이 연구는 한국의 유가증권시장과 코스닥시장의 비금융업종 기업을 대상으로 기업의 비대칭적 환노출과 기업의 주가급락위험 간의 관계를 분석하였다. 분석 기간은 2009년부터 2021년까지이다. 분석 결과 환율이 상승하는 경우 주가가 크게 하락하는 특성의 비대칭적 환노출이 있는 기업의 경우 주가급락위험이 감소하는 결과를 확인하 였다. 이러한 결과는 환율이 상승하는 경우 기업의 주가가 하락하는 정도가, 환율이 하락하는 경우 주가가 상승 하는 정도보다 큰 것으로 시장에서 확인되어 있는 경우 경영자는 환율 상승과 주가 하락에 관련된 정보를 은닉하기 보다는 환노출을 관리하는 선택을 하게 되고, 시장에서도 이러한 기업들의 환율변동과 주가 간의 관계에 관심을 갖게 되어 환율변동의 영향이 신속하게 주가에 반영되기 때문에 주가급락위험이 오히려 감소하는, 비대칭적 환노출 의 주가급락위험 감소 효과가 나타나기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. 그러나 평균적인 관계와는 달리 비대칭 환노출이 있는 기업의 경우 환율 상승에 따른 주가급락위험 증가의 가능성이 있음도 확인할 수 있었다. 이 연구의 분석 결과 는 환노출이 있는 기업의 경우 환노출과 관련된 정보를 시장에 충분히 공지하는 것이 주가급락위험 예방의 차원 에서 중요할 수 있음을 확인시켜 준다.

Modern investment theory has empirically proved that stock returns can be explained by several factors such as market risk, firm size, and book-to-market ratio. Other unknown factors affecting stock returns are also believed to still exist yet to be found. We believe that one of such factors is the operational efficiency of firms in transforming inputs to outputs, considering the fact that operations is a fundamental and primary function of any type of businesses. To support this belief, this study intends to empirically study the relationship between firm efficiency and stock price performance. Firm efficiency is measured using data envelopment analysis (DEA) with inputs and outputs obtained from financial statements. We employ cross-efficiency evaluation to enhance the discrimination power of DEA with a secondary objective function of aggressive formulation. Using the CAPM-based performance regression model, we test the performance of equally weighted portfolios of different sizes selected based upon DEA cross-efficiency scores along with a buy & hold trading strategy. For the empirical test, we collect financial data of domestic firms listed in KOSPI over the period of 2000~2016 from well-known financial databases. As a result, we find that the porfolios with highly efficient firms included outperform the benchmark market portfolio after controlling for the market risk, which indicates that firm efficiency plays a important role in explaining stock returns.

This study conducted to predict the stock market prices based on the assumption that internet news articles might have an impact and effect on the rise and fall of stock market prices. The internet news articles were tested to evaluate the accuracy by comparing predicted values of the actual stock index and the forecasting models of the companies. This paper collected stock news from the internet, and analyzed and identified the relationship with the stock price index. Since the internet news contents consist mainly of unstructured texts, this study used text mining technique and multiple regression analysis technique to analyze news articles. A company H as a representative automobile manufacturing company was selected, and prediction models for the stock price index of company H was presented. Thus two prediction models for forecasting the upturn and decline of H stock index is derived and presented. Among the two prediction models, the error value of the prediction model ① is low, and so the prediction performance of the model ① is relatively better than that of the prediction model ②. As the further research, if the contents of this study are supplemented by real artificial intelligent investment decision system and applied to real investment, more practical research results will be able to be developed.

Pairs trading is a type of arbitrage investment strategy that buys an underpriced security and simultaneously sells an overpriced security. Since the 1980s, investors have recognized pairs trading as a promising arbitrage strategy that pursues absolute returns rather than relative profits. Thus, individual and institutional traders, as well as hedge fund traders in the financial markets, have an interest in developing a pairs trading strategy. This study proposes pairs trading rules (PTRs) created from a price ratio between securities (i.e., stock index futures) using rough set analysis. The price ratio involves calculating the closing price of one security and dividing it by the closing price of another security and generating Buy or Sell signals according to whether the ratio is increasing or decreasing. In this empirical study, we generate PTRs through rough set analysis applied to various technical indicators derived from the price ratio between KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 index futures. The proposed trading rules for pairs trading indicate high profits in the futures market.

In the U.S., the Super Bowl attracts more viewers and media attention for its advertising than any other single event for the year (Tomkovick et al., 2011). Previous research focuses on factors of the effectiveness of Super Bowl ads. A majority of these studies explores their impact on short-term effectiveness measures such as recall, buzz, or, most commonly, ad likeability (e.g., Cheong and Kim, 2012; Li, 2010; Nail, 2007; Newell et al., 2001; Tomkovick et al., 2001). However, prior research on whether Super Bowl ads have a positive impact on stock prices has not provided consistent results. Thus, more attention should be paid to the marketing productivity and measures of return, including customer equity (e.g., Rust et al., 2004). Drawing on the brand value chain (Keller and Lehmann, 2003), we hypothesize that customer equity mediates the relationship between Super Bowl ads and firm value. Using event study methodology, we analyze a sample of 62 ads for which data is available on both measures that represent customer equity and stock price from the Super Bowls from 2008 to 2012. We find that Super Bowl ads can be worth the large investment, but only if they enhance consumers' brand favorability ratings. The reverse also holds in that a negative impact on stock return is expected when a Super Bowl ad reduces brand favorability.

본 연구에서는 먼저 이론상으로 환율을 고려하고 나면 동일하여야 하는 DR과 원주의 균형가격이 이루어지고 있는지 분석하였다. 다음으로는 여전히 발생하고 있는 가격괴리현상에 대하여 어떠한 요인이 이러한 괴리현상을 설명할 수 있는지를 찾아보았다. 마지막으로는 점진적인 자본시장 자유화 진행에 따라서 원주와 DR과의 가격괴리 현상에 어떠한 변화가 발생했는지를 알아보았다. 분석결과 먼저 DR과 원주 가격 사이에 차이가 존재하며, 특히 DR가격이 환율을 고려한 내재가격에 비하여 할증되어 거래된다는 것을 발견하였다. 또한 이러한 가격괴리현상은 시간이 경과함에 따라 변하는 것으로 나타났다. DR과 원주의 가격에 차이를 발생시키는 요인에 대해서 살펴본 결과, 원․달러 환율의 변화가 DR할증에 통계적으로 유의한 양(+)의 영향을, KOSPI지수 수익률과 MSCI지수 수익률은 DR할증에 각각 음(-)과 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 기업규모가 DR할증에 미치는 영향력은 ADR과 GDR에서 각각 음(-)과 양(+)으로 서로 상반된 유의한 결과가 도출되었으며 ADR과 GDR을 모두 합한 분석에서는 그 효과가 서로 상쇄되어 기업규모가 DR할증에 아무런 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 배당의 경우는 DR할증에 양(+)의 영향을, DR의 변동성은 DR 할증에 음(-)의 영향을 그리고 ADR시장에 국한해서는 거래량이 많을수록 DR할증에 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 정보비대칭에 기인한 것인지를 파악하기 위하여 활용된 외국인 보유지분율만이 유일하게 통계상 비유의하게 나타났다. 본 연구를 통하여 동일 재화에 대한 두 자산 DR과 원주의 가격이 다름을 확인하였으며, 그러한 이유로 시장별 투자자심리와 거래장소에 따른 차이, 유동성과 거래비용 등에 따른 차이, 서로 상이한 위험에 대한 인식과 태도, 그리고 정보비대칭에 기인한 가격차이가 나타났음을 확인하였으며, 또한 그 차이는 시간이 경과함에 따라 변한다는 것을 발견하였다.

The objective of this was to improve a transportation cost relation between Central Distribution Centers(CDCs) and Regional Distribution Centers(RDCs), to control inventory cost concerning safety stock for each service level, by reviewing distribution ste

The result of variance decomposition through yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA, S&P 500 index, stock price of KEPCO has 76.12% of impulse of KEPCO stock price at short-term horizon, but they have 51.40% at long-term horizon. After one year, they occupy 13.65%, and 33.25%. So their effects are increased. By the way, S&P 500 index and yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA have relatively more effect for forecast of stock price oi KEPCO at short-term & long-term. The yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA more than S&P 500 index have more effect for stock price of KEPCO. It is why. That foreign investors through fall of stock price of USA invest for emerging market is less than movement for emerging market of hedge funds through effect of fall of yield of Treasury of 30 year maturity of USA, according to relative effects for stock price of Korea companies. The result of variance decomposition through won/dollar foreign exchange rate, yield of corporate bond of 3 year maturity, Korea Stock Price index(KOSPI), stock price of KEPCO has 81.33% of impulse of KEPCO stock price at short-term horizon, but they have 41.73% at long-term horizon. After one year, they occupy 23.57% and 34.70%. So their effects are increased. By the way, KOSPI and won/dollar foreign exchange rate have relatively more effect for forecast of stock price of KEPCO at short-term & long-term. The won/dollar foreign exchange rate more than KOSPI have more effect for stock price of KEPCO. It is why. The recovery of economic condition through improvement of company revenue causes of rising of KOSPI. But, if persistence of low interest rate continues, fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate will be more aggravated. And it will give positive effect for stock price of KEPCO. This gives more positive effect at two main reason. Firstly, through fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate and rising of credit rating of Korea will be followed. Therefore, foreign investors will invest more funds to Korea. Secondly, inflow of foreign investment funds through profit of won/dollar foreign exchange rate and stock investment will be occurred. If appreciation of won against dollar is forecasted, foreign investors will buy won. Through this won, investors will do investment. Won/dollar foreign exchange rate is affected through external factors of yen/dollar foreign exchange rate, etc. Therefore, the exclusion of instable factors for foreign investors through rising of credit rating of Korea is necessary things.

This study investigates the problem of outlier detection based on discrete wavelet transform in the context of time series data where the identification and treatment of outliers constitute an important component. An outlier is defined as a data point that deviates so much from the rest of observations within a data sample. In this work we focus on the application of the traditional method suggested by Tukey (1977) for detecting outliers in the closed price series of the Saudi Arabia stock market (Tadawul) between Oct. 2011 and Dec. 2019. The method is applied to the details obtained from the MODWT (Maximal-Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform) of the original series. The result show that the suggested methodology was successful in detecting all of the outliers in the series. The findings of this study suggest that we can model and forecast the volatility of returns from the reconstructed series without outliers using GARCH models. The estimated GARCH volatility model was compared to other asymmetric GARCH models using standard forecast error metrics. It is found that the performance of the standard GARCH model were as good as that of the gjrGARCH model over the out-of-sample forecasts for returns among other GARCH specifications.

This study is concerned with the relationship between firm’s ownership structure and the co-movement of the stock return with the market return. Four different types of firm ownership, including managerial ownership, state ownership, foreign ownership, and concentrated ownership, are among the main features of the company’s governance mechanism and have been separately documemented in the previous research to understand their impact on stock price synchronicity. We constructed the regression model, using stock price synchronicity as the dependent variable and the above four components of ownership structure as explanantory variables. The pooled OLS, the fixed effects model, and the random effects are employed to investigate the outcome of the study. Data used in the reserch are of public firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) during the five-year period term from 2015 to 2019. The data sample contains 235 companies from 10 industries with 1135 observations. The results revealed by the fixed effects model, the large ownership and the managerial ownership are found to have adverse effect on the stock price synchronicity, whereas the foreign ownership model is revealed to have positive influence on the stock return co-movement. The effect of the state ownership on the stock price synchronicity is not confirmed.

This paper examines the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the Philippine stock exchange, peso-dollar rate and retail price of diesel using robust least squares regression and vector autoregression (VAR). The robust least squares regression using MM-estimation method concluded that COVID-19 daily infection has negative and statistically significant effect on the Philippine stock exchange index, pesodollar exchange rate and retail pump price of diesel. This is consistent with the results of correlation diagnostics. As for the VAR model, the lag values of the independent variable disclose significance in explaining the Philippine stock exchange index, peso-dollar exchange rate and retail pump price of diesel. Moreover, in the short run, the impulse response function confirmed relative effect of COVID-19 daily infections and the variance decomposition divulge that COVID-19 daily infections have accounted for only minor portion in explaining fluctuations of the Philippine stock exchange index, peso-dollar exchange and retail pump price of diesel. In the long term, the influence levels off. The Granger causality test suggests that COVID-19 daily infections cause changes in the Philippine stock exchange index and peso-dollar exchange rate in the short run. However, COVID-19 infection has no causal link with retail pump price of diesel.

This study aims to investigate the effect of oil price and exchange rate on the two Vietnamese stock market indices: VN index and HXN index. This study uses the daily data from August 1st 2000 to October 25th 2019 of the two Vietnamese stock indices: VN index and HNX index, the two oil price indices: BRENT and WTI, and the two exchange rates: US dollar to Vietnamese dong and Euro to Vietnamese dong. Due to the presence of heteroskedasticity in our data, we use GARCH (1,1) regression model to perform our analysis. Our findings show that the oil price has a significant positive effect on the two Vietnamese stock market indices. In terms of the stock index volatility, both the VN index and HNX index volatilities are negatively impacted by the return of oil price. While the conclusion about the impact of oil price remained consistent through all three robustness tests, the effect of exchange rate on Vietnamese stock market indices is not consistent. We find thatchanges of the USD/VND exchange rate significantly impact the return and volatility of HNX index only in GARCH (1,1) setting. Our analysis also survives a number of robustness tests.

The study investigates the effect of the widened daily stock price limits on the usefulness of accounting information in Korea: 1) whether investors place a higher importance on audit quality, an indicator of the reliability of accounting information, and 2) whether there are differences in the relationships between audit quality and stock-price earning-rates two years before and after June 15, 2016. This study employs samples of two years (2013 to 2015) before the widening and two years after the widening (2016 to 2017). The samples are limited to the companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange, accounting settled in December, collected from Fn-Guide and TS-2000 of the Korea Listed Companies Association. The results show that the positive association between audit quality and stock return was increased during the later period, compared to the preceding period. This tendency was more evident in companies with higher debt ratios and companies with lower levels of income smoothing, which is considered to have higher risks. The findings suggest that it is the first study evaluating the effect of widening daily stock price limits, made on June 15, 2015, on the usefulness of audit quality information by examining the relevance between audit quality and stock return.

Purpose: This research aims to investigate the impact of corporate integrity on stock price crash risk. Research design, data, and methodology: Taking 1419 firms listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China as a sample, this paper empirically analyzed the relationship between corporate integrity and stock price crash risk. The main integrity data was hand-collected from Shenzhen Stock Exchange Website. Other financial data was collected from CSMAR Database. Results: Findings show that corporate integrity can significantly decrease stock price crash risk. After changing the selection of samples, model estimation methods and the proxy variable of stock price crash risk, the conclusion is still valid. Further research shows that the relationship between corporate integrity and stock price crash risk is only found in firms with weak internal control and firms in poor legal system areas. Conclusions: Results of the study suggest that corporate integrity has a significant influence on behaviors of managers. Business ethics reduces the likelihood of managers to overstate financial performance and hide bad news, which leads to the low likelihood of future stock price crashes. Meanwhile, corporate integrity can supplement internal control and legal system in decreasing stock price crash risks.

The paper aims to measure stock price volatility on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HSX). We apply symmetric models (GARCH, GARCH-M) and asymmetry (EGARCH and TGARCH) to measure stock price volatility on HSX. We used time series data including the daily closed price of VN-Index during 1/03/2001–1/03/2019 with 4375 observations. The results show that GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models are the most suitable models to measure both symmetry and asymmetry volatility level of VN-Index. The study also provides evidence for the existence of asymmetric effects (leverage) through the parameters of TGARCH model (1,1), showing that positive shocks have a significant effect on the conditional variance (volatility). This result implies that the volatility of stock returns has a big impact on future market movements under the impact of shocks, while asymmetric volatility increase market risk, thus increase the attractiveness of the stock market. The research results are useful reference information to help investors in forecasting the expected profit rate of the HSX, and also the risks along with market fluctuations in order to take appropriate adjust to the portfolios. From this study’s results, we can see risk prediction models such as GARCH can be better used in risk forecasting especially.

The paper aims to test long-term and short-term causality from four exchange rates, the Korean won/$US, the Korean won/Euro, the Korean won/Japanese yen, and the Korean won/Chinese yuan, to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index in the presence of several macroeconomic variables using monthly data from January 1986 to June 2018. The results of Johansen cointegration tests show that there exists at least one cointegrating equation, which indicates that long-run causality from an exchange rate to the Korean stock market will exist. The results of vector error correction estimates show that: for long-term causality, the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, that is, long-term causality from exchange rates to the Korean stock market is observed. For short-term causality, the coefficient of the Japanese yen exchange rate is significant with a positive sign, that is, short-term causality from the Japanese yen exchange rate to the Korean stock market is observed. The coefficient of the financial crises i.e. 1997-1999 Asian financial crisis and 2007- 2008 global financial crisis on the endogenous variables in the model and the Korean economy is significant. The result indicates that the financial crises have considerably affected the Korean economy, especially a negative effect on money supply.

Purpose – This study examines the effect of control-ownership wedge on stock crash risk. In Korea, controlling shareholders have exclusive control rights compared to their cash flow rights. With increasing disparity, controlling shareholders abuse their power and extract private benefits at the expense of the minority shareholders. Managers who are controlling shareholders of the companies tend not to disclose critical information that would prevent them from pursuing private interests. They accumulate negative information in the firm. When the accumulated bad news crosses a tipping point, it will be suddenly released to the market at once, resulting in an abrupt decline in stock prices. We predict that stock price crash likelihood due to information opaqueness increases as the wedge increases. Research design, data, and methodology – 831 KOSPI-listed firm-year observations are from KisValue database from 2005 to 2011. Control–ownership wedge is measured as the ratio (UCO −UCF)/UCO where UCF(UCO) is the ultimate cash-fl ow(control) rights of the largest controlling shareholder. Dependent variable CRASH is a dummy variable that equals one if the firm has at least 1 crash week during a year, and zero otherwise. Logistic regression is used to examine the relationship between control–ownership wedge and stock price crash risk. Results – Using a sample of KOSPI-listed firms in KisValue database for the period 2005–2011, we find that stock price crash risk increases as the disparity increases. Specifically, we find that the coefficient of WEDGE is significantly positive, supporting our prediction. The result implies that as controlling shareholders’ ownership increases, controlling shareholders tend to withhold bad news. Conclusions – Our results show that agency problems arising from the divergence between control rights and cash flow rights increase the opaqueness of accounting information. Eventually, the accumulated bad news is released all at once, leading to stock price crashes. It could be seen that companies with high control-ownership wedge are likely to experience future stock price crashes. Our study is related to a broader literature that examined the effect of the control-ownership wedge on stock markets. Our findings suggest that the disparity is a meaningful predictor for future stock price crash risk. The results are expected to provide useful implications for firms, regulators, and investors.

It is undisputable that crude oil and its price fluctuations are major components that affect most of the countries’ economies. Recent studies have demonstrated that beside the impact that crude oil price fluctuations have on common macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates, exchange rates, unemployment rate, etc., it also has a strong influence on stock markets and their performance. This relationship has been examined in a number of settings, but it is yet to be unraveled in the Omani context. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to examine the possible effect of the oil price fluctuations on stock price movements. The study applies Toda and Yamamoto’s (1995) Granger non-causality test on the daily Oman stock index (Muscat Securities Market Index) and oil prices between the period of 2 January 2003 and 13 March 2016. The results indicated that the oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on stock index movements. However, the stock price movements do not have a significant impact on oil prices. These findings have significant implications not only for the Omani economy but also for the economy of similar countries, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The latter should carefully consider their policies and strategies regarding crude oil production and the generated income allocation as it might potentially affect the financial markets performance in these countries.