이 논문은 중국의 일대일로 (Belt and Road Initiative)가 아세안 국가들에게 확산되어 중국이 이 지역에서 지배적인 세력이 될 것인가 하는 질문을 던진다. 이 문제를 탐구하기 위해 아세안 국가 지도자들의 대중국 접근과 정치적 동학, 그리고 중국의 정치군사적 세력 확대에 대한 견제라는 두 변수를 중심으로 분석할 것을 제안한다. 이 두 변수를 중심으로 분석할 때 아세안 국가의 일대일로는 중국 일방적으로 추진되는 것으로 단순화 시킬 수 없다는 것을 알 수 있다. 첫째, 아세안 개별국가 정치지도자들이 자국 경제발전의 필요와 정치적 동학에 따라 일대일로의 구체적 사업들을 받아들이고 조정하는 경우가 빈번하다. 둘째, 아세안 국가들은 중국과 경제교류를 지속하지만 동시에 정치적, 군사적으로 중국의 영향력 하에 지배되는 것을 거부하고 견제한다. 이와 같이 경제적 실리를 추구 하면서 동시에 중국의 세력 확대를 견제하는 전략을 헤징 (hedging)전략으로 설명한다. 실제 일대일로 케이스로 친중적인 미얀마와 말레이시아를 들어 이 나라 들에서 정치적 변화에 따라 일대일로 사업이 취소되고 재조정된 경우들을 살펴 본다. 이 두 나라를 비롯하여 아세안 국가들은 대부분 경제발전의 필요상 경제적으로 중국과 협력을 유지하지만 중국의 정치군사적 세력 확대로 자국이 위협 받는 것을 견제한다. 이것은 국가에 따라 차이는 있지만 헤징전략으로 설명할 수 있다. 즉, 헤징의 개념으로 설명하면, ‘경제적 실용주의’로 경제협력을 추진하며, 다른 한편 정치군사적으로는 중국을 견제하여 다른 인도-태평양 국가들과 협력하는 ‘간접적 밸런싱’의 전략을 취한다는 것이다. 아세안은 중국의 지배적 영향 하에 들어가기를 원치 않으며 ‘아세안 중심성’을 유지하려 할 것이다.

This paper analyzed what factors affect increased import from ASEAN agricultural products. This study uses multi-countries gravity model approach with a dataset of agricultural import for the period of 2004 - 2014 and several explanatory variables, and then estimate it using the random-effect panel Tobit. The results revealed that agriculture trade in Korea is influenced by the trade partner’s per capita GDP, population, distance from Korea, FTA preferential taxrate, trade percentage of GDP, agriculture percentage of GDP, the number of immigrants from ASEAN countries, and normal track dummy variables etc. It is found that FTA taxrate affect trade between both partners that can occur loss in agricultural industry. Therefore, applying deliberate standards strategies for normal track selection for future FTA negotiation.

본 연구는 OECD 국가 대 중국, 한국, 아세안 5개국의 해외직접투자 입지선택에 미친 영향을 분석하였 다. 2003년부터 2020년까지의 연도별 데이터를 사용하여 단순고정효과와 이원고정효과 분석 방법으 로 실증분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과는 현지국의 경제 수준이 해외직접투자에 긍정적인 영향을 미친 다는 것으로 나타났다. 새 천년 이후 중국 시장이 개방되면서 선진국과 자본 풍부한 국가들은 해외직 접투자에 대한 선택이 많아졌다. 국가 간의 무역량이 증가하면서 싱가포르의 지리적 우세를 점차 나타 내고 있다. 또한 아세안 5개국을 대상으로 단순고정효과와 이원고정효과에 대한 분석 방법을 이용하였 다. 아세안 5개국의 경제 수준은 해외직접투자 입지선택에 대한 투자 가능성을 평가하는 중요한 지표 라는 분석 결과가 나타났다.

This paper examines how macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate differences, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth and external debt growth, affect capital flight in the ASEAN-8 countries. We apply a panel data model with fixed effect estimation for the data for eight countries from the period 1994 to 2018. We use the residual approach used by the World Bank to measure the value of capital flight. The results show that the interest rate differences, exchange rates, economic growth and foreign debt growth had a positive and significant effect on outward capital flight. A further implication of this finding is that the interest rate differences, exchange rate, economic growth and foreign debt growth are factors that trigger an increase in capital outflow in the ASEAN-8 countries. Nonetheless, inflation rate is not considered to be the main factor influencing capital flight, as average inflation in the ASEAN-8 countries remains relatively stable. This paper will be beneficial for policymakers in the ASEAN-8 countries and encourage them to constantly pay attention to these four variables, as they significantly influence capital flight, whereas they can disregard the impact of the inflation variable that is not significant in influencing capital flight.

The neoclassical economic supporters have suggested that foreign direct investment and raw material (e.g., coal, electricity, gas, and oil) are critical economic growth inputs. Few previous studies have analyzed the relationship between foreign direct investment and energy consumption on economic growth. However, existing studies usually have applied the frequentist inference. The limitation of the frequentist inference is that, if the coefficient of the independent variable is not yet significant, then conclusions might be unreliable. By applying the Bayesian approach, the main aim of this study is to revisit the impact of foreign direct investment, electricity consumption, and urbanization on economic growth in six ASEAN countries from 1980 to 2016. The obtained outcome shows that the impact of electricity consumption is evident and positive on economic growth in both frequentist and Bayesian inferences. However, the influence of foreign direct investment is not identified by frequentist inference, while Bayesian inference provides evidence that foreign direct investment is a moderately positive impact on economic growth. The empirical result from Bayesian inference contributes to the literature on foreign direct investment modeling and could be of significant importance for a more efficient foreign direct investment attracting and achieve sustainability in the long-term.

The paper examines the role of some determinants of economics, politics and institutions on the budget deficit volatility in some countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. The paper uses the fixed effects model (FEM) and the random effects model (REM) to investigate panel data of these countries in the period of 1990-2018. Moreover, the study also explores ordinary least square (OLS) to analyze time-series data for each country in the same period to make comparison among them. The economic data is collected from international financial statistics and world development indicators. The data on political variables are collected from International Country Risk Data Guide (ICRG). The empirical results both confirm that corruption and political stability are important indicators of budget deficit. Besides, the paper suggests authorities should pay more attention on improving the institutional setup of the economy in order to avoid high and unstable deficit. The findings offer new insight on the budget deficit in essence and suggest that the most important thing need to be done ahead is to strongly implement anti-corruption actions. By doing so, the status of budget deficit would be remarkably improved immediately.

This study aims to empirically examine the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) and corruption on the development of public-service sectors in 10 ASEAN countries. It then investigates whether this relationship is different between two FDI compositions including greenfield FDI and FDI in the form of cross-border merger and acquisitions (M&As). Using a panel database of 10 ASEAN countries during the period 1996-2015 from various sources including the World Development Indicators of the World Bank and UNCTAD, we first find that FDI strongly and positively contributes to the development of the public-service sectors in the recipient nations, except for the electricity sector. However, we show that this relationship is dependent on the type of FDI modes of entry. Specifically, while greenfield investment exerts a beneficial influence on the development of telecommunication and transportation sectors, cross-border M&A has no effect on these sectors, perhaps because of the distinct differences among three public service sectors. Finally, we found that in a highly corrupt environment, aggregate FDI might have no influence on all three public-service sectors, possibly because the two contradictory influences of the interaction terms between corruption and two FDI sub-types seem to cancel each other out.

The study aims to investigate the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore. This paper focuses on the Vietnam Stock Market and other two countries of ASEAN, namely Singapore and Thailand. Data was collected over the period from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2018, daily returns for each of the securities. This paper uses the time series method, namely ADF test, Granger Causality and VAR approach to find evidences of the overconfidence effect in Vietnam in relation to some ASEAN markets. The results show similarities between the observed countries with slight variations, with focus on Vietnam market. In general concrete evidences of overconfidence were found in both Vietnamese and Singaporean markets, in which Singaporean investors show higher degree of overconfidence than Vietnamese investors. Overconfidence is not as clear in Thai market, however a direct causal link from increased returns to increased investor confidence was found. From the model deployed in the paper, there are reasons to conclude that Thai investors are under-confident. The findings of the study shed lights into the existence of overconfidence bias in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore on a comparative basis, provide more insights and implications for future research in this new and rising field of research.

Along with the economic globalization and network generalization, this provides a good opportunity to the development of cross-border ecommerce trade. Based on this background, this paper sets ASEAN countries as an example to exploit the determinants of cross-border ecommerce trade including the export and the import, respectively. The panel data from the year of 1998 to 2016 will be employed to estimate the relationship between cross-border e-commerce trade and relevant variables under the dynamic ordinary least squares and the error correction model. The findings of this paper show that there is a long-run relationship between cross-border e-commerce trade and relevant variables. Generally speaking, the GDP(+) and real exchange rate(-export & +import) have an effect on cross-border e-commerce trade. However, the population (+) and the terms of trade (-) only have an effect on cross-border e-commerce import. The empirical evidences show that the GDP and the real exchange rate always affect the development of cross-border e-commerce trade. Therefore, all ASEAN countries should try their best to develop the economic growth and focus on the exchange rate regime so as to meet the need of crossborder e-commerce trade development.