어떤 해역의 해상교통혼잡도를 평가하는 데 있어서 단위 시간당 항행 척수인 교통량을 분석하는 것보다 어떤 시간 단면에 존재하는 단위 면적당의 밀집도 분석을 활용하는 것이 합리적일 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 해상교통안전진단 대행기관의 해상교통혼잡도 평가기법을 표준화하고, 선박톤급별 환산교통량 사용으로 인한 평가오차를 최소화하기 위하여 새로운 방안을 찾고자 한다. 이를 해결하기 위해 선박자동식별장치(Automatic Identification System, AIS)의 통항선박 데이터를 활용하여 항로구간면적 대비 식별된 개개의 통항선박이 갖고 있는 점용영역의 면적을 합산한 값과의 백분율을 해상교통혼잡도로 평가하는 방안을 제시하였다. 새로운 모형에서는 정보통신기술의 획기적인 발달로 인해 실제 데이터 사용이 가능하여 환산 데이터에 의한 오차발생을 줄일 수 있고, 항로구간별 해상교통혼잡도 평가도 가능하게 되었다.
Even though cars have a good effect on modern society, traffic accidents do not. There are traffic laws that define the regulations and aim to reduce accidents from happening; nevertheless, it is hard to determine all accident causes such as road and traffic conditions, and human related factors. If a traffic accident occurs, the traffic law classifies it as ‘Negligence of Safe Driving’ for cases that are not defined by specific regulations. Meanwhile, as Korea is already growing rapidly elderly population with more than 65 years, so are the number of traffic accidents caused by this group. Therefore, we studied predictive and comparative analysis of the number of traffic accidents caused by ‘Negligence of Safe Driving’ by dividing it into two groups : All-ages and Elderly. In this paper, we used empirical monthly data from 2007 to 2015 collected by TAAS (Traffic Accident Analysis System), identified the most suitable ARIMA forecasting model by using the four steps of the Box-Jenkins method : Identification, Estimation, Diagnostics, Forecasting. The results of this study indicate that ARIMA (1, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable forecasting model in the group of All-ages; and ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 is the most suitable in the group of Elderly. Then, with this fitted model, we forecasted the number of traffic accidents for 2 years of both groups. There is no large fluctuation in the group of All-ages, but the group of Elderly shows a gradual increase trend. Finally, we compared two groups in terms of the forecast, suggested a countermeasure plan to reduce traffic accidents for both groups
인천대교는 인천국제공항과 송도국제도시를 연결하는 길이 13.38 km, 경간 800 m의 대형 교량으로 시간당 73.8(vessel/hour)척의 선박이 통항하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 인천대교 건설 시 설계되었던 인천대교 충돌방지공의 안전기준을 바탕으로 인천대교를 통항하는 선박의 중량에 따른 안전한 통항 속력을 제시하고자 한다. 연구방법은 AASHTO LRFD에서 제시한 선박 충돌에너지와, 선박 충돌 속도, 수리동적질량계수를 고려하여 통항 선박의 안전 속력을 제시하고자 한다. 인천대교의 충돌방지공은 10만DWT급 선박이 10노트로 통항 할 수 있도록 설계되었다. 본 연구에서는 대상선박(30만DWT급)의 선속조건 및 화물 상태의 비교 분석을 통하여 각각의 충돌에너지에 따른 제한 속력을 산정하는 방식으로 통항 선박의 안전 속력을 제시하였다. 또한 해당 수역의 조위에 따른 통항 선박의 안전 속력을 추가적으로 분석하였다. 대상선박(30만DWT급)을 통한 연구 결과 최대 15만DWT급 선박이 평균조위 이상의 수심에서 최대 7노트 속력으로 운항이 가능한 것으로 나타났으며, 경하상태(Ballast condition)에서는 최대 8노트의 속력으로 인천대교를 통항할 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다.
PURPOSES : Low visibility caused by dark surroundings at nighttime affects the likelihood of accidents, and various efforts, such as installing road safety facilities, have been made to reduce accidents at night. Despite these efforts, the nighttime severity index (SI) in Korea was higher than the daytime SI during 2011-2014. This study determined the factors affecting daytime and nighttime accident severity through a discriminant analysis. METHODS: Discriminant analysis. RESULTS: First, drowsiness, lack of attention, and lighting facilities affected both daytime and nighttime accident severity. Accidents were found to be caused by a low ability to recognize the driving conditions and a low obstacle avoidance capability. Second, road conditions and speeding affected only the daytime accident severity. Third, failure to maintain a safe distance significantly affected daytime accident severity and nonsignificantly affected nighttime accident severity. The majority of such accidents were caused by rear-end collisions of vehicles driving in the same direction; given the low relative speed difference in such cases, the shock imparted by the accidents was minimal. CONCLUSIONS: Accidents caused by a failure to maintain a safe distance has lower severity than do accidents caused by other factors.
PURPOSES: This study analyzed the lane-by-lane traffic flow characteristics in Korea by using real-world data, including congestion levels, for 2-, 3-, and 4-lane freeways. METHODS : On the basis of a literature review, lane flow and speed characteristics were analyzed using flow measurements and speed ratios. In addition, the effect of congestion levels on traffic flow were visualized using rescaled cumulative plots. RESULTS: Driver behavior varied depending on the congestion level. During free-flow conditions, the lane-use ratio of individual lanes varied largely, whereas during congestion, the ratio was nearly the same for all lanes (i.e., equilibrium). During maximum-flow and congestion conditions, the median lane was used more than the shoulder lane, whereas during all other conditions, the shoulder lane had a higher lane-use ratio. In 3- or 4-lane freeways, the lane-use ratio of the median lane always exceeded 1 and was the highest during free-flow conditions. CONCLUSIONS : The results of the present analysis can be used as an index to predict congestion before a lane is overcapacitated. Moreover, the results can be applied in variable lane guidance systems, such as car navigation systems and variable message displays, to control traffic flow.
PURPOSES : This study estimated the load effect of a single heavy truck to develop a live load model for the design and assessment of bridges located on an expressway with a limited truck entry weight. METHODS: The statistical estimation methods for the live load effect acting on a bridge by a heavy vehicle are reviewed, and applications using the actual measurement data for trucks traveling on an expressway are presented. The weight estimation of a single vehicle and its effect on a bridge are fundamental elements in the construction of a live load model. Two statistical estimation methods for the application of extrapolation in a probabilistic study and an additional estimation method that adopts the extreme value theory are reviewed. RESULTS : The proposed methods are applied to the traffic data measured on an expressway. All of the estimation methods yield similar results using the data measured when the weight limit has been relatively well observed because of the rigid enforcement of the weight regulation. On the other hand, when the estimations are made using overweight traffic data, the resulting values differ with the estimation method. CONCLUSIONS: The estimation methods based on the extreme distribution theory and the modified procedure presented in this paper can yield reasonable values for the maximum weight of a single truck, which can be applied in both the design and evaluation of a bridge on an expressway.
PURPOSES: The objective of this study is to analyze factors affecting traffic accident severity for determining countermeasures on freeway climbing lanes.
METHODS : In this study, an ordered probit model, which is a widely used discrete choice model for categorizing crash severity, was employed.
RESULTS: Results suggest that factors affecting traffic accident severity on climbing lanes include speed, drowsy driving, grade of uphill 3%, gender (male offender and male victim), and cloud weather.
CONCLUSIONS : Several countermeasures are proposed for improving traffic safety on freeway climbing lanes based on the analysis of crash severity. More extensive analysis with a larger data set and various modeling techniques are required for generalizing the results.
PURPOSES: This study deals with the traffic accidents classified by the traffic analysis zone. The purpose is to develop the accident density models by using zonal traffic and socioeconomic data.
METHODS : The traffic accident density models are developed through multiple linear regression analysis. In this study, three multiple linear models were developed. The dependent variable was traffic accident density, which is a measure of the relative distribution of traffic accidents. The independent variables were various traffic and socioeconomic variables.
CONCLUSIONS : Three traffic accident density models were developed, and all models were statistically significant. Road length, trip production volume, intersections, van ratio, and number of vehicles per person in the transportation-based model were analyzed to be positive to the accident. Residential and commercial area ratio and transportation vulnerability ratio obtained using the socioeconomic-based model were found to affect the accident. The major arterial road ratio, trip production volume, intersection, van ratio, commercial ratio, and number of companies in the integrated model were also found to be related to the accident.
PURPOSES : This study evaluated the feasibility of implementing protected-permissive left-turn (PPLT) signals at three-leg signalized intersections.
METHODS: A three-leg signalized intersection with permissive left-turn was first selected. A VISSIM simulation model was constructed using data collected from the test site. The VISSIM network was calibrated by adjusting related parameter values in order to minimize the difference between the simulated and surveyed critical gap. The calibrated network was validated by the number of waiting left-turning vehicles per cycle. Finally, the mobility and safety measures were extracted from simulation runs in which permissive, protected left turns as well as PPLTs were realized based on diverse traffic volume scenarios.
RESULTS : The mobility-related measures of effectiveness (MOEs) of the case with PPLT outperformed the other two left-turn treatment scenarios. In particular, the average waiting time per cycle for the left-turn vehicles in the case with PPLT was reduced by 30 s. The safetyrelated MOEs of the case with PPLT were somewhat higher than those in the case with protected left-turns and much higher than those in the case with permissive left-turns.
CONCLUSIONS : Based on the mobility- and safety-related MOEs generated from the VISSIM simulation runs, the use of PPLT seems to be feasible at three-leg signalized intersections where the left-turn is permissive and a pedestrian signal exists at the conflicting approach. However, in order to use the PPLT in earnest, it is necessary to revise the road traffic act, traffic signs, and related manuals.
PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to verify traffic accident injury severity factors for elderly drivers and the relative relationship of these factors.
METHODS: To verify the complicated relationship among traffic accident injury severity factors, this study employed a structural equation model (SEM). To develop the SEM structure, only the severity of human injuries was considered; moreover, the observed variables were selected through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The number of fatalities, serious injuries, moderate injuries, and minor injuries were selected for observed variables of severity. For latent variables, the accident situation, environment, and vehicle and driver factors were respectively defined. Seven observed variables were selected among the latent variables.
RESULTS: This study showed that the vehicle and driver factor was the most influential factor for accident severity among the latent factors. For the observed variable, the type of vehicle, type of accident, and status of day or night for each latent variable were the most relative observed variables for the accident severity factor. To verify the validity of the SEM, several model fitting methods, including , GFI, AGFI, CFI, and others, were applied, and the model produced meaningful results.
CONCLUSIONS: Based on an analysis of results of traffic accident injury severity for elderly drivers, the vehicle and driver factor was the most influential one for injury severity. Therefore, education tailored to elderly drivers is needed to improve driving behavior of elderly driver.