipitation peak. On the other hand, ON experiment underestimates the amount of precipitation. Also, vertical distribution of equivalent potential temperature and strong southerly wind which play an important role in developing heavy rainfall on 25 August 2014 are better simulated in OFF experiment.

In recent years, there have been concerted efforts toward predicting ship maneuvering in shallow water since the majority of ship’s accidents near harbors commonly occur in shallow and restricted waters. Enhancement of ship maneuverability at the design stage is crucial in ensuring that a ship navigates safely. However, though challenging, establishing the mathematical model of ship maneuvering motion is recognized as crucial toward accurately predicting the assessment of maneuverability. This paper focused on a study on sensitivity analysis of the hydrodynamic coefficients on the maneuverability prediction of KVLCC2 in shallow waters. Hydrodynamic coefficients at different water depths were estimated from the experimental results conducted in the square tank at Changwon National University (CWNU). The simulation of standard maneuvering of KVLLC2 in shallow waters was compared with the results of the Free Running Model Test (FRMT) in shallow waters from other institutes. Additionally the sensitivity analysis of all hydrodynamic coefficients was conducted by deviating each hydrodynamic derivative from the experimental results. The standard maneuvering parameters including turning tests and zig-zag maneuvers were conducted at different water depths and their effects on the standard maneuvering parameters were assessed to understand the importance of different derivatives in ship maneuvering in shallow waters.

우리나라는 지난 30년 동안 기후변화 및 도시화 등으로 인한 변화가 급격하게 진행된 바 있으므로, 두 가지 요소들로 인한 유량의 변동량을 정량화 하여 분석할 필요가 있다. 그러나 유량의 변동량을 특정 원인별로 구분하여 분석하고자 하는 국내 연구는 매우 미미한 형편이며, 다양한 시간단위 를 이용한 원인별 유량 변동량의 산정에 관한 연구는 더욱 찾아보기 힘들다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화 및 인간활동으로 인한 유량 변동량을 정량적으로 분리하기 위하여 수문모형을 이용한 방법과 수문학적 민감도(hydrological sensitivity) 분석 방법을 소양강 상류유역 및 섬강 유역에 대해 적용하고 유량 변동량의 결과를 월별, 분기별 및 연별로 구분하여 제시하였다. 인간활동으로 인해 발생되는 급진적인 변동점을 탐색하기 위해 이중누가곡선, Pettitt 검정 및 베이지안 변동점(Bayesian change point) 분석을 시행하였으며, 탐색된 변동점을 활용하여 변동점 이전 구간에 대 해 보정 및 검증된 SWAT모형과 6가지의 Budyko 곡선 함수들로부터 각각 유량 변동량을 산정하여 수문모형에 의한 유량 변동량을 검증하였다.

Sensitivity analysis of the WRF model according to the impact of nudging (e.g., nudging techniques and application domains) was conducted during high nocturnal ozone episode to improve the prediction of the regional ozone concentration in the southeastern coastal area of the Korean peninsula. The analysis was performed by six simulation experiments: (1) without nudging (e.g., CNTL case), (2) with observation nudging (ONE case) to all domains (domain 1∼4), (3) with grid nudging (GNE case) to all domains, (4)∼(6) with grid nudging to domain 1, domain 1∼2 and domain 1∼3, respectively (GNE-1, GNE-2, GNE-3 case). The results for nudging techniques showed that the GNE case was in very good agreement with those observed during all analysis periods (e.g., daytime, nighttime, and total), as compared to the ONE case. In particular, the large effect of grid nudging on the near-surface meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, and wind fields) was predicted at the coastline and nearby sea during daytime. The results for application domains showed that the effects of nudging were distinguished between the meteorological factors and between the time periods. When applied grid nudging until subdomain, the improvement effects of temperature and relative humidity had differential tendencies. Temperature was increased for all time, but relative humidity was increased in daytime and was decreased in nighttime. Thus, GNE case showed better result than other cases.

최근 이상기후 및 급속한 도시화로 이한 불투수 면적비율이 증가되면서 내수침수 피해가 급증하고 있다. 내수침수는 주로 내수배제의 불량으로 발생하며, 막대한 인명 및 재산피해를 야기하고 있다. 이러한 피해를 막고 효율적인 도시홍수방어시스템을 설계하기 위해서는 정확한 강우-유출 모형의 해석이 필요하지만 실제 자연 현상을 해석하는데 많은 불확실성이 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 모형의 매개변수들이 가지는 불확실성 분석을 수행하고, 불확실성 정량화 지수를 제안하였다. 도시유역의 유출해석에 사용되는 SWMM 모형의 매개변수 중 6개(유역폭, 불투수면적비율(%), 투수 및 불투수유역 조도계수, CN, 관조도계수)를 대상으로 불확실성 분석을 수행하였으며, 베타분포를 적용하여 Monte Carlo Sampling 기법으로 총 100개의 시나리오로 계산하였다. 계산결과 투수 및 불투수유역의 조도계수와 관조도계수의 총불확실성이 다른 매개변수들에 비해 크게 계산되어 조도계수값의 결정이 어려운 것을 알 수 있었으며, 불확실성 정량화 지수를 계산한 결과 관조도계수가 가장 크고 CN값이 가장 작은 것으로 계산되었다. 유역폭, 불투수면적비율, CN값은 매개변수값이 증가할수록 총유출량도 증가하였으며, 이 중 CN값의 변화에 따른 총유출량 증가량은 매개변수 증가량을 알면 거의 정확히 결정이 가능한 것으로 불확실성 정량화 지수가 계산되어 불확실성이 매우 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 관조도계수의 변화에 따라 총유출량의 변화를 결정하는 것이 가장 불확실한 것으로 계산되었으며, 총불확실성도 관조도게수가 가장 컸으므로, 도시유역의 유출 계산에 가장 큰 불확실성을 야기하는 매개변수는 관조도계수인 것으로 나타났다.

유사발생 잠재성 및 토양침식으로 인한 유사발생 위험성이 높은 것으로 평가된 내성천유역을 대상으로 강우-유출-토양침식-유사이송으로 이어지는 유역단위의 분포형 모형을 구축하였으며 유출과 유사농도 모의 결과에 주요한 영향을 미치는 조도계수 및 투수계수의 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 모의결과, 내성천유역의 토지 피복이 숲인 지역의 조도계수를 0.4에서 0.45로 변경하여 지표수 유출 유속을 감소시킴으로써 향석 지점에서의 유출곡선에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으나 유출수문곡선의 변화에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났으며 평균 유사농도 값과 유사농도의 범위에 있어서도 모의 결과가 근소하게 증가하나 유의한 변화는 없는 것으로 나타났다. 투수계수에 대한 민감도 분석 결과, 투수계수 값을 저감 시킬수록 총 유출량 및 첨두 유출량은 점차 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 유사농도 모의의 경우에도 투수계수를 저감시킬수록 모든 지점에서 평균 유사농도 및 유량에 따른 유사농도 범위가 증가하였으며, 향석 지점의 경우 투수계수를 50% 저감하였을 때 유사 농도 모의 값이 유량-유사량 관계식에 의해 계산된 값과 가장 근사한 것으로 나타났다.

In this study, the sensitivity analysis of bed changes due to the various sediment transport equations have been conducted for 80 km reach of the Lower Nakdong River using the HEC-6 which is one dimensional numerical model. The bed elevation changes according to the different sediment transport formulas were compared and analyzed quantitatively. As a result of the numerical simulation, the final bed elevation calculated by Engelund and Hansen(1967), Ackers and White(1973), and Yang(1979) formulas was similar to one another in configuration. The bed change simulated by Engelund and Hansen(1967) were greatest among them, for example, 5.5 m deposition and 2.9 m erosion for 100 years. Also, in the case of Toffaleti (1969) equation, the maximum bed deposition of 8.04 m after 100 years was induced at the 73 km location upstream of the Nakdong River Estuary Barrage. Meyer-Peter-Müller(1948) and Wilcock(2001) formulas produced the deposition only at the upstream end and there was little bed change in the downstream area. The unreal bed configuration of continuously up and down pattern was simulated by Laursen(1958) transport equation.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the sensitivity of the RMA2 model parameters reflecting the flow characteristics of stream junction and thus understand the hydraulic characteristics of the channel confluence flow. This study dealt with the input parameters of the RMA-2 model, a two-dimensional numerical analysis model widely used for researches both at home and abroad. The parameters of the RMA-2 model are roughness coefficient, turbulent diffusion coefficient, Coriolis forces latitude, Density, and mesh size. This study those parameters estimated from actual heavy rainfall, and varied the parameter size by (-)30%～+30% to review the characteristics of the flow characteristics of the channel section. Weobserved that when the ratio of the channel width was relatively small, the smaller the approaching angle was, the farther from the junctions became the generating place of the maximum flow velocity, however, when the ratio of the channel width was relatively large, the larger the approaching angle was, the farther the generating place of the maximum flow velocity from the junctions became. In particular, the distance between junctions and the place where the maximum flow velocity generated showed an absolute correlationover 90% of the relative channel width, but an inverse relationwas found when the distance to the place where the flow velocity generated was shortened as relative the channel width between the main channel and tributary increased.

The air pollutant emission is mainly caused by line sources in urban area. For example, the annually totaled air pollutant emission is known to consist of about 80% of line sources in Daegu. Hence, the appropriate assessment on the air pollutants of line sources is very important for the atmospheric environmental management in urban area. In this study, we made a comparative study to evaluate suitable dispersion model for estimating the air pollution from line sources. Two air pollution dispersion models, ISCST3 and CALINE4 were the subject of this study. The results were as follows; In the assessment of air pollution model, ISCST3 was found to have 4 times higher concentration than CALINE4. In addition, actual data obtained by measurement and estimated values by CALINE4 were generally identical. The air pollution assessment based on ISC3 model produced significantly lower values than actual data. The air pollution levels estimated by ISCST3 were very low in comparison with the observational values.

본 연구에서는 LH-OAT (Latin Hypercube Ore factor At a Time) 민감도분석 방법과 SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution at University of Arizona) 최적화 기법을 적용하여 보청천 유역에서 SWAT모형에 대한 자동보정 방법을 제시하였다. LH-OAT 방법은 전역 민감도분석과 부분 민감도 분석의 장점을 조합하여 가용매개변수 공간에 대하여 효율적으로 매개변수의 민감도 분석이 가능하게

이 연구에서는 다양한 강우조건에 따른 도시유출모형, SWMM의 매개변수들이 계산 결과치에 주는 민감도를 분석하였으며 이를 위해 3개 배수구역에 대하여 모형을 적용하였다. 첨두 유출량에 대한 민감도는 (=1.0-(첨두유출량의 최소값()/첨두유출량의 최대값()))로 나타내었으며 강우 조건으로서는 강우규모, 강우지속시간, 강우분포 등의 3가지를 채택하였다. 강우조건의 변화에 따라 전반적으로는 불투수면적비, 관로경사, 초기침투능 등이 계산 결과치에 주는 민감

관측한 유역특성 자료와 지하수 유동 매개변수 값을 변화시키면서 MODFLOW 모형으로 시뮬레이션 한 결과를 비교ㆍ분석하였으며, 민감도 분석을 통하여 매개변수들의 상대적인 중요성을 파악하였다. 투수계수, 비산출율, 비저류계수, 대수층 두께 및 양수정 위치 등의 다양한 매개변수들에 대한 지속가능개발량 반응을 분석하였다. 매개변수에 대한 민감도 분석 결과, 하천에서 지하수체로 유입하는 량과 저류량은 비산출율과 대수층 두께에 민감하였으며, 지속가능개발량은 투수