The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

In the present study, a severe outbreak of Sclerotium rot on Korean melon(Cucumis melo L. var. makuwa Makino) observed in Jinju, Korea in August of 2014 and 2015 is reported. The fruit rot disease on the surface of Korean melon fruit appeared as water soaked lesion followed by the development of large rotten areas with abundant white mycelial growth. Abundant white mycelial mats with globoid and white to brown sclerotia(1-3 mm) were also developed on stems near the soil line, and infected plants withered. The fungal pathogen was isolated on potato dextrose agar(PDA) and formed white colonies with numerous sclerotia on PDA. The sclerotia were globoid in shape, 1-3 mm in size, and white to brown in color. The mycelium formed typical clamp connection. These measurements and taxonomic characteristics were most similar to those of Sclerotium. DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the complete internal transcribed spacer rRNA gene region confirmed that the fungal isolates were Sclerotium rolfsii Saccardo. Koch’s postulates were supported by pathogenicity tests conducted on fruit. Based on mycological characteristics, pathogenicity tests, and molecular identification, the fungus was identified as Sclerotium rolfsii. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of a Sclerotium rot caused by S. rolfsii on Korean melon in Korea.

Monochamus alternatus (M. alternatus) and Monochamus saltuarius (M. saltuarius) are major vectors for Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in South Korea. When an adult, they are easily distinguishable by several morphological classification. However, it is difficult to identification between M. alternatus and M. saltuarius when they are larvae as they have very similar morphological characters. Thus, they are not easily distinguishable without expertise about Cerambycidae taxonomy. Furthermore, during epidemiological investigation, sometimes, adults or larvae would not be founded in death pine trees. For these reasons, in this experiment, we are able to identified between M. alternatus and M. saltuarius by mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene primers that are specific to 12S rRNA gene fragment of M. alternatus using larvae tissue and frass. Moreover, we had examined whether vectors that were already escaped from dead pine tree have Bursaphelenchus xylophilus or not by multiplex PCR using larva frass that was remained in dead pine tree.