본 연구에서는 강풍 위험 모델과 강풍 취약도 모델을 개발하여 옥외 광고물의 강풍 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하였다. 강풍 위험 모델과 강풍 취약도 모델 모두 확률론적 접근법인 몬테카를로 모사 모형을 적용하여 개발되었으며, 강풍 위험도 모델은 평가된 강풍 위험과 강풍 취약도의 수학적 계산을 통해서 평가되었다. 강풍 위험은 국내 내륙과 해안지역의 대도시인 서울과 부산 지역에 대하여 평가되었으며, 강풍 취약도 모델은 현장 조사와 문헌 조사를 통하여 파악된 10종의 벽면 이용형, 8종의 돌출형 옥외 광고물을 대상으로 개발되었다. 강풍 위험도에 영향을 미치는 요인을 파악하기 위하여 지표조도구분, 옥외 광고물의 형태, 설치 지역, 설치 높이 등에 따른 강풍 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 강풍 위험도 평가 방법은 강풍으로 인한 옥외 광고물의 손실 추정 및 피해 저감 대책 수립을 위하여 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Suhyup Bank became to be subject to regulation of capital ratio by BaselⅢ which was introduced in order to enhance stability of the financial institution. Accordingly, Suhyup Bank will require recapitalization. It is important to estimate the risk-weighted assets in calculating of Suhyup Bank’s recapitalization scale. Therefor, this study aimed to present a scientific model as estimated the risk-weighted assets. Risk-weighted assets are calculated by applying different risk weights for loans, may have a certain relationship with the loans. Results show that the risk-weighted assets is affected by the previous year’s riskweighted assets and influenced the increase in loans during the year. Since the required basic capital adequacy ratio was specified, the risk-weighted assets should be predicted reasonably. Accordingly, on this study it was tried to derive the accounting equation to predict the risk-weighted assets based on management data of a bank since introduction of BaselⅢ. As the risk-weighted assets were weighted differently according to the type of loans, if the accounting equation is derived by using the type of loans, then it would be helpful for the risk management of banks in the long-term. According to this, the increase of loan would be predicted on the basis of past management performance of Suhyup Bank, and for this reason, the future risk-weighted assets of Suhyup Bank were predicted. The result of this study was showed that 98.3% of risk-weighted assets of the previous year, 62.4% of the secured loan changes and 95.1% of the credit loan changes affected risk-weighted assets.

침몰선박은 침몰 당시뿐만 아니라 오랜 시간이 경과된 후에도 선체 내에 잔존하고 있는 연료유 등 유해물질의 지속적 혹은 일시적 유출로 2차 해양오염사고를 발생시킬 수 있다. 정부에서는 1999년부터 침몰선박에 대한 관리업무를 수행하고, 침몰선박의 잠재적 위해도를 정량적으로 평가할 수 있는 위해도 평가표를 개발하여 운영함으로써 침몰선박에 대한 국가적 관리체계를 구축하고 있다. 그러나 현재의 침몰선박의 위해도 평가는 침몰선박에 잔존하고 있는 연료유 등의 양에 의해 평가점수가 판이하게 달라짐에도 불구하고, 침몰선박 현황보고자료 중 상당수가 연료유 잔존량 항목이 누락되고 있는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 선박 연료유 잔존량에 대한 추정모델을 개발하여, 현행 침몰선박 위해도 평가에 적용함으로써 보다 정확한 평가를 수행할 수 있는 방안을 마련하였다.

본 연구에서는 강풍 위험과 강풍 취약도의 합성곱을 통하여 강풍 위험도를 평가할 수 있는 확률적 체계를 수립하였으며, 수치적으로 개발한 모형으로 아파트 창호 시스템의 강풍 위험도를 평가하였다. 강풍 위험 모형은 1951년부터 2013년까지에 한반도에 영향을 준 태풍의 기후학적 자료를 몬테카를로 모사기법에 적용하여 개발되었다. 또한 몬테카를로 모사기법으로 창호 시스템의 저항성능과 풍하중의 확률 분포를 비교하여 강풍에 대한 4가지 피해단계의 구조적 파괴확률을 평가할 수 있는 취약도 모형이 개발되었다. 개발된 몬테카를로 모사기법으로 평가한 강풍 위험과 강풍 취약도는 각각 웨이블 분포와 로그정규분포로 곡선맞춤 되었으며, 합성곱을 통한 강풍 위험도 평가에 사용되었다. 본 연구에서 개발한 확률적 위험도 평가체계를 통하여 평가지역, 지표조도, 지형, 지붕 경사각, 건물 높이 등이 아파트 창호 시스템의 강풍 위험도에 미치는 영향성을 정량적으로 평가할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구를 통하여 개발된 강풍 위험도 평가 모델은 평가지역의 존재하는 건축물에 대한 데이터베이스와 결합하여 손실추정 및 피해 저감대책 수립 등의 분야에서 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

The major issue in aircraft industry is aviation safety management because of demand improvement and advancement of the aircraft. This study is to assess the risks for aviation safety management using IRPN( importance-risk priority number) which is added to importance coefficient from RPN(risk priority number). In FMEA, RPN requires the factors like the occurrence (O), Severity (S), and Detection (D) of each failure mode to be precisely evaluated. Therefore, the severity and detection is derived by the value from FMEA of expert group based on the Fuzzy theory. The occurrence is calculated from the accident statistics of IATA(international air transport association) database. Particularly, this study introduces importance coefficient to prevent from RPN distortions. It is also derived from FMEA based on the Fuzzy theory. Finally, the critical ranking of risk factors according to I-RPN is compared with the existing research.

There have been various studies on measurements of flood risk and forecasting models. For river and dam region, PDF and FVI has been proposed for measurement of flood risk and regression models have been applied for forecasting model. For Bo region unlikely river or dam region, flood risk would unexpectedly increase due to outgoing water to keep water amount under the designated risk level even the drain system could hardly manage the water amount. GFI and general linear model was proposed for flood risk measurement and forecasting model. In this paper, FVI with the consideration of duration on GFI was proposed for flood risk measurement at Bo region. General linear model was applied to the empirical data from Bo region of Nadong river to derive the forecasting model of FVI at three different values of Base High Level, 2m, 2.5m and 3m. The significant predictor variables on the target variable, FVI were as follows: ground water level based on sea level with negative effect, difference between ground altitude of ground water and river level with negative effect, and difference between ground water level and river level after Bo water being filled with positive sign for quantitative variables. And for qualitative variable, effective soil depth and ground soil type were significant for FVI.

The occupational health and safety accidents were continuously increased during handling, usage and manufacturing the chemical materials according to increase of small and medium sized enterprises in domestic industries. These accidents mainly resulted from insufficient occupational health and safety management and deteriorative facilities and focused on corresponding operation to minimize the damage of accidents after occurrence. But, it was required that we grasped the occurrence causes of occupational health and safety risk in handling, usage and manufacturing the chemical materials and develop the adequate corresponding operation and system according to the possible occurrence of occupational health and safety risk. This study deals with the development of risk assessment model to derive the risk and important risk of occupational health and safety and then help to construct the self-controlled occupational health and safety system for small and medium sized enterprises handling the chemical materials.

Constructions sites are affected by Diversity workplace, complexity of construction, Change of place, Mobility of workers and so on. In a single establishment, Prime contractors and subcontractors have to conduct their work at the same time. There are a lot of unpredictable risks when the construction is running, coordination between contractors is very important to do a risk assessment under the condition. Large Construction companies were investigated by previous studies. Survey research is applied to the risk assessment. In the writing, Risk assessment of the entire lower level. Because of the low level of risk factors to find. Also, There was a limit to investigate accidents. Confirmed that Effort to derive a risk factors were desperately of the risk assessment. Results were obtained through previous studies. The PCM is several experts should be joined. Experts Site Manager, Supervisor, Safety Manager, Director Contractor, Work team leader is required to participate. Construction plans, Process Planning to the risk find beforehand. And Determines how the operations and the control. Also, Made it into the database. and PCRA can be used in the risk assessment was developed.

Constructions sites are affected by Diversity workplace, complexity of construction, Change of place, Mobility of workers and so on. In a single establishment, Prime contractors and subcontractors have to conduct their work at the same time. There are a lot of unpredictable risks when the construction is running, coordination between contractors is very important to do a risk assessment under the condition. Large Construction companies were investigated by previous studies. Survey research is applied to the risk assessment. In the writing, Risk assessment of the entire lower level. Because of the low level of risk factors to find. Also, There was a limit to investigate accidents. Confirmed that Effort to derive a risk factors were desperately of the risk assessment. Results were obtained through previous studies. The PCM is several experts should be joined. Experts Site Manager, Supervisor, Safety Manager, Director Contractor, Work team leader is required to participate. Construction plans, Process Planning to the risk find beforehand. And Determines how the operations and the control. Also, Made it into the database. and PCRA can be used in the risk assessment was developed.

During a flood season, Bo region could be easily exposed to flood due to increase of ground water level and the water drain difficulty even the water amount of Bo can be managed. GFI for the flood risk is measured by mean depth to water during a dry season and minimum depth to water and tangent degree during a flood season. In this paper, a forecasting model of the target variable, GFI and predictors as differences of height between ground water and Bo water, distances from water resource, and soil characteristics are obtained for the dry season of 2012 and the flood season of 2012 with empirical data of Gangjungbo and Hamanbo. Obtained forecasting model would be used for keep the value of GFI below the maximum allowance for no flooding during flooding seasons with controlling the values of significant predictors.

2012년 자연재해로 인한 피해액 중 90% 이상이 태풍과 강풍 등 풍해로 인한 것이었다. 계속되는 기후변화와 도시지역의 확장은 풍해를 지속적으로 증가시키고 있다. 풍해에 효율적으로 대처하기 위해서는 도시에 대한 풍해 위험을 정확하게 평가하고 위험지역에 대한 효과적인 재해경감사업을 수행해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 이와 같은 정책적 필요성을 충족시키기 위해 국내외의 자연재해 위험지표에 대한 면밀한 사례분석을 바탕으로 한국적 도시환경에 가장 적합한 풍해 위험지표를 제안한다. 제안된 풍해 위험지표는 구조적 취약성 세부지표 3개, 사회적 취약성 세부지표 5개, 대응 및 복구능력 세부지표 7개 등 총 15개의 세부지표로 구성된다. 각 세부지표는 모두 정량적인 지표로서 기 구축된 국가통계자료를 활용하여 빠르고 쉽게 계산이 가능하며, 무차원화 과정을 통해 하나의 통합적인 점수로 종합화될 수 있다. 정책 입안자들은 본 연구에서 제안한 풍해 위험지표를 활용하여 풍해로 인한 고위험 도시를 사전에 판별할 수 있으며, 이를 바탕으로 효율적인 자원분배를 통해 재해경감사업을 펼침으로써 풍해로 인한 피해를 최소화할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

구제역 바이러스는 소나 돼지 등의 우제류 가축에 경구 또는 흡입 노출 등의 다양한 노출 경로를 통해 심각한 감염성을 유발하는 생물학적 유해인자로 국내 축산업 운영에 있어 막대한 경제적 손실을 초래하는 병원균들 중 하나다. 구제역 발병에 대한 사전적 예방 관리를 도모할 수 있는 조치 방안 중 하나는 공기를 통해 전파되는 구제역 바이러스 확산에 대해 수학적 모델 적용을 통해 예측된 분석 결과에 따라 설정될 수 있다. 대기 확산 모델들은 일반적으로 구제역 바이러스의 주요 전파 경로인 경구 및 접촉 감염의 노출 시나리오를 예측할 수는 없으나, 상대적으로 예측도가 높은 대기 확산 모델의 경우 공기 전파에 대한 구제역 바이러스의 위해성 관리 방안을 결정하는 데 주요 역할을 담당할 수 있는 유용가능한 수단으로 여러 나라에서 활용되어 왔다. 구제역 바이러스 전파를 억제하기 위한 엄격한 관리 방안 중 다량의 가축 살처분 방법은 축산 농가들에게 심각한 경제적 손실을 초래하여 심각한 경우 새로운 자립의 여건마저도 상실시킬 수도 있다. 반면 낮은 수준의 대응 방안은 향후 구제역 발생에 따른 추가적 피해를 근원적으로 억제할 수 없는 역학적 한계에 봉착할 수 있다. 본 연구는 구제역 바이러스의 기본 특성 및 발생 모델 적용에 따른 공기 중 전파의 감염 위험성 평가 관련 선행 문헌들을 고찰하였다. 또한 1970년대 이후 구제역 바이러스의 공기 전파 경로를 예측하기 위해 여러 나라에서 실제 활용된 다양한 대기 확산 모델들의 적용 사례 및 장/단점을 비교 분석하였다.

The important elements and conditions to improve corporate competitiveness are customer development, new product development, sales increase, net profit increase, and other factors. Even if those competitiveness elements are well prepared, obstacles may exist. In this paper, we examined the risk, the deadliest obstacle that can affect corporate. We selected the risk factors that exist in functional categories in the system connected complicatedly and variously by organizational value chain of corporate, and examined the conceptual model of Enterprise Risk Management System based on the precedent studies.

With the trends of massiveness and complexity of construction, the main agents of construction have considered the various types of risk management strategies to minimize the loss caused by the risk factors from the nature of construction project, regional characteristics, and scale of construction. The risk management has been conducted, because the risk factors have exacerbated the condition of construction in terms of the level of productivity, quality of construction, atmosphere, and budget. Based on thε interests regarding risk factor management, the current study suggests the work breakdown structure-based process. Additionally, based on the work breakdown structure, the risk factors on constructions are identified and stratified depending on the level of salience of each risk factor. The purpose of result is to lead Korean Land Corporation understand and control the risk factors properly for the advanced construction process of Korean Land Corporation. Ultimately the current study contribute to advance of efficient risk management strategies by using ANP method, which identify and control the primary risk factos depending on the impact of the interaction and subordinate relationship between risk factors.

The objective of this study is to develop an evaluation model for the National highway risky areas. Thus, for the purposes of doing this, National highway risky area evaluated targeting to provide determination ranking and suggesting rival-superiority factors as well as under-inferiority factors in ten National highway risky areas. This study developed for modules of risky areas evaluation, using fuzzy set theory and analytic hierarchy process for evaluation model of National highway risky area in transport environment. The preceding studies assess risk analysis through analysis of causal relationships by National highway safety sector not only handles rating scale development suitable for assessment area by referring to accident frequency model but also geometric structures model. As result of this study, this model of Fuzzy Ahp Risk Analysis (FARA) apply for programmable design in real time processing through easily derive strategy for improvement activities to provide a decision-making effectively. Furthermore, this study contributes frame for improvements of National highway construction for renovation's priority strategy as well as future's policy schemes.

The psychosocial stress and musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs) have been one of major health problems for hospital workers. This study tried to understand the relationship between symptoms associated with MSDs and risk factors such as working posture, job stress, psychosocial stress and fatigue. A total number of 655 hospital workers participated in this study. Specifically, REBA was applied for evaluating working posture and a checklist prepared by KOSHA(Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency) was used for symptom survey. A questionnaire from KOSHA was also used for collecting data associated with job stress, psychosocial stress and fatigue. All these data were formulated and modeled by path analysis which was one of major statistical tools in this study. Specifically, path analysis for the data we collected came up with several major findings. As a result, as for body part(neck), (waist) and (arms) the degree of risk of work posture measured with the use of job stress(KOSS), psycho-social stress(PWI-SF) and REBA is significantly more affected by fatigue than muscular skeletal disease related consciousness symptom. However, regarding bod(wrist), the degree of risk of work posture measured with the use of job stress(KOSS) and REBA is directly affected by muscular skeletal disease related consciousness symptom. This study is meaningful in that the study clarified the causal relations of the degree of risk of work posture, degree of fatigue, and muscular skeletal disease related consciousness symptoms by each body part measured with the use of work stress(KOSS), psycho-social stress(PWI-SF) and REBA.

교통사고 위험도 지수 산정 모델의 개발은 교통사고와 사상자수의 발생률을 줄이기 위한 대책으로 도로이용자 그룹, 도로와 가로망의 구역, 인구집단 등에 대한 교통위험도를 수식 또는 모델화를 통해 사전에 적용하여 효과를 극대화하고자 한다. 국외에서는 위험도평가모형을 통해 단일로 및 교차로에 개선방안 우선순위를 선정하는 방법으로 활용하고 있으며, 국내에서도 일부 사업에 적용되어 활용하고 있는 실정이다. 하지만 모형의 독자적인 개발보다는 국외의 모형을 국내 실정에 맞도록 일부 변형하여 활용하고 있어 그 정확성에 의문이 제기되고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 춘천시의 96개의 교차로를 대상으로 교통사고 발생 현황, 기하구조, 통제방식, 교통량, 회전교통량 등을 통해 교차로 평가요소를 추출하였으며, 추출된 평가 요소들의 상관분석을 통해 최종적인 변수를 도출하였다. 최종적으로 도출된 변수를 바탕으로 신호 구분, 차로수, 교차로형태의 세변수의 선형모형 분석을 통한 분산분석 기법을 이용하여 교차로 디자인 모형을 개발하였으며, 교차로의 계층분류, 판별변수 선정을 통해 신호교차로 위험도 모형, 비신호교차로 위험도 모형을 개발하였다.

The psychosocial stress and musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs) have been one of major health problems for hospital workers. This study tried to understand the relationship between symptoms associated with MSDs and risk factors such as working posture, job stress, psychosocial stress and fatigue. A total number of 655 hospital workers participated in this study. Specifically, REBA was applied for evaluating working posture and a checklist prepared by KOSHA(Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency) was used for symptom survey. A questionnaire from KOSHA was also used for collecting data associated with job stress, psychosocial stress and fatigue. All these data were formulated and modeled by path analysis which was one of major statistical tools in this study. Specifically, path analysis for the data we collected came up with several major findings. The risk scores from working posture based on REBA had indirect effects via fatigue factor(MFS) as well as direct effects on symptoms. The factors associated with job stress (KOSS) and psychosocial stress(PWI-SF) had significant effects on symptoms. Specifically, indirect effect of job stress factors via fatigue factors(MFS) had bigger than that of direct effect of job stress on symptom.