United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) specifies regulations on obtaining licenses and describes the technical position on the average waste concentration, also known as Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation Branch Technical Position (CA BTP); CA BTP helps classify blendable waste and discrete items and address concentration averaging. The technical position details are reviewed and compared in a real environment in Korea. A few cases of concentration averaging based on the application of CA BTP to domestic radioactive waste are presented, and the feasibility of the application is assessed. The radioactive waste considered herein does not satisfy the Disposal Concentration Limit (DCL) of the second-phase disposal facility while applying the preliminary classification. However, if CA BTP is applied when the radioactive waste is mixed with other radioactive waste items in a large and heavy container, it can be disposed of at the second-phase disposal facility in Gyeongju Repository. To apply the CA BTP of the U.S. NRC, it is necessary to investigate the safety assessment conditions of the US and Korea.

This paper reports the results of an experimental examination using X-rays to test annealing materials for lapped bearing steel (STB2), to confirm the validity of the weighted averaging analysis method. The distribution behavior for the sin diagram and the presence or absence of differences in the peak method, half-value breadth method, and centroid method were investigated. When lapping the annealed bearing steel (STB2) material, a residual stress state with a non-directional steep gradient appeared in the surface layer, and it was found that the weighted averaging analysis method was effective. If there is a steep stress gradient, the sin diagram is curved and the diffraction intensity distribution curve becomes asymmetric, resulting in a difference between the peak method, half-value breadth method, and centroid method. This phenomenon was evident when the stress gradient was more than 2~3 kg/mm2/μm. In this case, if the position of the diffraction line is determined using the centroid method and the weighted averaging analysis method is applied, the stress value on the surface and the stress gradient under the surface can be obtained more accurately. When the stress gradient becomes a problem, since the curvature of the sin diagram appears clearly in the region of sin > 0.5, it is necessary to increase the inclination angle  as much as possible. In the case of a lapping layer, a more accurate value can be obtained by considering  in the weighted averaging analysis method. In an isotropic biaxial residual stress state, the presence or absence of  can be determined as the presence or absence of strain for sin≈0.4.

Radioactive waste is classified into Intermediate level, low level, and very low potential based on the amount of radioactivity per unit gram, that is, the concentration limit. This method of classifying radioactivity per unit weight is not a problem if all packaged wastes are homogeneous. However, the reality is that not all waste is homogeneous. Relative hotspots may exist. Also, when several items are mixed, if one item has a relatively higher concentration than other items, it can become a relative hotspot. In Korea, even if all nuclides in a single radioactive waste package satisfy the low level concentration limit, if even one nuclide exceeds the concentration limit, the radioactive waste package becomes the intermediate level. In case of the United States, the US NRC provides regulations related to obtaining license as well as presents the technical position on the average waste concentration called Concentration Averaging and Encapsulation Branch Technical Position (CA BTP). CA BTP classifies waste into four types : Blendable Waste, Encapsulated items, Single Discrete Items, and Mixture of Discrete Items, and presents each approach to concentration averaging. In general, this is a method that suggests an acceptable ratio in case of the waste, which relatively high concentration waste is mixed. In order to apply this in Korea, we compare the classification standards for low and Intermediatelevel waste in Korea and the United States, related laws and backgrounds, and the application methods of CA BTP.

한국 남해해역의 최종빙하기 이후 해수면변화 및 시간평균화 현상을 파악하기 위하여 남동대륙붕 19개 정점, 서남해역 5개 정점에서 산출하는 패류유해 중 우점종 및 특징종 42개체에 대해 14C연대측정을 행하였다. 측정결과 동일 정점 내에서 시간평균화(Time-averaging) 현상이 나타나며 최대 11,939년까지 연대차이가 있었다. 그리고 최종빙하기 이후 남해해역에서의 해수면은 약 15,000년 전 최종빙하기시 해수면이 현재 해수면보다 약 150~160 m 하강하였으며, 이후 약 9,000년까지 해수면이 약 60m로 급격히 상승하였다. 그리고 이후 약 4,000~5,000년까지 수심 약 50~60 m에서 안정적이었으며, 3,000~4,000년 사이 또 한번의 급한 해수면 상승으로 수심이 현재 해수면보다10~20 m 낮아졌으며, 이후 현재에 이르는 것으로 생각된다.

This paper used the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with gamma distribution that takes the form of probability density functions to calibrate probabilistic forecasts of wind speed. We considered the alternative implementation of BMA, which was BMA gamma exchangeable model. This method was applied for forecasting of wind speed over Pyeongchang area using 51 members of the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG). The performances were evaluated by rank histogram, means absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score and skill score. The results showed that BMA gamma exchangeable models performed better in forecasting wind speed, compared to the raw ensemble and ensemble mean.

In this study, we analyzed the performance of calibrated probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature over Pyeongchang area in Gangwon province by using Bayeisan Model Averaging (BMA). BMA has been proposed as a statistical post-processing method and a way of correcting bias and underdispersion in ensemble forecasts. The BMA technique provides probabilistic forecast that take the form of a weighted average of Gaussian predictive probability density function centered on the bias-corrected forecast for continuous weather variables. The results of BMA to calibrate surface temperature forecast from 24-member Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) are obtained and compared with those of multiple regression. The forecast performances such as reliability and accuracy are evaluated by Rank Histogram (RH), Residual Quantile-Quantile (R-Q-Q) plot, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The results showed that BMA improves the calibration of the equal weighted ensemble and deterministic-style BMA forecasts performs better than that of the deterministic forecast using the single best member.

기후변화 모델을 통해 미래 전망에 대한 연구를 수행하는 것은 다양한 분야에서의 적응과 대응 전략을 수립하고 이상기후에 대한 영향을 최소화하고자 하는데 그 목적이 있다. 본 연구에서는 총 20개의 기후변화 모델 자료(1981∼2100년)를 수집하였으며 미래 시나리오는 RCP 4.5와 8.5시나리오를 사용하였다. 한강유역을 대상으로 지역오차보정을 통해 지역적인 스케일의 불일치를 개선하고 특히, 미래 시나리오에 대해서는 비정상성 분위사상법을 통해 미래 시나리오의 추세가 왜곡되지 않도록 하는 NSQM기법을 제안하였다. 베이지안 모델 평균기법(BMA)을 적용하여 각 관측소별로 가중치가 높은 모델만을 선별한 최적의 모델 조합을 통해 강우자료의 정확성과 신뢰도를 확보하였다. 베이지안 앙상블 강우의 R2=0.54, NSE=0.53, RMSE=90.49 mm로 단일모델에 비해 상대적으로 개선된 결과를 나타내었다. 미래 시나리오에 대한 전망결과 온실가스 배출농도가 높은 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 증가율이 RCP 4.5 시나리오에 비해 더 크게 나타났다. 또한 극치수문사상분석을 위해 GEV Scaling과 SPI가뭄지수를 이용한 홍수 및 가뭄의 IDF와 SDF곡선을 전망하였다. 확률강우량 산정 결과 관측기간의 500년 빈도, 지속시간 10분에 해당되는 강우강도가 224.1 mm/hr인 것에 비하여 RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 시나리오 각각 279.8 mm/hr, 299.7 mm/hr로 기준 시나리오에 비해 증가하는 전망 결과를 나타냈다. 가뭄의 경우, 한강유역은 가뭄에 대한 민감도가 낮은 것으로 전망되었다. 본 연구를 통해 불확실성을 줄이고 다양한 통계적인 분석결과를 제시함으로써 극치수문사상의 전망이 가능하였다. 이를 통해 수자원 변동성과 취약성을 파악하고 수자원 계획 및 운영을 위한 정보 제공에 도움을 줄 것으로 판단된다.

While the assessment of mean flow field is very important to characterize the hydrodynamic aspect of the flow regime in river, the conventional methodologies have required very time-consuming efforts and cost to obtain the mean flow field. The paper provides an efficient technique to quickly assess mean flow field by developing and applying spatial averaging method utilizing repeatedly surveyed acoustic Doppler current profiler(ADCP)’s cross-sectional measurements. ADCP has been widely used in measuring the detailed velocity and discharge in the last two decades. In order to validate the proposed spatial averaging method, the averaged velocity filed using the spatial averaging was compared with the bench-mark data computed by the time-averaging of the consistent fix-point ADCP measurement, which has been known as a valid but a bit inefficient way to obtain mean velocity field. The comparison showed a good agreement between two methods, which indicates that the spatial averaging method is able to be used as a surrogate way to assess the mean flow field. Bed shear stress distribution, which is a derived hydrodynamic quantity from the mean velocity field, was additionally computed by using both spatial and time-averaging methods, and they were compared each other so as to validate the spatial averaging method. This comparison also gave a good agreement. Therefore, such comparisons proved the validity of the spatial averaging to quickly assess mean flow field. The mean velocity field and its derived riverine quantities can be actively used for characterizing the flow dynamics as well as potentially applicable for validating numerical simulations.

다기준 의사결정 문제에서 요인간의 가중치 계산과 계산된 요인의 평가값 종합화는 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 다기준 의사결정 문제에 있어서 의사결정자의 의사전략 결합기법과 다기준의사결정 문제로의 적용을 연구하였다. 복잡한 환경에서 의사결정을 할 때 발생되는 모호함을 해결하기 위해 주관적 의견을 결합한 퍼지지합 이론을, 다기준 문제의 요인을 퍼지값으로 계층화하기 위해 계층분석법을 적용하였다. 또한, 의사결정자의 의사전략을 결합하기 위해 순위 가중치평균법을 이용하였다. 순위가 있는 가중치 평균방법은 퍼지집합의 orness 특성을 이용하여 의사결정자의 주관적 의지를 반영할 수 있는 기법으로, 순위가중치평균(OWA) 연산자에 따른 낙관적 혹은 비관적인 정도에 따라 주관적인 의도를 반영할 수 있는 방법이다. 다기준의사결정 문제의 적용사례로서 해상교통안전을 위한 대기정박지의 위치분석 문제를 본 연구에서 제시한 방법에 따라 적용하였다.