본 논문에서는 기저 스크리닝 기반 크리깅 모델(BSKM: Basis Screening based Kriging Model) 생성의 정확도를 높이기 위해 페널티 를 적용한 최대 우도 평가 방법(PMLE : Penalized Maximum Likelihood Estimation)에 대해서 소개한다. BSKM에서 사용하는 기저함 수의 최대 차수와 종류는 그 중요도에 따라서 결정하게 되며, 이때 중요도의 지표는 기저함수에 대한 교차 검증 오차(CVE : Cross Validation Error)로 택한다. 크리깅 모델(KM : Kriging Model) 구성시 최적의 기저함수 조합은 우선 최대 기저함수 차수를 선택하고 개별 기저함수의 중요도를 평가를 하게 된다. 최적 기저함수 조합은 크리깅 모델의 CVE가 최소가 될 때까지 개별 기저함수의 중요도 가 높은 순으로 기저함수를 하나씩 추가하며 찾는다. 이 과정에서 KM은 반복적으로 생성해야 하며, 동시에 데이터 사이의 상관관계 를 나타내는 하이퍼 매개변수(Hyper-parameters)도 최대 우도 평가방법을 통해 계산하여야 한다. 하이퍼 매개변수의 값에 따라 선택 되는 최적의 기저함수 조합이 달라지기 때문에 KM의 정확도에 막대한 영향을 미치게 된다. 정확한 하이퍼 매개변수를 계산하기 위해 서 PMLE 방법을 적용하였으며, Branin-Hoo 함수 문제에 적용하여 BSKM 의 정확성이 개선될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

본 연구에서는 중국 길림성 연변 주 지역의 ‘연변황우’ 소비자 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였음. 먼저 국내외 브랜드 인지 및 구매 의사에 관한 이론을 검토하고 소비자의 브랜드 인식 등의 이론을 바탕으로 연구 가설을 제시하였음. ‘연변황우’에 대한 소비자 구매 의사에 영향을 미치는 요인을 구축하여 분석을 실시하였음. 연구 결과 1. ‘연변황우’ 브랜드 이미지는 소비자의 구매 의사에 긍정적인 영향을 미치며 소비자의 ‘품질 감지’ 요인에 정(+)의 영향을 미침. 2. ‘위험 감지’ 요인에는 부(-)의 영향을 미침. ‘품질 감지’ 요인은 ‘연변황우’ 구매 의사에 긍정적인 영향을 미침. 3. ‘연변황우’의 브랜드 이미지 관리를 강화해야하며 이는 브랜드의 연구관련에 새로운 분야 탐색에 중요한 의의가 있음.

DNA 바코드를 기반으로 하여 외국발 국내 입항 선박에서 검출되는 편승자 해충(hitchhiker insect pests)에 대한 모니터링을 수행하였다. 국내 입항 선박 조사는 2018년 6월 1일부터 2018년 9월 17일까지 약 109일간 111개 선박에 대해 실시하였다. 모니터링 대상 해충은 ‘보고잡기법(simply collecting method by hands)’으로 확보하였으며, 총 336개체에 대해 종동정을 실시하였으며, 이를 통해 확보된 정보들은 선박정보(선박명, 선박번호, 출항지, 입항지), 조사정보(조 사일, 채집시 표본 상태, 조사자), 유전자 분석 정보(프라이머 정보, 서열판독 결과), 분자생물학적 종동정 정보(NCBI GenBank Accession No., NCBI Blast Searching Results, BOLD Identification Request), 분류학적 통합종 확증 정보(목명, 과명, 종명, 동정자, 비고) 등으로 구분하였으며, MS-Excel을 이용하여 각 필드값에 맞게 기초정보를 입력하였다. 이를 기반으로 하여 편승자 해충에 대한 선박 경로에 따른 편승 양상뿐만 아니라, 월별, 분류군별, 미서식종별로 편승 양상을 분석하였다. 그 결과, 편승사례는 선박 경로에 따라서는 중국에서 출항하거나 중국을 거쳐 편승하는 사례가 207건, 월별로는 9월이 134건, 분류군별로는 나비목이 208건으로 가장 많았다. 특히, 미서식종별 편승 양상에서 는 총 3목 9과 13종 21개체가 국내 입항 선박에서 검출된 것으로 나타났으며, 이 중 2목 6과 9종 15개체는 살아있는 상태로 채집된 것을 확인되었다. 이와 같은 결과로 볼 때, 앞으로 더욱 많은 정보가 확보된다면, 현재의 통계 분석 방법은 편승자 해충의 모니터링뿐만 아니라 대상 해충의 위험성 평가 및 검역검사에 매우 효율적인 정보를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

The Internet is providing companies with an opportunity to market their goods more widely than has been the case in the past. This is having implications for senior managers as it means that some luxury goods are being made available to a wider market segment than previously and also, there are issues as regards authenticity and counterfeiting for example. Cultural value systems underpin psychological needs which are taken into account when advertising a brand and in addition, marketers are keen to build a relationship with customers, which takes into account the customers’ psychological aspirations. Meeting consumer expectations is crucial in the luxury sector because of the value placed on uniqueness and the price-quality dynamic. Bearing these points in mind, the research question to be addressed in this paper is: How can marketers utilize the Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty & Cacioppo 1984 & 1986) in order to maintain the quality of the luxury brand and develop a relationship with high net worth individuals while marketing the product online? The aim of the paper is to explain how marketers can develop a better understanding of how the Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty & Cacioppo 1984 & 1986) can be utilized to develop theoretical insights into promoting luxury goods online. Bearing this in mind, two research objectives were formed: (i) to explain how the Elaboration Likelihood Model can be used to formulate international luxury brand strategies; and (ii) to provide guidance as to how marketers can develop a better understanding of marketing luxury products online. The study will build on the work of Hennessey and Anderson (1990), as it will explain how involvement affects motivation vis-à-vis luxury brands. By studying luxury brands, the Internet, and social psychology, it should be possible for marketers to provide marketing practitioners with relevant theoretical insights into how marketing theory is evolving and is applied in practice. The Elaboration Likelihood Model represents “a fairly general framework for organizing, categorizing, and understanding the basis processes underlying the effectiveness of persuasive communications” (Petty & Cacioppo, 1986, p.125) and proves ideal with respect to researching cultural value systems. The Elaboration Likelihood Model allows academic researchers to look into and comprehend cognitive processing (Cacipppo, Harkins, & Petty, 1981, p.37). The main strength of the Elaboration Likelihood Model is that the variables that can impact certain judgements are made clear and in addition, the processes underlyingchanges in attitude are made known and so too are the resulting judgements (Petty, Rucker, Bizer, & Cacioppo, 2004, pp.66-67). The Elaboration Likelihood Model has been extensively used by marketing academics and has relevance in terms of how people formulate a systematic information processing strategy (De Meulenaer, Dens, & De Pelsmacker, 2015, p.610). Marketers are concerned about the price-quality dynamic and also the trust construct (Shu-Chen, Wanchiao, Sung, & Cheng-Kiang, 2006) and risk (Park, Lennon, & Stoel, 2005) vis-à-vis buying online. Furthermore, how online consumers interpret signals has been given attention (San Martin, Camarero & San Jose, 2011) and according to Areni (2003), argument-driven persuasion is important and will be given attention in the study. Attention will be given to luxury branding, the development of an international brand strategy and how marketers can protect a luxury brand through a marketing intelligence strategy that counteracts counterfeiting. As well as utilizing data collected via a group interview, reference will be made to data collected over a three year period using a survey instrument. The Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty & Cacioppo 1984 & 1986) will be used as a basis for providing a framework for understanding how a luxury brand can be perceived and protected, and the research outcome will be used by marketers to advise senior management about the need for implementing an integrated international luxury brand strategy. For example, research has been undertaken into the relevance of the construct trustworthiness and it is important to note that “trustworthiness is an attribute of individual exchange partners” (Barney and Hansen, 1994, p.176). This is an important observation because the producers of luxury goods depend on a number of external specialists (eg., designers, communication and public relations advisors, and manufacturers of specialist components) in order to help the company to add value to the product/service and make sure that it is viewed as unique. Marketers employed by a luxury goods producer need to ensure that data and information relating to the product offering is well guarded because they need to have confidence in the fact that there are no vulnerabilities in existence. A vulnerability could result in leakage of sensitive data and information (e.g., a new design) and result in a loss in intellectual property and ultimately brand piracy and reputational damage. By failing to identify potential vulnerabilities and deal with them through adequate counter threat measures, it is likely that it will take several years and require a repositioning and a rebranding strategy to recover the brand in the market. What we are advocating is a marketing counterintelligence strategy that is aimed at reinforcing the need and usefulness of security to protect the brand and ensure that the brand is not diluted in any way. Another reason as to why marketers need to engage in risk management is because there are a number of country-of-origin issues that arise and need to be addressed. Balabanis and Diamantopoulos (2011) have indicated that consumers are not always able to link a brand correctly with its country-of-origin and this may prove problematic. This is linked with brand image perceptions and again the Elaboration Likelihood Model can help to provide evidence that is used by marketers to overcome consumer misperceptions. Reflecting on the fact that marketers are confronted with legitimate competition (products and services compete in adherence with regulatory processes) as well asillegal forms of competition, it can also be argued that marketers need to be aware of and embrace the standards that govern the production of the product/service to the quality specified. Thus, senior management need to ensure that employees lower down the organizational hierarchy are committed to maintaining the standards that are in being (Ghoshal and Bartlett, 1994, p.96). Ghoshal and Bartlett (1994, p.98 and pp.106-107) add to our understanding by suggesting that marketers need also to have a shared ambition and participate in a collective decision-making, which relies upon collective learning. The logic of this view manifests in the fact that the Elaboration Likelihood Model is used to reinforce and condition the views of the employees as well as the organization’s customers and because it has both an internal and an external dimension. Because marketers work closely with organizational strategists that are outward looking and intelligence driven, and liaise with R&D, technology and production staff that are inward looking and security driven, they are well able to contribute to the risk management process and advise on all the aspects of marketing strategy. The research undertaken will be placed within a strategic marketing context and the learning aspect will be drawn upon to show how marketers can link social psychology theory with marketing theory, and how risk communication can be used to reinforce the advertising message. The paper will explore the advertising-consumer perception dynamic and will examine how the Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty & Cacioppo 1984 & 1986) can be used to promote the uniqueness of a luxury good to individual consumers who share and exchange information using social networks. The influence of social networks is growing and marketers need to be aware of how and why consumers share and exchange information as they do across geographical boundaries. In particular, it will build on the work of Michaelidou and Christodoulides (2011) by establishing how certain psychological factors influence attitudes towards counterfeited products and what marketers can do to counteract these attitudes. This will contribute to the literature because it will highlight both price related and ethical related issues associated with the purchasing of counterfeited goods. In addition, it will allow marketers to identify trends in customer buying behavior and build on the work of Jack and Powers (2013) relating to shopping behavior and consumer satisfaction. By understanding better the motivations of those that purchase luxury products, marketers will be better able to plan product offerings and formulate and implement promotional strategies.

Recent large scale surveys such as Sloan Digital Sky Survey have produced homogeneous samples of multiple-image gravitationally lensed quasars with well-defined selection effects. Statistical analysis on these can yield independent constraints on cosmological parameters. Here we use the image separation statistics of lensed quasars from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Quasar Lens Search (SQLS) to derive constraints on cosmological parameters. Our analysis does not require knowledge of the magnification bias, which can only be estimated from the detailed knowledge on the quasar luminosity function at all redshifts, and includes the consideration for the bias against small image separation quasars due to selection against faint lens galaxy in the follow-up observations for confirmation. We first use the mean image separation of the lensed quasars as a function of redshift to find that cosmological models with extreme curvature are inconsistent with observed lensed quasars. We then apply the maximum likelihood test to the statistical sample of 16 lensed quasars that have both measured redshift and magnitude of lens galaxy. The likelihood incorporates the probability that the observed image separation is realized given the luminosity of the lens galaxy in the same manner as Im et al. (1997). We find that the 95% confidence range for the cosmological constant (i.e., the vacuum energy density) is 0.72 ≤  ≤ 1.0 for a flat universe. We also find that the equation of state parameter can be consistent with −1 as long as the matter density m . 0.4 (95% confidence range). We conclude that the image separation statistics incorporating the brightness of lens galaxies can provide robust constraints on the cosmological parameters.

This paper showed the difference between the selectivity of gill net by least square method with polynomials in Kitahara's and that by maximum likelihood analysis for Japanese sandfish and Korean flounder. Catch experiments for Japanese sandfish using commercial vessels off the eastern coast of Korea were conducted with six different mesh sizes between October and December 2007 and those for Korean flounder with five different mesh sizes between 2008 and 2009. The mesh size of 50% probability of catch corresponding to biological maturity length of fish was not different between that by least square method and that by maximum likelihood analysis for Japanese sandfish, however, a little different for Korean flounder, that is, those mesh sizes of 50% probability of catch for biological maturity length of Korean flounder were 10.6cm and 10.1cm by least square method and maximum likelihood analysis, respectively.

The likelihood of failure for the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of caustic cracking, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that SCC of the caustic cracking was occurred above 5 % NaOH concentration, and the technical module subfactor (TMSF) was maximized for above 50 % concentration. The heat traced and monitoring were not sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. But the steam out was more of less affect minimum value of the TMSF. Also, the inspection number, the inspection effectiveness, and the year since inspection were very sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. Therefore, the plan of next inspection will be established with compositively considering those at once.

The likelihood of failure by the corrosion of high temperature H2S/H2, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the corrosion rate was increased as temperature and H2S concentration were increased. Also, the technical module subfactor(TMSF) was increased as an used you increased, material thickness decreased, inspection number decreased, and inspection effectiveness increased. In these conditions, the maximum value of TMSF was not varied, but the TMSF was sensitively varied at low temperature for high concentration of H2S.

The likelihood of failure for the thinning of high temperature sulfide and naphthenic acid corrosion, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the corrosion rate was increased with increasing temperature and total acid number(TAN). And maximum value of the technical module subfactor(TMSF) was not varied with operating condition, but the TMSF was sensitively changed at the range of low temperature, low flow rate, and high TAN. Also, the TMSF was increased as an used year and inspection effectiveness increased, but it was increased as thickness, inspection number, and over design decreased.

Likelihood of failure for the external corrosion of carbon and low alloy steels, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the Inspection effectiveness and the used year increased. In this condition, the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, poor quality of coating, no insulation, and low insulation condition.

Likelihood of failure (LOF) for the external corrosion of stainless steel, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the inspection effectiveness and the used year increased, and that the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, In this condition, the LOF for the external corrosion of stainless steel had lower than that for the carbon and low alloy steels

여러 지질재해 중에서 산사태로부터 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 미래의 산사태에 대해 취약한 지역의 추정이 필요하다. 산사태 위험성의 정량적 분석을 목적으로, 본 논문에서는 확률론적 공간통합 방법인 베이지안 기법의 적용가능성에 대해서 논의하고자 한다. 우선 산사태 발생과 관련이 있는 여러 공간자료의 확률론적 표현을 위해 우도비 함수를 사용하였으며, 베이지안 결합 규칙을 이용하여 최종적으로 통합된 검증을 수행하였다. 이러한 방법의 적용가능성을 검토하기 위하여 1998년 여름 산사태 공간 분포의 분할을 통한 검증을 수행하였다. 이러한 방법의 적용가능성을 검토하기 위하여 1998년 여름 산사태로 피해를 입은 경기도 장흥지역을 대상으로 사례연구를 수행하였다. 사례연구 수행 결과, 우도비에 기반한 베이지안 공간 통합 기법은 효율적으로 다양한 공간 자료를 통합할 수 있었으며, 검증결과는 해석과 의사결정 보조자료로 이용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

This paper presents an approach to derive likelihood models for use in engineering design problems. One main point is made. It is that incorporating engineering knowledge into a likelihood model is possible. The work is foundational in nature, but is developed with an explicit example taken from fatigue failure problem of a structural component, the Paris crack-propagation criterion, and a modified truncated Gaussian distribution.

We present new approach to analysis of velocity data of globular clusters. Maximum likelihood method is applied to get model parameters such as central potential, anisotropy radius, and total mass fractions in each mass class. This method can avoid problems in conventional binning method of chi-square. We utilize three velocity components, one from line of sight radial velocity and two from proper motion data. In our simplified scheme we adopt 3 mass-component model with unseen high mass stars, intermediate visible stars, and low mass dark remnants. Likelihood values are obtained for 124 stars in M13 for various model parameters. Our preferred model shows central potential of W o = 7 and anisotropy radius with 7 core radius. And it suggests non-negligible amount of unseen high mass stars and considerable amount of dark remnants in M13.

This study examines the relationship between the attributes of board structure and the likelihood of financial distress for the non-financial sector of an emerging market characterized by concentrated ownership and family-controlled business. The present study utilized panel logistic regression to estimate the relationship between board structure attributes and the likelihood of financial distress. We used Altman Z-Score as a proxy for firm financial distress, as this tool measures the financial distress inversely. The study finds a significant relationship between board size and the likelihood of financial distress. The results show that a one-unit increase in board size would decrease the probability of financial distress by 3.4%. Further, we observe that a greater level of board independence is associated with a lower likelihood of financial distress. A one-unit increase in board independence would decrease the probability of financial distress by 20.4%. We also find a significant positive impact of leverage on the likelihood of financial distress. The present study contributes to the body of literature on board structure attributes and likelihood of financial distress in emerging markets, like Pakistan. Furthermore, the findings would be beneficial for corporate policymakers and investors in formulating corporate financial strategy and predicting business failure.