PURPOSES : This study was conducted to develop a traffic accident prediction model using traffic accident data and management and service evaluation data on bus companies in Busan, and to determine the possibility of establishing customized traffic accident prevention measures for each company. METHODS: First, we collected basic data on the characteristics of urban bus traffic accidents and conducted basic statistical analysis. Then, we developed traffic accident prediction models using Poisson regression and negative binomial regression to examine the characteristics of major items of management and service evaluation affecting traffic accidents. RESULTS : The Poisson regression model showed overdispersion; hence, the negative binomial regression model was selected. The results of the traffic accident prediction model developed using negative binomial regression are acceptable at 95% confidence level (a = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS : The traffic accident prediction model indicates that the management of the traffic record system and internal and external management items in service evaluation have a significant effect on the reduction of traffic accidents. In particular, because human factors are the main cause of traffic accidents, bus traffic accidents are expected to greatly decrease if drivers' dangerous driving behaviors are effectively controlled by bus companies.

PURPOSES :This study was initiated to estimate the utilities of usage attributes of BRT and Bimodal Trams using a conjoint analysis method in order to identify the important features pertaining to the use of BRT and Bimodal Trams.METHODS :For this purpose, important attributes and those level in the use of BRT and Bimodal Trams in the city of Sejong were identified. Next, a profile questionnaire pertaining to BRT and Bimodal Trams was designed for the conjoint analysis, and a survey was conducted in the city of Sejong. Using SPSS software, conjoint analysis was performed to identify the important attributes vis｀-a-vis the use of BRT and Bimodal Trams in the city of Sejong. Finally, the utilities for individual attributes were calculated based on the models estimated by the conjoint analysis.RESULTS :The results of the conjoint analysis were used to identify the important attributes. With regard to the usage of BRT, users indicated that fare was the most important attribute with the highest utility. In the case of Bimodal Trams, the users indicated that the number of seats and internal environment were the most important attributes with the highest utilities.CONCLUSIONS :Based on the results of the conjoint analysis, the important attributes pertaining to the use of BRT and Bimodal Trams in the city of Sejong were identified. Our study indicates that BRT in the city of Sejong needs to be upgraded to improve the utilities of the important attributes. Currently, Bimodal Trams has not been introduced completely in the city of Sejong. However, in the future, when the introduction of Bimodal Trams is completed, the important attributes should be emphasized in order to improve the quality of its service.

PURPOSES: The density in uninterrupted traffic flow facilities plays an important role in representing the current status of traffic flow. For example, the density is used for the primary measures of effectiveness in the capacity analysis for freeway facilities. Therefore, the estimation of density has been a long and tough task for traffic engineers for a long time. This study was initiated to evaluate the performance of density values that were estimated using VDS data and two traditional methods, including a method using traffic flow theory and another method using occupancy by comparing the density values estimated using vehicular trajectory data generated from a radar detector. METHODS: In this study, a radar detector which can generate very accurate vehicular trajectory within the range of 250 m on the Joongbu expressway near to Dongseoul tollgate, where two VDS were already installed. The first task was to estimate densities using different data and methods. Thus, the density values were estimated using two traditional methods and the VDS data on the Joongbu expressway. The density values were compared with those estimated using the vehicular trajectory data in order to evaluate the quality of density estimation. Then, the relationship between the space mean speed and density were drawn using two sets of densities and speeds based on the VDS data and one set of those using the radar detector data. CONCLUSIONS: As a result, the three sets of density showed minor differences when the density values were under 20 vehicles per km per lane. However, as the density values become greater than 20 vehicles per km per lane, the three methods showed a significant difference among on another. The density using the vehicular trajectory data showed the lowest values in general. Based on the in-depth study, it was found out that the space mean speed plays a critical role in the calculation of density. The speed estimated from the VDS data was higher than that from the radar detector. In order to validate the difference in the speed data, the traffic flow models using the relationships between the space mean speed and the density were carefully examined in this study. Conclusively, the traffic flow models generated using the radar data seems to be more realistic.

PURPOSES: This study was initiated to analyze the characteristics of bus traffic accidents, by bus types, using the decision tree in order to establish customized safety alternatives by bus types, including the intra-city bus, rural area bus, and inter-city bus. METHODS: In this study, the major elements involved in bus traffic accidents were identified using decision trees and CHAID algorithm. The decision tree was used to identify the characteristics of major elements influencing bus traffic accidents. In addition, the CHAID algorithm was applied to branch the decision trees. RESULTS : The number of casualties and severe injuries are high in bus accidents involving pedestrians, bicycles, motorcycles, etc. In the case of light injury caused by bus accidents, different results are found. In the case of intra-city bus accidents, the probability of light injury is of 77.2% when boarding a non-owned car and breaching of duty to drive safely are involved. In the case of rural area bus accidents, the elements showing the highest probability of light injury are boarding an owned car, vehicle-to-vehicle accidents, and breaching of duty to drive safely. In the case of intra-city bus accidents, boarding owned car, streets, and vehicle-to-vehicle accidents work as the critical elements. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the bus accident data were categorized by bus types, and then the influential elements were identified using decision trees. As a result, the characteristics of bus accidents were found to be different depending on bus types. The findings in this study are expected to be utilized in establishing effective alternatives to reduce bus accidents.

PURPOSES: This study was initiated to estimate the benefits from the campaign to prevent drowsy driving crashes on expressways. The study was conducted by the Korea Expressway Corporation using a contingent valuation method. METHODS : First, a questionnaire was designed for a preliminary survey. From the survey’s results, the initial willingness to pay for the campaign was determined by averaging different amounts of payments chosen under virtual scenarios in the survey. The willingness to pay data was used to find a first bid price for the open-ended method used for the second survey. After that, a primary questionnaire was designed and conducted using a single dichotomous choice question (SDBCQ). Drivers at expressway resting areas were asked their willingness to pay for the campaign. Based on statistical analysis using data collected from the second survey, the mean willingness to pay was estimated using a probability utility function. Finally, the benefit from the campaign was calculated using the estimated willingness to pay and accident data on expressways. CONCLUSIONS : Based on the result from the contingent valuation method, the benefit from the campaign to prevent drowsy driving crashes was estimated to be 170.6 won per expressway trip. The benefit is to be paid as an additional toll. In addition, the traffic crash cost estimate is about 2,209,680,000 won less than the cost during the same period in 2014.

PURPOSES : The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the QUEENSOD method and the gravity model in estimating Origin-Destination (O/D) tables for a large-sized microscopic traffic simulation network. METHODS : In this study, an expressway network was simulated using the microscopic traffic simulation model, VISSIM. The gravity model and QUEENSOD method were used to estimate the O/D pairs between internal and between external zones. RESULTS: After obtaining estimations of the O/D table by using both the gravity model and the QUEENSOD method, the value of the root mean square error (RMSE) for O/D pairs between internal zones were compared. For the gravity model and the QUEENSOD method, the RMSE obtained were 386.0 and 241.2, respectively. The O/D tables estimated using both methods were then entered into the VISSIM networks and calibrated with measured travel time. The resulting estimated travel times were then compared. For the gravity model and the QUEENSOD method, the estimated travel times showed 1.16% and 0.45% deviation from the surveyed travel time, respectively. CONCLUSIONS : In building a large-sized microscopic traffic simulation network, an O/D matrix is essential in order to produce reliable analysis results. When link counts from diverse ITS facilities are available, the QUEENSOD method outperforms the gravity model.

PURPOSES: This study was initiated to estimate expressway traffic congestion costs by using Vehicle Detection System (VDS) data. METHODS : The overall methodology for estimating expressway traffic congestion costs is based on the methodology used in a study conducted by a study team from the Korea Transport Institute (KOTI). However, this study uses VDS data, including conzone speeds and volumes, instead of the volume delay function for estimating travel times. RESULTS : The expressway traffic congestion costs estimated in this study are generally lower than those observed in KOTI's method. The expressway lines that ranked highest for traffic congestion costs are the Seoul Ring Expressway, Gyeongbu Expressway, and the Youngdong Expressway. Those lines account for 64.54% of the entire expressway traffic congestion costs. In addition, this study estimates the daily traffic congestion costs. The traffic congestion cost on Saturdays is the highest. CONCLUSIONS : This study can be thought of as a new trial to estimate expressway traffic congestion costs by using actual traffic data collected from an entire expressway system in order to overcome the limitations of associated studies. In the future, the methodology for estimating traffic congestion cost is expected to be improved by utilizing associated big-data gathered from other ITS facilities and car navigation systems.

PURPOSES : Expressways experience chronic and recurring congestion, especially during weekends and holidays, because of the increased demands for leisure-related travel. The alternatives to solve chronic and recurring congestion may be three-fold: (1) physical expansion of expressway capacities, (2) road pricing, and (3) temporal and spatial distribution of traffic demands. Among these, the third alternative may be the most cost-effective method for the Korea Expressway Corporation (KEC) that can be achieved by using the existing ITS infrastructure. METHODS : KEC initiated a pilot study in which the traffic on congested expressways was managed by providing traffic condition information (i.e., travel times) of neighboring national highways for taking detours via variable message signs (VMS). This study aimed to estimate the detour rate, and the two pilot studies on Seohaean and Yeongdong expressways yielded many benefits. RESULTS: It was revealed that the total length of congestion segments decreased by 7.8 km, and the average travel speed increased by 5.3 km/h. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these findings, it was concluded that the propagation of detour information via VMSs during congestion hours can help reduce congestion on expressways and increase the benefits of the entire network.

PURPOSES : In link matching using vehicular trajectory in a car navigation system, it is technically difficult to match the location of the subject vehicle with a link on an electronic map in the vehicle on a grade separation highway segment consisting of an elevated highway and atgrade highway, because of the overlap of geometric lines of the two highways. This study was initiated to propose a link matching algorithm using the characteristics of vehicular movement of the subject vehicle. METHODS : The selected test site is the highway segment between Jeong-reung IC and Gil-eum IC where the Inner Circulation Road and Jeong-reung-ro run together. To evaluate the proposed algorithm, this study collected the raw packet data of vehicles that drove on the test site. In a simulation environment, link matching was performed using an existing algorithm as well as the proposed algorithm. RESULTS: It was clearly found that the characteristics of vehicular movements are different on the two highways. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed algorithm outperformed the existing algorithm.

PURPOSES : This study aims to investigate the direct and indirect influence areas from incidents on urban interrupted roadways and to develop traffic management strategies for each influence area. METHODS : Based on a literature review, various traffic management strategies for certain incidents were collected. In addition, the relationship between the measure of effectiveness and the characteristics of incidents was explored using an extensive simulation study. RESULTS : From the simulation studies, traffic delays increased as the number of lane closures increased, and the impact of lane closures was reduced to the direction upstream from the incident site. However, the magnitude of the delay change depended on the degree of saturation. Using these characteristics, the direct and indirect influence areas resulting from incidents were defined, and traffic management strategies were established for each direct and indirect influence area and for each level of incident. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study will contribute to the improvement of national traffic safety by preventing secondary incidents and by effective adaptation to incident events.

PURPOSES : This study evaluated the feasibility of implementing protected-permissive left-turn (PPLT) signals at three-leg signalized intersections. METHODS: A three-leg signalized intersection with permissive left-turn was first selected. A VISSIM simulation model was constructed using data collected from the test site. The VISSIM network was calibrated by adjusting related parameter values in order to minimize the difference between the simulated and surveyed critical gap. The calibrated network was validated by the number of waiting left-turning vehicles per cycle. Finally, the mobility and safety measures were extracted from simulation runs in which permissive, protected left turns as well as PPLTs were realized based on diverse traffic volume scenarios. RESULTS : The mobility-related measures of effectiveness (MOEs) of the case with PPLT outperformed the other two left-turn treatment scenarios. In particular, the average waiting time per cycle for the left-turn vehicles in the case with PPLT was reduced by 30 s. The safetyrelated MOEs of the case with PPLT were somewhat higher than those in the case with protected left-turns and much higher than those in the case with permissive left-turns. CONCLUSIONS : Based on the mobility- and safety-related MOEs generated from the VISSIM simulation runs, the use of PPLT seems to be feasible at three-leg signalized intersections where the left-turn is permissive and a pedestrian signal exists at the conflicting approach. However, in order to use the PPLT in earnest, it is necessary to revise the road traffic act, traffic signs, and related manuals.

PURPOSES : The Toll Collection System (TCS) operated by the Korea Expressway Corporation provides accurate traffic counts between tollgates within the expressway network under the closed-type toll collection system. However, although origin-destination (OD) matrices for a travel demand model can be constructed using these traffic counts, these matrices cannot be directly applied because it is technically difficult to determine appropriate passenger car equivalent (PCE) values for the vehicle types used in TCS. Therefore, this study was initiated to systematically determine the appropriate PCE values of TCS vehicle types for the travel demand model. METHODS: To search for the appropriate PCE values of TCS vehicle types, a traffic demand model based on TCS-based OD matrices and the expressway network was developed. Using the traffic demand model and a genetic algorithm, the appropriate PCE values were optimized through an approach that minimizes errors between actual link counts and estimated link volumes. RESULTS : As a result of the optimization, the optimal PCE values of TCS vehicle types 1 and 5 were determined to be 1 and 3.7, respectively. Those of TCS vehicle types 2 through 4 are found in the manual for the preliminary feasibility study. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the given vehicle delay functions and network properties (i.e., speeds and capacities), the travel demand model with the optimized PCE values produced a MAPE value of 37.7%, RMSE value of 17124.14, and correlation coefficient of 0.9506. Conclusively, the optimized PCE values were revealed to produce estimates of expressway link volumes sufficiently close to actual link counts.

PURPOSES : The control delay in seconds per vehicle is the most important traffic operational index to evaluate the level of service of signalized intersections. Thus, it is very critical to calculate accurate control delay because it is used as a basic quantitative evidence for decision makings regarding to investments on traffic facilities. The control delay consists of time-in-queue delay, acceleration delay, and deceleration delay so that it is technically difficult to directly measure it from fields. Thus, diverse analysis tools, including CORSIM, SYNCHRO, T7F, VISTRO, etc. have been utilized so far. However, each analysis tool may use a unique methodology in calculating control delays. Therefore, the estimated values of control delays may be different by the selection of an analysis tool, which has provided difficulties to traffic engineers in making solid judgments. METHODS: This study was initiated to verify the feasibility of diverse analysis tools, including HCM methodology, CORSIM, SYNCHRO, T7F, VISTRO, in calculating control delays by comparing estimated control delays with that measured from a field. RESULTS : As a result, the selected tools produced quite different values of control delay. In addition, the control delay value estimated using a calibrated CORSIM model was closest to that measured from the field. CONCLUSIONS: First, through the in-depth experiment, it was explicitly verified that the estimated values of control delay may depend on the selection of an analysis tool. Second, among the diverse tools, the value of control delay estimated using the calibrated microscopic traffic simulation model was most close to that measured from the field. Conclusively, analysts should take into account the variability of control delay values according to the selection of a tool in the case of signalized intersection analysis.

PURPOSES : The travel times of expressway buses have been estimated using the travel time data between entrance tollgates and exit tollgates, which are produced by the Toll Collections System (TCS). However, the travel time data from TCS has a few critical problems. For example, the travel time data include the travel times of trucks as well as those of buses. Therefore, the travel time estimation of expressway buses using TCS data may be implicitly and explicitly incorrect. The goal of this study is to improve the accuracy of the expressway bus travel time estimation using DSRC-based travel time by identifying the appropriate analysis period of input data. METHODS : All expressway buses are equipped with the Hi-Pass transponders so that the travel times of only expressway buses can be extracted now using DSRC. Thus, this study analyzed the operational characteristics as well as travel time patterns of the expressway buses operating between Seoul and Dajeon. And then, this study determined the most appropriate analysis period of input data for the expressway bus travel time estimation model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. RESULTS: As a result of feasibility analysis according to the analysis period, overall MAPE values were found to be similar. However, the MAPE values of the cases using similar volume patterns outperformed other cases. CONCLUSIONS: The best input period was that of the case which uses the travel time pattern of the days whose total expressway traffic volumes are similar to that of one day before the day during which the travel times of expressway buses must be estimated.

PURPOSES: Climbing lanes on expressways managed by the Korea Expressway Corporation (KEC) have been hot potatoes due to conflicts between slow-moving vehicles such as trucks and other vehicles at the merging section as well as the less popularity with the slow-moving vehicles. In order to resolve such problems, KEC has altered existing climbing lanes to passing-type climbing lanes in 1999. The new type of climbing lanes showed an apparent improvement in mobility. For example, the speeds of vehicles using both climbing lane and other lanes improved a lot. However, there has been no clear evidence about improved safety. METHODS: This research effort was initiated to evaluate the safety of the new passing-type climbing lanes using the comparison-group(CG) method based on three-year-long traffic accident data sets before and after the change, respectively. RESULTS: The passing-type climbing lanes showed twice increased traffic accidents even though the traffic accidents on old type climbing lanes increased 1.1% during the same periods. In addition, in-depth study, the merging area of the passing-type climbing lanes was found out to be the weakest section where 43.8% traffic accidents out of total traffic accidents happened. It is noted that the merging area of the old type climbing showed only 25.0% traffic accidents. CONCLUSIONS : The new passing-type climbing lanes were found to be weak in terms of safety when compared with the old type climbing lanes. Especially, the merging area should be improved to reduce the risk of traffic conflicts between slow-moving vehicles and other vehicles.

PURPOSES: Using the collected data for crash, traffic volume, and design elements on ramps between 2007 and 2009, this research effort was initiated to develop traffic crash prediction models for expressway ramps. METHODS: Three negative binomial regression models and three zero-inflated negative binomial regression models were developed for individual ramp types, including direct, semi-direct and loop, respectively. For validating the developed models, authors compared the estimated crash frequencies with actual crash frequencies of twelve randomly selected interchanges, the ramps of which have not been used for model developing. RESULTS: The results show that the negative binomial regression models for direct, semi-direct and loop ramps showed 60.3%, 63.8% and 48.7% error rates on average whereas the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models showed 82.1%, 120.4% and 57.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Conclusively, the negative binomial regression models worked better in traffic crash prediction than the zero-inflated negative binomial regression models for estimating the frequency of traffic accidents on expressway ramps.

PURPOSES: Because expressway ramps are very complex segments where diverse roadway design elements dynamically change within relatively short length, drivers on ramps are required to drive their cars carefully for safety. Especially, ramps on expressways are designed to guarantee driving at high speed so that the risk and severity of traffic accidents on expressway ramps may be higher and more deadly than other facilities on expressways. Safe deceleration maneuvers are required on off-ramps, whereas safe acceleration maneuvers are necessary on onramps. This difference in required maneuvers may contribute to dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents by ramp types. Therefore, this study was aimed at developing prediction models of the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps separately in order to consider dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents according to types of ramps. METHODS: Four-year-long traffic accident data between 2007 and 2010 were utilized to distinguish contributing design elements in conjunction with AADT and ramp length. The prediction models were built using the negative binomial regression model consisting of the severity of traffic accident as a dependent variable and contributing design elements as in independent variables. RESULTS: The developed regression models were evaluated using the traffic accident data of the ramps which was not used in building the models by comparing actual and estimated severity of traffic accidents. Conclusively, the average prediction error rates of on-ramps and offramps were 30.5% and 30.8% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction models for the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps will be useful in enhancing the safety on expressway ramps as well as developing design guidelines for expressway ramps.

터널, 교량, 커브구간 등 교통사고위험이 연속적으로 존재하는 도로구간에서의 대형교통사고를 예방하기 위하여 경찰청은 2007년 1월 위험도로구간에서 교통관리 대책의 일환으로서 무인구간속도위반단속시스템 시범설치 운영을 결정하였다. 2007년 12월 영동고속도로 둔내터널 강릉방면을 시작으로 2011년 7월 현재까지 고속도로 8개 구간 및 국도 3개 구간, 총 11개 구간 85km에서 무인구간속도위반단속시스템이 운영 중에 있다. 하지만 이러한 무인구간단속시스템의 설치가 교통사고 감소에 얼마나 기여하는지에 대한 실질적인 연구가 부족하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 고속도로를 중심으로 무인구간속도위반단속시 스템 설치 전 후 교통사고건수를 체계적으로 비교할 수 있는 비교그룹방법을 이용하여 무인구간속도위반단속시스템의 설치효과를 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 2008년 고속도로에 설치된 무인구간속도위반단속시스템을 대상으로 설치 전 후 각 1년의 사고이력자료를 수집하여 분석하였다. 그 결과, 무인구간속도위반단속시스템을 설치하지 않았을 경우에 비해 사업을 시행함으로서 49.97% 사고감소효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다.