격납건물은 원자력 발전소의 중대 사고 발생시 방사성 물질의 외부 방출을 막는 심층 방어 체계 중 마지막 방벽이다. 중대사고 발생시 격납건물 내부에선 노심 융해와 수소 발생으로 인한 내압 상승과 증기 폭발로 인한 구조적 손상이 일어나며, 이에 대한 구조적 건전성을 평가하기 위해 격납건물에 대 한 극한 내압 성능 평가를 실시한다. 극한 내압 성능 평가 방법 중 확률론적 평가시 현실적인 제약으 로 인해 고신뢰도 유한요소해석 모델을 이용하며 이때에 불확실성 인자들의 확률 분포 특성을 고려한 데이터 셋을 샘플링 기법을 이용하여 구성한 후 비선형 해석을 실시한다. 도출된 비선형 해석 결과는 취약도 곡선을 도출에 사용되며, 취약도 곡선을 이용하여 확률론적인 평가가 실시된다. 샘플링 기법에 따라 적절한 표본 크기가 아닌 데이터셋을 구성하게 되면 통계적 불확실성으로 인한 취약성 분석의 오차가 증대된다. 하지만 유한요소해석시 발생하는 막대한 계산 비용으로 인하여 기존의 방식은 적절 한 샘플링 크기 선정 및 부적절한 샘플링 크기 선정으로 인한 확률론적인 성능평가에 대한 영향에 대 한 정량화 및 평가를 제한적으로 수행하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 격납건물의 재료적 특성 및 내압 으로 인한 변위 데이터를 기반으로 생성한 인공신경망 모델을 통해 유한요소 해석에 대한 대리모델을 생성한다. 이후 생성한 대리모델을 기반으로 일반적인 불확실성 분포 샘플링에 사용되는 Monte Carlo method, latin hypercube sampling, Sobol sequence을 이용하여 표본 크기에 따른 격납건물 확률론적 인 극한내압성능 평가에 대한 영향을 정량화 및 평가를 실시하겠다. 이를 통해 제한적으로 탐색되었던 불확실성 공간에 대하여, 그 통계적 불확실성 및 전방위적인 탐색이 가능해 질것으로 기대한다.

The Republic of Korea (ROK), as a member state of the IAEA, is operating the State’s System of Accounting for and Control (SSAC) and conducting independent national inspections. Furthermore, an evaluation methodology for the material unaccounted for (MUF) is being developed in ROK to enhance capabilities of national inspection. Generally, physical and chemical changes of nuclear material are unavoidable due to the operating system and structure of facilities, an accumulation of material unaccounted for (MUF) has been issued. IAEA developed statistical MUF evaluation method that can be applied to all facilities around the world and it mainly focuses on the diversion detection of nuclear materials in facilities. However, in terms of the national safeguard inspection, an evaluation of accountancy in facilities is additionally needed. Therefore, in this research, a new approach to MUF evaluation is suggested, based on the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) that an evaluation of measurement uncertainty factors is straightforward. A hypothetical list of inventory items (LII) which has 6,118 items at the beginning and end of the material balance period, along with 360 inflow and outflow nuclear material items at a virtual fuel fabrication plant was employed for both the conventional IAEA MUF evaluation method and the proposed GUM-based method. To calculate the measurement uncertainty, it was assumed that an electronic balance, gravimetry, and a thermal ionization mass spectrometer were used for a measurement of the mass, concentration, and enrichment of 235U, respectively. Additionally, it was considered that independent and correlated uncertainty factors were defined as random factors and systematic factors for the ease of uncertainty propagation by the GUM. The total MUF uncertainties of IAEA (σMUF) and GUM (uMUF) method were 37.951 and 36.692 kg, respectively, under the aforementioned assumptions. The difference is low, it was demonstrated that the GUM method is applicable to the MUF evaluation. The IAEA method demonstrated its applicability to all nuclear facilities, but its calculated errors exhibited low traceability due to its simplification. In contrast, the calculated uncertainty based on the GUM method exhibited high reliability and traceability, as it allows for individual management of measurement uncertainty based on the facility’s accounting information. Consequently, the application of the GUM approach could offer more benefits than the conventional IAEA method in cases of national safeguard inspections where factor analysis is required for MUF assessment.

Since 2018, Central Research Institute of Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP–CRI) has been operating an X-ray irradiation system with a maximum voltage of 160 kV and 320 kV X-ray tube to test personal dosimeters in accordance with ANSI N13.11-2009 “Personnel Dosimetry Performance- Criteria for Testing”. This standard requires that dosimeters for the photon category testing be irradiated with the X-ray beams appropriate to the ISO beam quality requirements. KHNP-CRI has implemented the fourteen X-ray reference radiation beams in compliance with ISO-4037-1, 2, and 3. When installing the X-ray irradiation system, KHNP-CRI evaluated the uncertainties of dose conversion coefficients for deep and shallow doses, based on “Catalogue of X-ray spectra and their characteristic data – ISO and DIN radiation qualities, therapy and diagnostic radiation qualities, unfiltered X-ray spectra” published by Physikalisch Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB). A CdTe detector (X-123, AMPTEK) with disk type collimators made of tungsten was used to acquire X-ray spectra. The detector was located at 1 m from the center of the target material in the Xray tubes. Six uncertainty factors for the dose conversion coefficients for the fourteen X-ray beams were chosen as follows; the minimum and maximum cut-off energies Emin and Emax, the air density (ρ), the accuracy of the high-voltage of the X-ray tube, statistics of the pulse height spectra and the unfolding method. For example, uncertainty of each quantity for a HK30 beam was calculated to be 0.3%, 2.32%, 0.19%, 1.25%, and 0.13%, and 0.18%, respectively. The combined standard uncertainty for the deep dose conversion coefficient of the HK30 beam was calculated to be 2.67%. The coverage factor corresponding to a 95 percent confidence interval was obtained as k = 1.8 using a Monte Carlo method, which is slightly lower the coverage factor of k = 1.95 for a Gaussian distribution. This seems to result from that two dominant uncertainties, the unfolding uncertainty and minimum cut-off energy uncertainty, follow a rectangular distribution.

The Republic of Korea is implementing safeguards for domestic nuclear facilities through cooperation with the IAEA. But it is not to evaluate the material balance for the material unaccounted for, MUF in the bulk handling facility. Although the development of a material balance evaluation program is underway, there are no related regulations. The State Regulatory Authority, SRA is performing material balance evaluation, MBE on the facility based on the design information and material balance results of the facility. However, it is not possible to directly derive measurement uncertainty for the facility’s measurement equipment, which is an important variable of MBE. To solve this problem, it is trying to derive a method suitable for the domestic environment by investigating the some measurement uncertainty estimation methods and analyzing characteristics of them. In this study, the traditional measurement uncertainty estimation method, GUM method and GUM-S1 method were studied and the advantages and disadvantages were analyzed. Due to the problems mentioned above, the uncertainty quantification technique currently being used cannot be applied to the evaluation of the domestic material balance. Therefore, we are tying to apply them to the evaluation the domestic material balance through the above three methods or a combination of them appropriately. Through this continuing study, it is expected that it will be possible to present a plan to derive measurement uncertainty optimized for the domestic MBE environment.

National Standard Reference Center from Ministry of Trade Industry and Energy at Dec.30 2008. The fields of designation were nuclear fuel and energy materials. NFDC produces standard reference data of nuclear fuel and materials. To ensure reliability of experimental data uncertainty should be estimated. There are two kinds of uncertainty: A-type uncertainty from tester and B-type uncertainty from experimental equipments. To reduce the former, the measurement should be repeated for sufficient amount of times, and to reduce the latter type uncertainty all equipment have to be calibrated. In this study the uncertainty evaluation process of thermo-gravimetric analyzer (TGA) data was developed. The self calibration was performed using the standard mass and correction factor was obtained. The measurement model of oxidation was established, factors affected to uncertainty was analyzed, uncertainty of each factor using sensitivity coefficient was evaluated, combined uncertainty was calculated, and expanded uncertainty using coverage factor was calculated. It is believed that the uncertainty evaluation process of TGA data developed in this study will be helpful for increasing reliability and stability evaluation of nuclear fuel and spent fuel.

With the advancement of industrialization, modern industry had sophisticated technology, and manufacturers also demanded high-precision measurement accuracy. Improving the quality level by increasing the reliability of measurement results as well as accurate measurement is a key issue to increase the competitiveness of today's manufacturing industry. In general, measurement results depend on tolerances in the industrial field, and it may be difficult to guarantee the reliability of the data in the case of an industry that deals with precision parts. Currently, measurement uncertainty is mainly applied to the calibration and test fields of instruments. This study is aim to apply measurement uncertainty as a way to improve the accurate analysis and reliability of measurement results in the industrial field. For this, precision parts connected by shaft and hole were selected among geometric elements, and roundness and cylindricity were measured using a roundness measuring instrument and CMM. And, taking into account the environment in which these measurements were made, factors affecting the measurement results were derived, and a mathematical model was established to calculate the measurement uncertainty. Applying uncertainty in the field in this way is expected to improve the level of quality and accurate analysis of measurement results.

본 연구에서는 차량검지기의 속도측정 성능평가방법을 개발하였다. 개발된 성능평가방법에서는 오차요인들을 기준속도에 반영하며 측정불확도의 개념을 적용하였다. 기존연구, 통계적 처리기법, 기존교통단속장비 및 차량검지시스템의 속도측정 성능평가방법 등에 대한 고찰을 통해 기존평가방법의 문제점을 도출하고 개선된 성능평가방법을 개발하였다, 실제 현장에 설치된 차량검지기에 대해서 기존평가방법과 개발방법을 적용해본 결과 기존평가방법은 평가기준에 적합하나 개발방법은 평가기준을 만족시키지 못하고 있다. 이러한 결과는 기존성능평가방법이 측정 시의 오차요인들을 충분히 고려하지 못해서 평가대상장비의 성능을 고평가할 가능성이 있음을 의미하며, 반면에 개발모형은 측정 시의 변동요인인 오차를 고려하므로 기존평가방법 보다 정확함을 나타낸다.

후행 핵연료주기 경제성 평가는 추정 비용의 불확실성, 평가 대상기간의 장기성, 적용 할인율에 따른 계산결과의 변동성 등 많은 불확실성을 내포하고 있기 때문에 평가기관 또는 평가자에 따라 그 결과가 서로 상이하다. 본고에서는 지금까지 수행된 주요 경제성 평가 연구들을 조사/분석하여 그 특징과 한계를 알아봄으로써 현재 국내에서 추진되고 있는 사용후핵연료 공론화 및 후행 핵연료주기 정책 연구 추진에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있도록 하고자 하였다. 분석 결과 사용후핵연료 재활용 옵션에 비해 직접처분 옵션이 유리하나, 입력 자료로 사용된 파라미터 값에 따라 결과의 불확실성이 많이 나타나 이 부분에 대한 추가적인 연구가 필요하다는 사실을 알 수 있었다.

The paper presents a new approach for analyzing mold growth risk in buildings, based on a mixed simulation approach with consideration of uncertainties in relevant building parameters. The approach is capable to predict and explain unexpected mold growth occurrences that would typically not show up in standard deterministic simulation. This study simulates the local environmental conditions at material surfaces in buildings by using a mix of standard simulation tools. By introducing uncertainties in relevant input parameters, this approach generates a statistical distribution of time aggregated mold growth conditions at a number of "trouble spots"in a specific building case. This distribution is then translated into an overall mold risk indicator. In addition, our method identifies those parameters whose uncertainty range has a dominant effect on an increase in mold risk. By thus identifying the critical influence of building components, building operation and maintenance factors on the increase in risk, appropriate actions during the building design and procurement process can be set up to address these risks.

This paper is to propose model classification and evaluation of measurement uncertainty. In order to obtain type A and B uncertainty, variety of measurement mathematical models are illustrated by example. The four steps to evaluate expanded uncertainty are indicated as following; First, to get type A standard uncertainty, measurement mathematical models of single, double, multiple, design of experiment and serial autocorrelation are shown. Second, to solve type B standard uncertainty measurement mathematical models of empirical probability distributions and multivariate are presented. Third, type A and B combined uncertainty, considering sensitivity coefficient, linearity and correlation are discussed. Lastly, expanded uncertainty, considering degree of freedom for type A, B uncertainty and coverage factor are presented with uncertainty budget. SPC control chart to control expanded uncertainty is shown.

Uncertainty evaluation was performed for the measurement of Volatile Organic Compounds(VOC) in indoor air. The analytical procedure and result were validated by evaluating every uncertainty source related to the measurement method. An easy approach for uncertainty evaluation for indoor VOC measurement was tested using relative standard uncertainty method which is simple in the evaluation of a measurement uncertainty in case of indoor VOC measurement. The measurement uncertainties of toluene, ethylbenzene, m+p-xylene, styrene and o-xylene in indoor air are obtained as less than or close to 10%, and those results were validated by using Gum-workbench uncertainty evaluation program. Based on the evaluation, uncertainties were found to come largely from two major sources, uncertainty related to the concentration of standard Tenax tube which was used for calibration in measurement, and the to air sampling process. This study could be used as a good example in evaluating uncertainties in the measurement of indoor-air VOC at buildings including a newly-built apartment.

최근 기후변동성으로 유발되는 불안정한 기상상태를 효과적으로 관측하고자 레이더가 도입되고 있다. 레이더는 경험식으로 산정된 Z-R 관계식을 통하여 레이더 강우량을 제시하게 된다. 이 과정에서 레이더 강우량은 필연적으로 지상에 도달하는 실제 강우량과는 정량적 오차가 발생하게 된다. 본 연구는 확률통계학적 방법론을 이용하여 Z-R 관계식 매개변수 산정과정에서 우리나라의 강우특성을 고려함과 동시에 Z-R 관계식 매개변수의 불확실성을 정량적으로 제시하고자 한다. 강우의 계절성을 고려하여 Z-R 관계식 매개변수를 추정하는 과정에서 Bayesian 추론기법을 도입하여 생산된 레이더 강우량은 기존의 Z-R 관계식에 비하여 개선된 통계적 효율기준을 제시하였다. 따라서 Bayesian 추론기법을 활용한 Z-R 관계식 매개변수 산정은 정량적으로 신뢰성 있는 고해상도 강우정보의 생산은 고도화된 수문해석 및 기상예보 지원을 가능케 할 것으로 판단된다.

Release rate is one of the important items for the environmental impact assessment caused by radioactive materials in case of an accidental release from the nuclear facilities. In this study, the uncertainty of the estimated release rate is evaluated using Monte Carlo method. Gaussian plume model and linear programming are used for estimating the release rate of a source material. Tracer experiment is performed at the Yeoung-Kwang nuclear site to understand the dispersion characteristics. The optimized release rate was 1.56 times rather than the released source as a result of the linear programming to minimize the sum of square errors between the observed concentrations of the experiment and the calculated ones using Gaussian plume model. In the mean time, 95% confidence interval of the estimated release rate was from 1.41 to 2.53 times compared with the released rate as a result of the Monte Carlo simulation considering input variations of the Gaussian plume model. We confirm that this kind of the uncertainty evaluation for the source rate can support decision making appropriately in case of the radiological emergencies.