본 연구는 중국 상해 및 심천 증권거래소 A-Share 상장기업 단기자금 조달구조의 결정요인을 실증적으로 분 석한다. 본 연구의 초점은 기업간신용의 차입비중에 금융경색 및 재무제약 요인이 미치는 영향을 추정하는 것이다. 본 연구에서 자금시장 전반의 금융경색을 지표하는 변수로 대출-예금금리차가 추정에 포함되었다. 개별 기업의 재무제약 변수로 기존연구를 반영하여 자산총계, Whited-Wu Index, Kaplan-Zingales Index 등이 가설검 증 변수로 추정에 포함되었다. 본 연구의 실증분석에서 중국 상해 및 심천 증권거래소 A-Share 상장기업의 단기 자금 조달구조 결정요인으로 금융경색은 기업간신용 차입비중에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정되어 중국 기 업의 기업간신용 차입비중이 경기순응적, 시장순응적임을 제시한다. 재무제약은 기업간신용 차입비중에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정되었으며 기업간신용이 단기자금 조달수단 중에서 “열등한 대체재”로 기능함을 시사하는 것으로 여타 국가들의 기업을 분석한 기존연구를 지지하는 분석결과가 도출되었다. 운전자본관리 측면에서는 만기일치가설을 지지하는 추정결과가 도출되었다. 본 연구는 불완전패널구조를 보이는 중국 기업의 재무데이터를 분석함에 있어서 동적패널모형을 추정하여 통계적으로 유의하고 일관성 있는 실증결과를 제시한다.

The prevalence of unsecured consumer credit is conducive to the normalization of credit and debt in consumer culture (Peñaloza & Barnhart, 2011). Credit facilities not only enable consumers to achieve intertemporal borrowing possibilities, but also empower individuals to become active members in contemporary consumer culture (Bernthal, Crockett, & Rose, 2005). However, viewing credit and debt as “normal” has often put consumers in precarious financial positions that ultimately lead to longterm struggle of debt repayment and financial deprivation (Fischer, 2013). As Peñaloza and Barnhart (2011) observe, “as phenomena normalize, they merit less conscious attention in being taken for granted” (p.760), which could lead to a fallacious sense of optimism amongst those who may be financially vulnerable. Consequently, the normalization of credit and debt presents a moral challenge in the credit market in that it disrupts consumer capacity to engage in optimal financial socialization. The normalization of debt practice is especially relevant to those who are in the process of learning to use financial tools and to adapt to their accepted practices. Thus, this research pays specific attention to young consumers aged 18-24, as the majority of the population tend to encounter their first stage of financial socialization within this age group. For example, 18 years is the minimum eligibility age for opening a bank account, applying for credit card and using other financial products without parental supervision. Despite being digital natives who benefit from valuable access to offline and online financial decision-making guidance, young consumers are also statistically more likely to experience financial vulnerability than any other age groups. For instance, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (2017) finds that 52% of 18 to 24 year-olds reported low confidence in their ability to manage money and knowledge of financial matters – the worst amongst all adult financial consumers. One in ten people in this age group are also reporting financial difficulties in meeting their day-to-day living expenses and servicing their debts (Financial Conduct Authority, 2017). The young consumer cohort also represents a lucrative target for the credit industry. For example, previous studies find that the young consumers have greater lifetime earning potential than other age groups and greater likelihood to develop long-term brand loyalty towards their first credit card (Braunsberger, Lucas, & Roach, 2004; Szmigin & O’Loughlin, 2010; Warwick & Mansfield, 2000). However, credit card marketing efforts to this market segment has harboured concerns over the youths’ long-term financial welfare due to their predatory practices on these inexperienced consumers. A major criticism of the credit card targeting towards youths is on the promotion of positive, aspirational images of credit card use, which obscures the negative consequences of debt. Moreover, credit card marketing often fails to display transparent credit pricing structures. For example, consumers often do not realize that spending on a 0% balance transfer deal when the promotional period subsides will incur higher interest than non-promotional interest rate (Money Advice Trust, 2009). Despite a growing interest on youth financial literacy (e.g., Richins 2011), the literature remain disconnected and fragmented when it comes to the learning process that individuals go through in order to become financially capable consumers. Such knowledge is valuable for policy developers who seek to enhance young consumers’ financial learning. Following extant research, we define financial socialization as an experiential process influenced by influential agents who interact with, teach and guide individual’s attitude formation and behavior around money (Pinto, 2005; Shim, Barber, Card, Xiao, & Serido, 2010; Ward, 1974). The present research thus aims to examine the impact of debt normalization on the consumers’ financial learning and socialization. In doing so, this study offers important implications in providing insights into how marketing practice can improve their communication strategies and how public policy can strengthen intervention to improve consumer financial decisions.

최근 들어 신용카드사들이 판매하는 채무면제 및 채무유예(Debt Cancellation and Debt Suspension, 이하 DCDS) 서비스 상품에 대한 민원이 점차적으로 증가하고 있다. 그런데 이러한 민원의 증가에도 불구 하고 법적 규제에 어려움을 느끼고 있다. 금감원의 경우에는 DCDS 서비 스 상품을 카드사의 부가서비스로 보아 상품심사 대상에서 제외하고 있 고, 보험업계에서는 동 상품이 보험상품으로 포함되어 있지 않아 규제에 한계가 있다고 한다. 이에 본 논문은 DCDS 서비스 상품에 대한 실태 및 문제점, 그리고 DCDS 서비스 상품이 보험업법 상의 보험상품인 지의 여 부를 동 상품이 오래전부터 판매되고 있는 미국의 제도와의 비교 검토를 통하여 그 문제점의 검토와 더불어 그에 대한 개선방안을 마련하고자 하 였다. 결론으로 동 상품은 보험상품으로 보기는 어려우며, 이렇게 될 경 우 금감원은 동 상품을 카드사의 부가서비스가 아닌 동 상품의 본질적 요소로 보아야 하며, 따라서 상품심사의 대상이 되어야 한다고 본다. 그 럴 경우 동 상품의 현재 판매 방식은 불완전판매가 될 경우가 많으므로 이에 대한 적절한 규제를 하여야 할 것으로 보인다.

본 연구는 글로벌금융위기와 유럽재정위기에 따라 PIIGS 국가들의 국채스프레드에 미치는 영향과 신흥시장 국 가의 거시경제지표가 국채수익률에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 또한 한국의 국채시장에 대한 외국인투자자의 국 적별 채권투자 행태를 결정하는 요인을 분석하고, 외국인투자가 국내 국채시장에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석 하였다. 주요 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 유럽재정위기와 관련된 구제금융 지원관련 부정적인 뉴스는 독일 국채수익률 대비 PIIGS 국가들의 국채스프레드를 상승시켰다. 또한 금융취약성의 증가, 글로벌위험도 스프레드 를 상승시켰다. 둘째, PIIGS 국가와 신흥시장 국가의 거시경제지표, 특히 GDP 대비 정부부채 비율의 상승 또는 재정수지의 악화는 국채수익률의 상승을 가져왔다. 또한 미국 국채수익률의 상승에 따른 유동성위험 전이효과와, 순수기대가설 내지 인플레위험의 국채수익률 반영 현상도 나타났다. 셋째, 한국 국채에 투자한 외국인의 국적별 로 미국 투자자는 차익거래 유인과 국채의 유동성위험을 중시하는 반면, 유로존과 중국 투자자는 한국의 국가신 용위험을 중시하는 것으로 나타났다. 넷째, 외국인투자자의 단기 채권 순매수의 경우에만 국내외 이자율 차이와 유의한 양(+)의 관계를 나타내서, 국내 채권수익률의 상대적인 상승 내지 가격 하락이 외국인 매수를 가져오는 것으로 보인다. 다섯째, 미국 및 유로존 투자자의 국채 순매수 증가는 국채수익률의 유의한 하락을 가져왔다. 여 섯째, 외국인투자자의 만기별 순매수 변화는 단기 국채 순매수의 경우에만 유의하게 단기, 중기, 장기 등 모든 만 기의 국채수익률 변화와 유의한 음(-)의 관계가 나타났다.

We try to test the pecking order theory of Korean fisheries firm’s capital structure using debt capacity. At first, we estimate the debt capacity as the probability of assigning corporate bond rating from credit-rating agencies. We use logit regression model to estimate this probability as a proxy of debt capacity. The major results of this study are as follows. Firstly, we can confirm the fisheries firm’s financing behaviour which issues new debt securities for financial deficit. Empirical test of SSM model indicates that the higher probability of assigning corporate bond rating, the higher the coefficient of financial deficit. Especially, high probability group follows this result exactly. Therefore, the pecking order theory of fisheries firm’s capital structure applies well for high probability group which means high debt capacity. It also applies for medium and low probability group, but their significances are not good. Secondly, the most of fisheries firms in high probability group issue new debt securities for their financial deficit. Low probability group’s fisheries firms also issue new debt securities for their financial deficit within the limit of their debt capacity, but beyond debt capacity they use equity financing for financial deficit. Therefore, the pecking order theory on debt capacity come into existence well in high probability group.

본 연구는 한국과 인도 상장기업 1,191개를 대상으로 2002년부터 2010년까지의 자료를 사용하여 양국 기업의 자본구조 및 부채만기 결정요인에 관한 연구를 수행하였다. 자본구조를 결정하는 기업 특성요인들에 대한 분석결과는 첫째, 이익과 기업규모는 양국 간에 일치함을 보이는데, 총자산영업이익율은 부채비율과 부(-)의 관계와 자본조달순서이론(pecking order theory)에 부합함을 보인반면, 기업규모는 정(+)의 관계와 상충이론(trade-off theory) 및 대리인이론(agency theory)에 부합함을 보인다. 둘째, 유형자산과 성장기회는 양국 간에 불일치함을 보이는데, 유형자산비율은 한국기업의 경우 부(-)의 관계와 자본조달순서이론에 부합함을, 인도기업의 경우 정(+)의 관계와 상충이론 및 대리인이론에 부합함을 보이고, 시장가 대 장부가 비율은 시장가 부채비율에 대해서 양국 모두 부(-)의 관계와 상충이론, 대리인이론 및 자본조달순서이론에 부합함을 보인다. 부채만기를 결정하는 기업 특성요인들에 대한 분석결과는 첫째, 유형자산, 이익 및 기업규모는 한국기업의 경우 예상대로 부(-)의 부호를 보여 이들 변수가 커질수록 부채만기가 길어짐을 보이나, 인도기업의 경우에는 유의한 관계를 보이지 않는다. 둘째, 성장기회는 한국기업의 경우 예상과 달리 정(+)의 관계를 보이는 반면, 인도기업의 경우는 예상대로 부(-)의 관계를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 인도 재벌기업이 한국 재벌기업보다 부채비율이 유의하게 높은 것으로 나타나고 있는데, 이는 한국재벌 대주주 지분율이 인도재벌에 비해 낮을 뿐만 아니라 재벌에 대한 감시비용이 더 높기 때문에 한국 재벌의 경우 부채의 대리인비용이 인도 재벌보다 크기 때문인 것으로 생각된다. 이와 같이 양국 기업의 자본구조와 부채만기가 다른 이유는 첫째, 인도는 영국의 영향을 받아 영미법(common law) 에 기반을 두고 있고 법적으로는 투자자 보호가 잘 되어 있으나 실질적으로는 정부와 사법부의 부패와 비효율적인 법 시스템으로 인해 자본시장을 통한 자금조달이 미미하고, 둘째 인도의 은행예금/GDP 비중과 대출/예금 비중이 우리나라에 비해 매우 낮을 뿐만 아니라 국영은행 위주의 중장기성 정책자금 대출이 많이 이루어지고 있는 관계로 은행을 통한 자금조달에도 한계가 있고, 셋째 인도는 기업간 신용(trade credit)이나 관계회사 대출과 같은 대체자금(alternative financing)에 대한 의존도가 매우 높고, 넷째 인도의 법인세와 이자 및 배당소득세 제도가 레버리지로 인한 세금효과를 더 크게 만들기 때문인 것으로 보인다.

파산재산과 파산변제순위는 어느 나라에서든 파산법상 가장 중요한 문제이다. 2007년 6월 1일 시행된 중국 신 파산법은 파산재산의 범위에 대하여 를 택하여 파산신청 수리 당시 채무자가 소유하고 있는 재산의 전부와 파산신청이 수리된 당시부터 파산절차 종결 전까지 채무자가 취득한 재산을 포함시켰으며 還取權·取得權·別除權·相計權 그리고 取消權과 무효행위제도에 대한 규정으로 파산재산의 범위를 규범화하게 하고 있다. 그리고 중국 파산법은 채무자의 파산재산의 변제순위에 대하여 대체적으로 파산비용과 공익채권, 근로자임금, 국가세금 그리고 일반채권의 순서대로 변제하는 것을 규정하고 있다. 입법과정에 논란이 많았던 담보물권과 임금채권의 변제순위 문제에 대하여 은행의 대표는 시장 거래의 안전과 질서를 유지하기 위하여 임금채권보다 담보물권을 먼저 변제하여야 한다는 주장을 가지는데 반해 노동조합 측은 중국이 개발도상국으로써 사회의 안정을 위하여 정책성 파산의 조치를 택하여 담보물권보다 임금채권을 먼저 변제하여야 한다는 견해를 가지고 있다. 논의 끝에 중국 신파산법은 이 법이 공포된 날 전에 발생한 임금채권은 담보물권 보다 우선 변제순위를 가지며 이 법이 공포된 날 후에 발생한 임금채권은 우선권이 없는 것으로 규정하였다.

The study aims to investigate the impact of debt on corporate profitability in the context of Vietnam. The paper investigates the impact of debt on corporate profitability in non-finance listed companies on the Vietnam stock market. The panel data of the research sample includes 118 non-financial listed companies on the Vietnam stock market for a period of nine years, from 2009 to 2017. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is employed to address econometric issues and to improve the accuracy of the regression coefficients. In this research, corporate profitability is measured as the return of EBIT on total assets. The debt ratio is a ratio that indicates the proportion of a company’s debt to its total assets. Firm sizes, tangible assets, growth rate, and taxes are control variables in the study. The empirical results show that debt has a statistically significant negative effect on corporate profitability. The result also shows this effect is stronger in a non-linear (concave) way, we show that the debt ratio has nonlinear effects on corporate profitability. From this, experimental evidence shows that the optimal debt ratio is 38.87%. This evidence provides a new insight to managers of the non-finance companies on how to improve the firm’s profitability with debt.

This study aims to examine the antecedent factors of debt policy on the influence of firm growth on firm value. There was a total of 19 companies involved accounting for 95 observational data from a population of 169 companies listed on the Kompas 100 Index of the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2018. The data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, classic assumption tests, multiple regression, and hypothesis testing. The results prove that the firm growth, proxied by asset growth or sales growth, did not have a significant influence on the debt policy. Further, there was no significant influence of debt policy on firm value when using debt ratio and also dividend policy as a control variable. In contrast, there was a positive and significant influence on the firm value when using debt to equity ratio proxy, both with or without using the control variable. Therefore, the debt policy was not proven as an antecedent on the influence of firm growth on firm value. This finding implies that there was a tendency for the company management to adopt the policy, which would increase the debt ratio to increase the investors’ confidence in the stock market and investors neglect the company’s dividend policy.

This study investigates the causal relationship between public and private external debt and economic growth in developing countries. Our model includes 18 selected Asian developing and transition economies from 1995 thru 2019. We employ the dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods, pooled mean group (PMG), robust cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL), and pairwise panel causality test. The results of PMG and CS-ARDL show the existence of causality between external debt and economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. The pairwise Granger causality test found the bidirectional causal relationship runs from total external debt, public external debt, and private external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. The results showed first the existence of causality in the short-run and long-run between external debt and economic growth and the second, bi-directional causality that runs from external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. Both the dynamic models and robust estimator found the same inferences about the impact of main variables on economic growth in Asian developing and transition economies. The findings of this study suggest to assure debt management, investment in productive sectors, increase domestic savings, decrease external dependency, and focus on international trade.

The aim of this study is to find out the time-series nexus of public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. For an upper-middle income country, Malaysia had experienced over 50% ratio of debt to GDP since 2009 until now. The question arises is whether this trend is healthy to the economy. With a focus into the debt-to-GDP ratio from 1970-2015, this study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. This study used secondary data by collecting time-series data (1970-2015) from the World Bank Data and Bank Negara Malaysia. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied in this study to examine the relationship between debt and economic growth. Based on ARDL framework, it shows that there is a long-run effect between the debt and economic growth in Malaysia. While the significance value of Error Correction Term shows that there is a long-run adjustment in the short run. Generally, this study found government expenditures, in the long run, strongly influence the GDP per capita. Through the findings, the government expenditures could increase the GDP per capita. The study also reveals that any increment of the debt ratio will result in reduction of the GDP per capita.

This study aims to investigate whether Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance can help companies gain more bank unsecured loans. Additionally, this study analyzes the moderating effect of firm size and industry characteristics. Data was collected through the case of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China between 2009 and 2018 with 5373 firmyear observations. The results of multivariable regression analysis show that good CSR performance exhibits a strong positive impact on unsecured debt, including short-term, long-term, and total unsecured debt, which indicates that corporate with good CSR performance can borrow more unsecured debt. further research shows that this effect is more pronounced for small enterprises and firms operating in heavy-polluting industries. Additionally, research on the impact mechanism finds that good CSR performance can help mitigate information asymmetry between borrower and lender, reduce moral hazard of borrower, and obtain support from key stakeholders, and therefore reduces the risk of default. The findings of this study suggest that firms with good CSR performance exhibit a preference for unsecured debt, but decline to provide collateral for debt. Overall, we emphasize and illustrate the important role of corporate CSR in bank credit financing.

This objective of this study is to enrich the literature by the debt ratio and enterprise performance of Joint stock companies of Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin). The debt ratio is an important index of capital structure, and it influences and decides the enterprise performance. Therefore, the determination of reasonable debt ratio level is beneficial to the stable operation of Vinacomin’s enterprises. Based on the research conclusion about the effect on capital structure of debt ratio from domestic and foreign scholar, collecting data from 2014-2018 of Vinacomin’s enterprises as a research sample, the article conducts research on the relationship between debt ratio and business performance of Vinacomin, as measured by return on total Assets. In addition, the study uses free cash flow, company size , growth opportunity, investment opportunities, operating costs to sales ratio as control variables.The study shows the debt ratio of Joint stock companies of Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited has a negative effect on the enterprise performance. Furthermore, the research results of the article are references for Vinacomin’ enterprises in the course of production and business activities, determining a reasonable debt ratio, and improving the operational performance of enterprises.

In this study, an empirical analysis of 55 ship finance cases executed by a specific ship finance bank from 2009 to 2016 during the recession period was conducted. The purpose of this study was to find the factors affecting changes in the debt performance of Korean shipping companies. The main factors were the loan nature (investment purpose, loan-to-value (LTV), syndicated loans, loan terms, put-option, balloon, and spread), financial nature (total assets turnover, net profit-to-sales ratio , debt ratio, quick ratio, total borrowing, bonds payable to total assets, interest expenses-to-sales ratio, debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), and total assets), and the company nature (company age, chief executive officer’s (CEO's) shares, and listing status). In this study, the factors affecting the debt repayment capability of domestic shipping companies (loan nature, financial nature, and company nature) were verified. The credit rating was used to measure the dependent variable, debt repayment ability. The variables of investment purpose, put-option, balloon, and spread in the loan nature, debt ratio in the financial nature, and the CEO's shares and company age in the company nature were found to be significant.

This paper analyzes factors affecting the debt maturity structure of enterprises listed on the Vietnam stock market. The panel data of research sample includes 549 non-financial listed enterprises on the Vietnam stock market from 2009 to 2019. The Generalized Least Square (GLS) tool is employed to address econometric issues and to improve the accuracy of the regression coefficients. In this research, debt maturity structure is the dependent variable. Capital structures, fixed assets, liquidity, firm size, asset maturity, profitability, corporate income tax, gross domestic product, inflation rate, credit growth scale are independent variables in the study. The model results show, that among the factors affecting the structure of debt maturity, the capital structure, asset structure, and firm size have the highest estimation coefficients, which shows that capital structure, asset structure, and firm size plays an important role in the decision-making process of debt maturity structure. The empirical results show that there are differences in the impact of these factors on the debt maturity structures in state-owned enterprises and non-state enterprises listed on the Vietnam stock market. The findings of this article are useful for business administrators, helping business managers make the right financial decisions to determine the target debt maturity structure in enterprises.

Although the corporate governance plays a crucial role in protecting shareholder wealth, the effect of corporate governance on cost of debt is unclear. On one hand, the corporate governance reduces asymmetric information between corporate and external investor including debtholder leading to a decreasing in cost of debt financing. On the other hand, bondholders require higher rate of return for an improvement corporate governance. Hence, this study aims to investigate the relationship between the mechanism to improve corporate governance namely board effectiveness and the cost of debt in an emerging market. As we aim to explore the relationship between cost of debt and board effectiveness, we select corporation in Thailand as our sample because the businesses in Thailand are major debt-financing. Hence, our sample include listed firm in Stock Exchange of Thailand between 2007 and 2016. Our main findings support the sub-optimal investment hypothesis in that improved board effectiveness is associated with higher cost of borrowing. In addition, we find that the number of board member—board size, the number of board meeting, and the percentage of non-executive on audit committee play are positively associated with the cost of debt financing. Furthermore, we perform two-stage-least square (2SLS) to ensure that our results are far from endogeneity issue.

This paper examines the impact of gender on access to debt finance among Vietnamese enterprises. The paper investigates data and variables retrieved from the World Bank Enterprise Survey dataset using five Probit models. The regression results suggest that there exist more unfavourable debt financing conditions for women-led firms (WLF), measured as a lower probability of having loan applications fully approved. Firm’s age, working sector, and perception of access to finance as a difficulty are found to have explanatory power on the discrimination. More importantly, the perception of debt finance as a difficulty or firms’ level of confidence significantly explains the variance of the dependent variable of probability of loan approval, or gender effect would be more pronounced if the firm already has a low level of confidence. The paper also contributes in testing for the gender effect on Vietnamese enterprises from different sectors and scale, unlike other prior research papers focusing on specific sectors and/or small and medium enterprises only. The findings are highly useful for Vietnamese credit institutions to set out a specific business policy to attract more WLFs and help promoting gender equality in the working environment, especially in debt financing, which is often neglected in existing regulation and policy frameworks.

This research seeks to determine the influence of investment opportunity set (IOS); profitability (Return on Assets - ROA), liquidity, business risk and firm size on debt policy. We used 42 manufacturing companies registered on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (Bursa Efek Indonesia) as object research. We used purposive sampling method to determined samples, consider the period observation from 2012 to 2016, and produce 168 units analysis. Data analysis uses the multiple regressions with the SPSS tools. The results of the study found that companies’ debt policies in Indonesia are negatively affected by the liquidity. Investment opportunity set (IOS) has negative effect on debt policy. Meanwhile, ROA, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), and firm size of a company has no impact on debt policy. These findings indicate that Indonesian manufacture companies do not see the high investment opportunity set and profitability as a policy basis for increasing debt. Moreover, the high profitability also does not cause companies to increase their debt ratio. Our study indicates that Indonesian manufacture companies use internal funds to fund their investment. This finding is a concern for creditors, as they can now see the ability of the companies, and especially their performance, in determining their credit policies.

The study examines the effects of growth opportunities, debt maturity and liquidity risk on leverage, making use of a large panel of Chinese listed firms. Research on capital structure has broadened its scope from a single capital structure decision (the debt/equity choice) to various attributes of the debt in firms’ capital structure. We use the system Generalized Method of Moments estimator to control for unobserved heterogeneity and the potential endogeneity of regressors. We find a negative relationship between growth opportunities and leverage. Further, we find that while the proportion of short-term debt attenuates the negative effect of growth opportunities on leverage, it negatively affects leverage as predicted by the liquidity risk hypothesis. When we distinguish between state owned firms and private controlled firms, we find evidence that these effects are only relevant to private controlled firms. However, our analysis indicates that the economic implication of liquidity risk effect is much lower for Chinese firms than that observed in the literature for US firms. Our study suggests that these differences can be explained by differences in the institutional environment in which firms operate. This finding related to Diamond’s (1991) liquidity risk hypothesis extends our understanding of the relationship between liquidity risk and the debt maturity choice.

The paper aims to combine balance sheet analysis at the firm level with the International Monetary Fund’s public debt sustainability assessment framework to assess state-owned enterprises’ (SOE) leverage as a contingent liability to the public sector. Based on company data and the interest coverage ratio as a measure of debt at risk, aggregate baseline scenarios are projected to gauge the magnitude of SOE debt as a contingency. SOE’s financial and debt ratios are first bootstrapped to generate firm-level distributions and then averaged into a fan chart of the economy-wide SOE contingent liability. Applied to the People’s Republic of China as an example, the study finds that by the end of 2015 SOE leverage had grown to a substantial liability. However arbitrary the assumptions underlying these projections, it would appear that even if authorities had to mop up as much as 20% of SOE debt at risk gone bad, this would have been manageable at roughly 2.7% of the gross domestic product in 2016 or 5.5% by 2021. This projection framework is fully amenable to alternative assumptions and settings, which makes it a useful analytical tool to monitor contingent liabilities from non-financial corporate debt that have been building in emerging and advanced economies alike.