We develop forecast models of daily probabilities of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten magnetic parameters characterizing size, distribution, and non-potentiality of vector magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray flare data. The magnetic parameters are classified into three types: the total unsigned parameters, the total signed parameters, and the mean parameters. We divide the data into two sets chronologically: 70% for training and 30% for testing. The empirical relationships between the parameters and flaring rates are used to predict flare occurrence probabilities for a given magnetic parameter value. Major results of this study are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with ten parameters having correlation coefficients above 0.85. Second, logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by linear equations. Third, using total unsigned and signed parameters achieved better performance for predicting flares than the mean parameters in terms of verification measures of probabilistic and converted binary forecasts. We conclude that the total quantity of non-potentiality of magnetic fields is crucial for flare forecasting among the magnetic parameters considered in this study. When this model is applied for operational use, it can be used using the data of 21:00 TAI with a slight underestimation of 2–6.3%.

본 연구는 국내 냉동보관창고 보관온도에 대한 조사자료를 활용하여, 온도분포를 추정하였고 이를 미생물 위해 평가(microbial risk assessment; MRA)의 입력변수로 활용 할 수 있도록 적정 확률분포 모델을 제시하였다. 조사에 참여한 8곳의 냉동보관창고에서 측정된 공간상의 온도는 최저 -25.8oC, 최고 -10.3oC, 평균 -20.48 ± 3.08oC이었으며, - 18oC이상의 냉동창고 비율은 20.4%로 조사되었다. 공간별 온도분포는 자연대류를 이용하는 냉동창고의 경우 상단 (2.4~4 m) -22.57 ± 0.84oC, 중단(1.5~2.4 m) -22.49 ± 1.05oC, 하단(0.7~1.5 m) -22.68 ± 1.03oC, 최고온도차이는 1.78oC이 었으며, 강제대류를 이용하는 냉동창고의 온도분포는 상단 (2.4~4 m) -17.81 ± 1.47oC, 중단(1.5~2.4 m) -17.94 ± 1.44oC, 하단(0.7~1.5 m) -18.08 ± 1.42oC, 최고온도차이는 0.94oC로 조사되었다. 보관온도는 냉동창고 모든 공간에서 온도가 일정하게 유지되는 것이 아니라 편차가 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 수집된 온도자료는 @RISK를 이용, 적합성 검정(GOF: A-D, K-S test)을 수행하여, MRA에서 활용할 수 있는 국내 냉동보관창고 온도분포에 대한 가장 적합한 확률분포모델로 Lognormal [5.9731,3.3483, shift(-26.4281)] 이 선정하였다.

Analysis of water quality distribution is very important for river water quality management. Recently, various studies have been conducted on the analysis of water quality distribution according to reduction methods of nonpoint pollutant. The objective of this study was to select the probability distributions of water quality constituents (T-N, T-P, COD, SS) according to the farming forms (control, slow release fertilizer, water depth control) during non-storm period in the paddy fields. The field monitoring was conducted monitoring site located in Baeksan-myun, Buan-gun, Jeollabuk-do, Korea during non-storm period from May to September in 2016. Our results showed that there were no differences in water quality among three different farming forms, except for SS of control and water depth control. K-S method was used to analyzed the probability distributions of T-N, T-P, COD and SS concentrations discharged from paddy fields. As a results of the fitness analysis, T-N was not suitable for the normal probability distribution in the slow release fertilizer treatment, and the log-normal probability distribution was not suitable for the T-P in control treatment. The gamma probability distribution showed that T-N and T-P in control and slow release fertilizer treatment were not suitable. The Weibull probability distribution was found to be suitable for all water quality constituents of control, slow release fertilizer, and water depth control treatments. However, our results presented some differences from previous studies. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the characteristics of pollutants flowing out in difference periods according to various farming types. The result of this study can help to understand the water quality characteristics of the river.

확률형 아이템은 부분 유료화 게임모델에서 게임사의 수익 창출을 위한 장치로서 도입되었으며, 게임 이용자가 현금 또는 게임머니 등을 투입(구입)한 후 우연 또는 확률에 따라 일정한 보상 아이템을 획득하는 구조를 기본적인 특징으로 하고 있다. 확률형 아이템은 오락으로서의 게임의 흥미를 증대시킬 수 있다는 장점이 있으나, 한편으로 는 사행성을 부추기는 측면이 있고 특히 미성년자에게 유해한 영향을 미칠 수 있으므로, 일정한 수준에서 그 도박적⋅사행적 성격을 제한하기 위한 조치가 필요하다. 아직 국내에서는 확률형 아이템에 대한 규제가 미비한 실정이며 게임업계 자체적으로 자율규제를 통한 모니터링을 진행하고 있으나 자율규제의 적용범위의 한계, 이행 강제수단의 미비 등 실효성에 대한 의문이 지속적으로 제기되고 있다. 해외에서는 일찍이 확률형 아이템을 도박으로 규율 할 수 있을지를 둘러싸고 논의가 활발히 이루어졌다. 영국, 미국, 프랑스, 독일, 네덜란드, 호주 등 대부분의 국가에서는 확률형 아이템이 도박에 해당하기 위해서는 확률에 의해 획득한 아이템에 현실적인 경제적 가치가 인정되어야 하는데, 확률형 아이템을 통해 획득한 아이템이 게임 외부에서 거래될 수 있는 가능성이 없는 경우에는 그 자체에 경제적 가치가 있다고 보기는 어렵다는 입장이 주도적인 것으로 보인다. 반면 벨기에에서는 게임 아이템의 거래 가능성과는 무관하게 확률형 아이템이 도박에 해당한다는 유권해석이 등장하였고 이에 따른 제재가 이루어지고 있는 실정이다. 우리나라 형법상 도박은 2인 이상이 재물 또 는 재산상 이익을 걸고 우연에 의하여 재물 또는 재산상 이익의 득실을 결정하는 것을 의미한다. 확률형 아이템이 도박에 해당하는지를 판단함에 있어 핵심적인 부분은 획득한 아이템이 ‘재물 또는 재산상 이익’에 해당한다고 볼 수 있는지 및 투입한 금전의 가치보다 획득한 아이템의 가치가 낮은 경우에 ‘손실’이 발생하였다고 볼 수 있는지의 문제일 것이다. 게임 아이템의 경제적 가치 인정 여부 및 가치 측정 가능성에 관하여는 부정설, 투입설, 거래 가능성설, 거래 활성화설 등 다양한 층위의 견해가 제시되고 있고 모두 일견 타당한 논거를 갖추고 있는 것으로 보인다. 한편 확률형 아이템을 어떠한 수단과 방법으로 규율할 것인지에 대하여는 정부 차원의 강제성이 있는 규제와 게임업계 내부의 자율적인 규제를 주장하는 입장이 대립되고 있고 두 가지 방안의 장점을 적절히 조화하여야 한다는 절충안도 제시되고 있다. 규제의 실효성 및 유연성이라는 측면에서 더욱 풍부 한 논의가 필요할 것으로 생각된다. 다양한 논의를 통한 사회적 합의가 선행될 때 비로소 확률형 아이템에 대한 합리적인 수준의 규제가 도입될 수 있을 것이다.

The annual production of silver croaker (Argyrosomus argentatus) in Korean towed fishing gears has been increased in recent five years. In 2017, the annual production of silver croaker in metric ton was increased 99.2% compared to 2013. However, the research for silver croaker has been focused on ecology in Korea. There has not been enough research in terms of fishing gears. Therefore, the research for retention probability for towed gears was conducted on covered codend method from June, 2016 to July, 2018. During the experiments, the total catch of silver croaker was 1,563. The geometry of the experimental trawl gear was controlled by trawl monitoring system; net height was 3.3 m, distance of trawldoors was 59.8 m and distance of wing net was 17.3 m. The selection curve for silver croaker was estimated by a logit model. The analysis was applied with the confidence interval to reduce uncertainty of the estimation. The l50 was 13.87 cm and its selection range was 2.71 cm. P-value was estimated at 0.99. The mesh size for silver croaker in towed gears needs to be adjusted by considering its minimum maturity length, stakeholder’s interests and fisheries regulations.

There always exist nonzero inspection errors whether inspectors are humans or automatic inspection machines. Inspection errors can be categorized by two types, type I error and type II error, and they can be regarded as either a constant or a random variable. Under the assumption that two types of random inspection errors are distributed with the “uniform” distribution on a half-open interval starting from zero, it was proved that inspectors overestimate any given fraction defective with the probability more than 50%, if and only if the given fraction defective is smaller than a critical value, which depends upon only the ratio of a type II error over a type I error. In addition, it was also proved that the probability of overestimation approaches one hundred percent as a given fraction defective approaches zero. If these critical phenomena hold true for any error distribution, then it might have great economic impact on commercial inspection plans due to the unfair overestimation and the recent trend of decreasing fraction defectives in industry. In this paper, we deal with the same overestimation problem, but assume a “symmetrical triangular” distribution expecting better results since our triangular distribution is closer to a normal distribution than the uniform distribution. It turns out that the overestimation phenomenon still holds true even for the triangular error distribution.

PURPOSES: This study is to estimate nondestructive strength equation based on probability for bridges using field test data. METHODS: In this study, a series of the field inspection and the test have been performed on 297 existing bridges, in order to evaluate the bridges, based on the test results of the in-depth inspection, and the estimated strengths by means of the nondestructive strength equations are analyzed and compared with results of the core specimen strengths. RESULTS: According to results of analyses, In case of standard design compressive strength of concrete is 18MPa, 21MPa, similar reliability of RILEM equation were 0.89~0.90, but in case of standard design compressive strength of concrete is 35MPa, 40MPa were 0.4~0.56. According to standard design compressive strength of concrete is 40MPa, similar reliability of ultrasonic pulse velocity method equation were 0.56. CONCLUSIONS: RILEM equation had high similar reliability than other equation in case of standard design compressive strength of concrete is 18MPa, 21MPa, but had low similar reliability than other equation in case of standard design compressive strength of concrete is 35MPa, 40MPa. and ultrasonic pulse velocity method equation had low similar reliability than other equation in case of standard design compressive strength of concrete is 40MPa.

To perform the Maritime Safety Audi Scheme, 10-4 was constantly applied without adjustment when evaluating the proximity of the fairway. The necessity of applying the different aberrancy probabilities from the different proximity of the fairway depending on the shape of the route and the size of the ship was validated using marine simulations. Marine simulation was performed to evaluate the validity of statistical analysis-based aberrancy probability according to the different shapes of routes and ship size presented in the previous study. As results, the validity of the criterion of the statistical analysis-based aberrancy probability was confirmed by comparing with the results of simulation-based aberrancy probabilities. The results support that the aberrancy probabilities by the types of a vessel could be different based on the type and size of vessels. The results motivate that further investigation is required to find the reasonable criteria of the aberrancy probabilities for the maritime traffic safety audit according to the fairway shape and the size of the vessel.

We investigated the neural representation of reward probability recognition and its neural connectivity with other regions of the brain. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we used a simple guessing task with different probabilities of obtaining rewards across trials to assay local and global regions processing reward probability. The results of whole brain analysis demonstrated that lateral prefrontal cortex, inferior parietal lobe, and postcentral gyrus were activated during probability-based decision making. Specifically, the higher the expected value was, the more these regions were activated. Fronto-parietal connectivity, comprising inferior parietal regions and right lateral prefrontal cortex, conjointly engaged during high reward probability recognition compared to low reward condition, regardless of whether the reward information was extrinsically presented. Finally, the result of a regression analysis identified that cortico-subcortical connectivity was strengthened during the high reward anticipation for the subjects with higher cognitive impulsivity. Our findings demonstrate that interregional functional involvement is involved in valuation based on reward probability and that personality trait such as cognitive impulsivity plays a role in modulating the connectivity among different brain regions.

PURPOSES: The objective of this study is to establish the traffic volume-based warrants of right-turn lanes at unsignalized intersections and to introduce a risk probability methodology based on the warrants.METHODS : In this study, a risk probability of a potential rear-end collision is applied between a right-turn vehicle and the immediately following through vehicle. Using the shifted negative exponential model and the compound probability theorem, the risk probability can be expressed as the function of directional volumes and the percentage of right-turns for a two-lane and four-lane highway, respectively.RESULTS : Based on the risk probablity, guidelines for installing right-turn lanes on two-lane and four-lane highways were developed. The risk probability also showed rationality by comparing with right-turn same-direction conflicts observed in-situ.CONCLUSIONS : The results of our study define the total approaching volumes to encourage a right-turn lane as a function of operating speed, percentage of right-turn, and number of lanes.

This study aimed to estimate the odor emission rate from swine nursery facilities (naturally and mechanically ventilated) using probability distribution. Odor occurrence trends in the study facilities were very different; odor concentration and gas flow had a lognormal distribution. Monte Carlo simulation was used to carry out the uncertainty analysis. Odor emission rate was found to range from 18.05 OU/sec (10th percentile) to 621.88 OU/ sec (90th percentile), and odor emission rate per head ranged from 0.02 OU/sec · head (10th percentile) to 0.64 OU/ sec · head (90th percentile).

본 연구에서는 신갈나무와 졸참나무 임분의 입지환경인자 및 기후인자 자료를 활용하여 출현확률을 평가하였으며, 자료 분석은 Binary logit model을 이용하였다. 추정 결과, 신갈나무는 해발이 높고, 산복이나 산정의 지형에서 확률이 높게 나타난 반면 졸참나무는 대체로 해발고가 높지 않으며, 평탄지와 완구릉지에 비하여 산록과 산복의 지형에서 확률이 증가되는 경향이 나타났다. 그 외 적색산림토양군의 토성을 가지는 지형과 점토군이 아닌 미사군과 모래군으로 갈수록 출현확률이 높아지는 공통적인 특성이 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 장기적인 산림경영 측면에서 조림수종 선정에 유용하게 활용 될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

The risk-based assessment, also called time-based assessment of structure is usually performed to provide seismic risk evaluation of a target structure for its entire life-cycle, e.g. 50 years. The prediction of collapse probability is the estimator in the risk-based assessment. While the risk-based assessment is the key in the performance-based earthquake engineering, its application is very limited because this evaluation method is very expensive in terms of simulation and computational efforts. So the evaluation database for many archetype structures usually serve as representative of the specific system. However, there is no such an assessment performed for building stocks in Korea. Consequently, the performance objective of current building code, KBC is not clear at least in a quantitative way. This shortcoming gives an unresolved issue to insurance industry, socio-economic impact, seismic safety policy in national and local governments. In this study, we evaluate the comprehensive seismic performance of an low-rise residential buildings with discontinuous structural walls, so called piloti-type structure which is commonly found in low-rise domestic building stocks. The collapse probability is obtained using the risk integral of a conditioned collapse capacity function and regression of current hazard curve. Based on this approach it is expected to provide a robust tool to seismic safety policy as well as seismic risk analysis such as Probable Maximum Loss (PML) commonly used in the insurance industry.