PURPOSES : Under the Traffic Safety Act, the installation and management of transportation facilities (facilities and attachments necessary for the operation of transportation, such as roads, railways, and terminals) must take necessary measures to ensure traffic safety, such as enhancing safety facilities. Recently, railway operators have graded the congestion level inside railway stations and vehicles, addressing safety and convenience issues arising from congestion and providing this information to users. However, for bus-related transportation facilities (such as bus stops, terminals, and transfer facilities), criteria and related research for assessing traffic congestion are lacking. Therefore, this study developed a model for the congestion risk factors of four bus-related transportation facilities and proposed criteria for classifying congestion risk levels. METHODS : This study involved selecting congestion risk influence variables for each traffic facility through field surveys, calculating congestion risk index values through evacuation and pedestrian simulations, and constructing a congestion risk influence model based on the ridge model. RESULTS : The factors influencing congestion were selected to include the number of people waiting, effective sidewalk width, and number of bus stops. As a result of developing congestion risk grades, the central bus stops were determined to be in a severe stage if the Average Waiting Time (AWT) was 2.7 or above. Roadside bus stops were considered severe at 4.2, underground metropolitan transit centers at 3.7, and bus terminals at 5.9 or above. CONCLUSIONS : This study can help establish a foundation for a safety management system for congested areas in transportation facilities. When the congestion risk prediction results correspond to cautionary or severe levels, measures that can reduce congestion risk must be applied to ensure the safety of road users.

본 논문에서는 확률론적 처리기법을 적용하여 플랜트 시설물의 폭발 재현주기에 따른 폭발 위험도를 분석하였다. HSE에서 제공하 는 누출 데이터, DNV에서 제시한 플랜트당 연간 누출 빈도, 다양한 연구진이 제시한 점화 확률을 고려하여 누출량에 따른 폭발 재현 주기를 산정하였다. 산정된 폭발 재현주기를 통해 폭발 위험도를 증기운의 부피 및 반경, 폭발하중에 대하여 평가하였다. 재현주기에 따른 증기운의 반경과 과거 실제 증기운 폭발 사례, 내폭설계 가이드라인을 비교 분석하여 설계폭발하중 모델을 위한 기준거리를 제 시하였다. 멀티에너지법을 통하여 폭발 재현주기에 따른 폭발하중의 범위를 분석하였으며, 설계폭발하중 모델의 기준이 되는 재현주 기를 제안하였다. 본 연구의 결과로 플랜트 시설물에 대한 성능기반 내폭설계의 간략한 표준안으로 활용이 가능하다.

of hazardous risk factors, risk estimation and determination steps by reflecting the trend of overseas risk assessment. METHODS : In deriving, estimating and determining risk factors, comparing the procedures presented by the ILO with the domestic guidline to find out the differences in procedural. and, According to the domestic manual, after setting the criteria for determining a deterministic perspective, analyze the risk assessment data of a specific domestic company and three overseas risk assessment research data to analyze the differences in methodology domestic and abroad. RESULTS : Within the country, there is a possibility that a deterministic view may be applied to all stages of procedure, and certain corporate data to the risk estimation and determination stage. In the case of overseas, the trend of applying deterministic perspectives to the risk determination stage was confirmed. CONCLUSIONS : Present the need for a standard model for improving deterministic methods in the other two stages, excluding risk determination in the domestic evaluation procedure.

Climate change and biological invasions are the greatest threats to biodiversity, agriculture, health and the global economy. Tomato leafminer(Tuta absoluta) (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is one of the most important threats to agriculture worldwide. This pest is characterized by rapid reproduction, strong dispersal ability, and highly overlapping of generations. Plants are damaged by direct feeding on leaves, stems, buds, calyces, young ripe fruits and by the invasion of secondary pathogens which enter through the wounds made by the pest. Since it invaded Spain in 2006, it has spread to Europe, the Mediterranean region, and, in 2010, to some countries in Central Asia and Southeast Asia. In East Asia, Tomato leafminer was first detected in China in Yili, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in 2017. There is a possibility that this pest will invade South Korea as well. This study provides this by the use of MaxEnt algorithm for modelling the potential geographical distribution of Tomato Leafminer in South Korea Using presence-only data.

본 연구는 머신러닝 기법을 토대로 15개 환경 변수를 활용하여 소나무재선충병의 위험지역 분포를 예측하였다. 연구는 최대 엔트로피 모델을 머신러닝 기법으로 활용하였고, 연구 지역은 경주이며 연구 기간은 2018∼2020년이다. 모델의 평가에는 AUC(area under the curve)를 이용하였다. 연구 지역에서 소나무재선충병의 감염목 핵심 분포 지역은 2018년 대비 2019년과 2020년에 각각 2.5배와 4.7배 확대되었다. 소나무재선충병의 감염목 분포 추정 모델의 AUC는 모든 해에 최소 0.86 이상이었다. 모델에서 가장 중요한 변수는 직전 해의 감염목 근접도 이었다. 지형과 도로와의 인접성, 목조건물 인접성, 5월 평균 기온도 중요한 변수이었다. 인간 활동과 매개충의 생장 환경이 소나무재선충병의 공간적 분포에 중요한 역할을 한다는 것을 의미한다. 나아가 연구의 결과는 감염목 분포 정보의 지속적인 구축과 공유가 소나무재선충병 예방을 위한 정책과 연구에 중요하다는 것을 시사한다.

In this study, dual drainage system based runoff model was established for W-drainage area in G-si, and considering the various rainfall characteristics determined using Huff and Mononobe methods, the degree of flooding in the target area was analyzed and the risk was compared and analyzed through the risk matrix method. As a result, the Monobe method compared to the Huff method was analyzed to be suitable analysis for flooding of recent heavy rain, and the validity of the dynamic risk assessment considering the weight of the occurrence probability as the return period was verified through the risk matrix-based analysis. However, since the definition and estimating criteria of the flood risk matrix proposed in this study are based on the return period for extreme rainfall and the depth of flooding according to the results of applying the dual drainage model, there is a limitation in that it is difficult to consider the main factors which are direct impact on inland flooding such as city maintenance and life protection functions. In the future, if various factors affecting inland flood damage are reflected in addition to the amount of flood damage, the flood risk matrix concept proposed in this study can be used as basic information for preparation and prevention of inland flooding, as well as it is judged that it can be considered as a major evaluation item in the selection of the priority management area for sewage maintenance for countermeasures against inland flooding.

In this study, dual drainage system based runoff model was established for W-drainage area in G-si, and considering the various rainfall characteristics determined using Huff and Mononobe methods, the degree of flooding in the target area was analyzed and the risk was compared and analyzed through the risk matrix method. As a result, the Monobe method compared to the Huff method was analyzed to be suitable analysis for flooding of recent heavy rain, and the validity of the dynamic risk assessment considering the weight of the occurrence probability as the return period was verified through the risk matrix-based analysis. However, since the definition and estimating criteria of the flood risk matrix proposed in this study are based on the return period for extreme rainfall and the depth of flooding according to the results of applying the dual drainage model, there is a limitation in that it is difficult to consider the main factors which are direct impact on inland flooding such as city maintenance and life protection functions. In the future, if various factors affecting inland flood damage are reflected in addition to the amount of flood damage, the flood risk matrix concept proposed in this study can be used as basic information for preparation and prevention of inland flooding, as well as it is judged that it can be considered as a major evaluation item in the selection of the priority management area for sewage maintenance for countermeasures against inland flooding.

본 연구는 충돌 사고 중에서 정박지에서 대기하고 있는 선박과 이 정박지를 통항하는 선박 간 충돌사고가 자주 발생함에 따라, 정박선 사이를 통항하는 선박의 충돌위험을 예측할 수 있는 모델을 개발하기 위한 기초 연구로 통항 선박의 안전 영역을 도출하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해 우리나라 최대 항만인 부산항 남외항 정박지를 대상 해역으로 선정하고 정박선이 가장 많이 대기한 기간 VTS(Vessel Traffic Service) 항적 자료를 추출하여 분석하였다. 정박선 사이를 통항하는 선박의 길이(L)를 기준으로 정박선과 어느 정도의 안전한 거리 (D)를 두고 통과하는지를 알기 위하여 통항 선박의 방위별 D/L 비를 구하였다. D/L 비 분포의 평균 domain을 기준으로 기존 선박 domain 범위 안으로 정박선이 존재할 비율을 분석하여 VTS 관제사의 위험 정도를 반영한 domain을 도출하였다. 추후 연구로는 정박선 사이의 최소 안전거리인 Domain-watch와 정박지 통항 선박의 안전 domain을 활용한 정박지 통항 선박의 충돌위험도 평가 및 분석을 하고, 이를 통해 VTS가 정박지를 좀 더 효율적이고 안전하게 관리하기 위한 모델을 개발하고자 한다.

Background: Scapular winging (SW) could be caused by tightness or weakness of the periscapular muscles. Although data mining techniques are useful in classifying or predicting risk of musculoskeletal disorder, predictive models for risk of musculoskeletal disorder using the results of clinical test or quantitative data are scarce. Objects: This study aimed to (1) investigate the difference between young women with and without SW, (2) establish a predictive model for presence of SW, and (3) determine the cutoff value of each variable for predicting the risk of SW using the decision tree method. Methods: Fifty young female subjects participated in this study. To classify the presence of SW as the outcome variable, scapular protractor strength, elbow flexor strength, shoulder internal rotation, and whether the scapula is in the dominant or nondominant side were determined. Results: The classification tree selected scapular protractor strength, shoulder internal rotation range of motion, and whether the scapula is in the dominant or nondominant side as predictor variables. The classification tree model correctly classified 78.79% (p = 0.02) of the training data set. The accuracy obtained by the classification tree on the test data set was 82.35% (p = 0.04). Conclusion: The classification tree showed acceptable accuracy (82.35%) and high specificity (95.65%) but low sensitivity (54.55%). Based on the predictive model in this study, we suggested that 20% of body weight in scapular protractor strength is a meaningful cutoff value for presence of SW.

In order to deal with high uncertainty and variability in emergency medical centers, many researchers have developed various models for their operational planning and scheduling. However, most of the models just provide static plans without any risk measures as their results, and thus the users often lose the opportunity to analyze how much risk the patients have, whether the plan is still implementable or how the plan should be changed when an unexpected event happens. In this study, we construct a simulation model combined with a risk-based planning and scheduling module designed by Simio LLC. In addition to static schedules, it provides possibility of treatment delay for each patient as a risk measure, and updates the schedule to avoid the risk when it is needed. By using the simulation model, the users can experiment various scenarios in operations quickly, and also can make a decision not based on their past experience or intuition but based on scientific estimation of risks even in urgent situations. An example of such an operational decision making process is demonstrated for a real mid-size emergency medical center located in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The model is designed for temporal short-term planning especially, but it can be expanded for long-term planning also with some appropriate adjustments.

PURPOSES: This study aims to contribute to a better road environment, which can result in accident reduction from two-wheeled vehicles, by analyzing factors affecting the two-wheeled vehicles’ accident severities in Incheon Metropolitan City. METHODS: In this study, the two-wheeled vehicles’ accident severity was classified into four categories (fatal injury, serious injury, minor injury, and injury report) as a dependent variable, and 97 independent variables out of 14 categories were considered to construct an ordered probit model. To determine the factors affecting accident severity, the statistical package LIMDEP was used. RESULTS: Among the variables used in the analysis, variables related to accident occurrence date (first quarter), region (8-district), accident type (passing the edge of the road of the vehicle for a pedestrian accident, fixed object collision, and overturn of vehicle-only accident), violation type (unobtained safety distance, failure to perform safe driving, violation of intersection driving, and violation of others), the type of road (at the intersection, near the intersection, at the crosswalk, near the crosswalk, etc.), gender of assailant (male), vehicle of victim (pedestrian and motorcycle), and age of victim (under 20) were found to have a statistically significant effect on the severity of the accident. CONCLUSIONS: The variables related to accident type (fixed object collision and overturn of vehicle-only accident), gender of assailant (male), and vehicle of victim (pedestrian and motorcycle) have turned out increasing the accident severity. In addition, accident occurrence for two-wheeled vehicles is more diverse and vulnerable to damage than automobile accidents. Therefore, it is time to recognize the seriousness of two-wheeled vehicle accidents and to improve the environment and systems for safe driving.

PURPOSES: The objective of this study is to evaluate road subsidence based on model chamber tests. METHODS : A theoretical review of road subsidence mechanisms was carried out, and a series of soil chamber tests with initial cavities were conducted under various conditions. Road subsidence risk was analyzed based on these results. RESULTS: The cavity collapse risk was affected by multiple factors, including cavity location, traffic loading, and asphalt layer thickness. The Nf number of loading required to reach cavity collapse increased as the cavity width increased, cavity depth decreased, and asphalt layer thickness increased. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of asphalt thickness on the risk of road subsidence was assessed to have an additional 1.5-fold effect on the subgrade thickness. This study proposed an effective cavity depth (Deff), considering the strength of the asphalt layer. Based on the results of the model chamber test, a four-class road subsidence risk model was proposed with effective cavity depths and widths. It was found that the risk of road subsidence increased as the cavity width increased and the effective cavity depth decreased. This trend is also well matched to the road subsidence risk models of Japan and Seoul.

이 연구는 운항자가 항해 중 위험을 느끼는 고정 및 이동 물표에 대한 해상교통위험성평가에 대한 것이다. 이를 위해 선박 길이와 속력, 선박조종성능이 고려된 동적선박영역을 기초로 한 충돌위험평가식을 구하였다. 특히, 동적선박영역과 충돌위험평가식을 하이브리드 결합하여 자선의 크기, 속력 등의 영향을 정량적으로 지표화한 항해위험성평가모델을 검토 및 개선하고자 한 것이다. 기존 항해위험성평가 모델에 적용이 부족한 속장비(speed length ratio) 즉, 선박의 길이와 속력에 대한 비가 고려된 새로운 형태의 해상교통위험성평가 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 그 결과 무차원 속력 즉, 속장비가 클수록 CJ 값이 크며, CJ 값은 속장비에 의해 잘 표현되고 있다. 또한, 속장비가 크면 속장비가 작은 경우보다, 보다 먼 거리에서부터 [주의], [경계], [위험] 또는 [매우위험]상태에 도달한다. 이 연구의 결과는 위험항로 회피 또는 최적항로 구축, 방파제폭이나 교량경간 등을 포함한 항로나 항만개발, 연안항해용 안전해도 개발 및 향후 자율운항선박과 같은 스마트선박의 운항 중 충돌방지와 최적항로 선정에 자료로 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

Abstract It has come to attention that a risk-assessing organization, that will benchmark a company’s safety department, is imperative, following an increase in large-scale SOC-business project, construction of higher-raised buildings, development of underground space; all that have increase accident rates. Having faced problems that arise in firms that demand diversity, complexity and instantaneity, the purpose of the thesis is to arrive at efficient and practical problem-solving means. In order to solve the problems that would surface theoretically during an actual risk assessment, the state of the operation systems of the top five national construction firms having a hazard rate of 0.25 times less than the average rate have been analyzed, while a hierarchal recognition research of the employees who not only function at the operating level but are the practice subjects of a firm, has also been conducted, bringing the main text.

Through an integration of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) and rice pest epidemiological models, a potential risk forrice pest epidemics can be predicted even before a cropping season starts. The objective of the study was to developand evaluate an epidemiological “rtdSim” model for tungro, a vector-born rice disease, aiming at predicting a seasonaltungro risk in the Bicol Region of the Philippines. Predicting tungro epidemics requires many components explaining thecomplex nature of the three-cornered pathosystems (virus, vector, and host) and their interactions with environmental variables.The rtdSim model successfully calculated number of rice hills infected with the rice tungro virus through its vector, thegreen leafhopper (GLH). The present study highlights the potential for developing a climate-based early warning systemfor rice pests, thus allowing better decision-making on a seasonal level.