This study examines the risks posed by the on-site reactivity of hazardous chemicals, focusing on high-risk accident scenarios and response system improvements. Using cases like TATP and VX, it analyzes the accessibility and combination potential of precursor chemicals that are not inherently hazardous but can become highly dangerous under specific conditions. Scenario-based qualitative risk assessments reveal critical gaps in South Korea’s current safety management, including insufficient anticipatory regulations, limited detection capabilities for reactively synthesized agents, and fragmented inter-agency coordination. The study highlights the need for a proactive, integrated approach incorporating real-time precursor tracking, advanced detection technologies, and joint scenario-based response training. By shifting from static substance control to risk-based preparedness, this research offers strategic recommendations for enhancing chemical accident prevention and response in complex facility environments.

This study investigates the role of Junam Reservoir and its surrounding paddy fields as a habitat for migratory birds by considering how different scenarios of habitat loss may affect their populations. It will focus on wintering Anatidae species and take advantage of the population data available for Junam Reservoir and adjacent agricultural fields to analyze habitat-use and dependency patterns. A Bayesian regression model was fitted to estimate the relative dependency at each reservoir and paddy field for each bird species. Network analysis was used to assess the interaction structure and connectivity between habitats and bird species. Furthermore, habitat loss scenarios were simulated in order to predict the outcome of reservoir-paddy field loss on the populations of birds. Among these species, the reservoir loss was much more critical for those highly dependent on reservoirs, such as bean goose, Anser fabalis, and Whooper swan, Cygnus cygnus, but the loss of paddy fields became much more vital for those with higher dependence on paddy fields, such as Baikal teal, Anas formosa. Species that depended on both types of habitats, such as the white-naped crane (Antigone vipio) and the hooded crane (Grus monacha), had additive impacts and suffered the most significant population decline when both reservoirs and paddy fields were lost simultaneously. Network analysis demonstrated that both reservoirs and paddy played equally critical roles in the central nodes of the migratory bird species habitat network and acted as important connectors along migration routes. It is exemplary of the need to develop landscape-level means of maintaining migratory birds and ecosystem stability through the incorporation of ecological connectivity between paddy fields and reservoirs and vice-versa. This stresses integrated management relevant for the entire habitat network rather than single-site focused management, a call for multifaceted conservation efforts, securing of alternative habitats, and restoration of degraded habitats.

Climate change significantly impacts biodiversity, particularly for endemic species in restricted habitats. This study focuses on the Korean fir (Abies koreana), an alpine conifer species in South Korea, to evaluate potential habitat changes under SSP climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5- 8.5). Using high-resolution ensemble climate data from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and integrating 10 species distribution models (SDMs) into an ensemble model, we predicted habitat suitability for the period 2010~2090. The species data was refined and constructed with a focus on location data so that it could be used in this model, using the National Ecosystem Survey, Baekdudaegan Conservation Area Survey of the National Institute of Ecology, and the National Park Natural Resources DB of National Park Service. The results identified BIO1 (mean annual temperature) and BIO13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month) as the most influential bioclimatic variables for habitat suitability. SSP1-2.6 exhibited fluctuating habitat area with partial recovery by 2070s, while SSP5-8.5 projected a near-complete loss of suitable habitats by 2090s. The ensemble model demonstrated robust performance, providing reliable predictions across all scenarios. This study highlights the substantial impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Abies koreana and underscores the importance of understanding these changes to preserve vulnerable alpine ecosystems.

국내 최대 간척지인 새만금 방조제 내부에는 간척토지 28,300ha가 조성되어 있으며 이 중 30% 용지를 농업용지로 활용하는 계획이 수립되었다. 농업용지의 토지이용 계획이 당초 수도작 운영계획에서 전작 위주 토지이용 계획으로 변경되면서 논과 밭은 영농 및 용수체계가 다르므로 이에 대한 용수체계 및 유입 부하량 변화에 연구가 필요한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 전작화에 따라 새만금 농업용지 특성에 부합하는 작부체계를 고려하여 수도작 대비 오염부하 배출량을 비교·분석하고자 하였다. 새만금 농생명용지 토지이용계획 및 이에 따른 작부·용수체계를 반영하기 위해 농업용지의 특성에 부합하는 합리적인 작부시나리오를 제안하였으며 이를 적용하여 최신 구축된 HSPF 모델링시스템을 적용하여 평가하였다. 주요 결과로는 전작운영 여건을 고려하여 새만금 지역의 기상조건에 적합한 작부체계 시나리오를 고안하여 채소작물, 사료작물, 식량작물로 구성된 이모작 작부체계 를 제안하였다. 또한, 제안된 작부체계를 반영하여 새만금 농생명 용지 전작화에 따른 수도작 대비 오염부하 배출량을 비교한 결과 BOD와 TN 농도는 증가하지만 배출부하량은 감소하고, TP의 경우 농도와 부하량 모두 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 새만금 농생명용지 토지이용 구상에 따른 오염부하량 산정을 통한 새만금호 수질환경문제와 경제성을 고려한 합리적이고 지속가능한 토지이용계획을 수립할 수 있으며, 새만금호 수질보전을 위한 유역관리대책의 정밀한 평가 보완필요성 검토를 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

In order to solve the rapidly increasing domestic delivery volume and various problems in the recent metropolitan area, domestic researchers are conducting research on the development of “Urban Logistics System Using Underground Space” using existing urban railway facilities in the city. Safety analysis and scenario analysis should be performed for the safe system design of the new concept logistics system, but the scenario analysis techniques performed in previous studies so far do not have standards and are defined differently depending on the domain, subject, or purpose. In addition, it is necessary to improve the difficulty of clearly defining the control structure and the omission of UCA in the existing STPA safety analysis. In this study, an improved scenario table is proposed for the AGV horizontal transport device, which is a key equipment of an urban logistics system using underground space, and a process model is proposed by linking systematic STPA safety analysis and scenario analysis, and UCA and Control Structure Guidelines are provided to create a safety analysis.

Social welfare facilities are used by a wide range of local residents, including vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and people with disabilities. During emergencies like fires, confusion can arise as these individuals try to evacuate. Evacuation simulation results have shown that utilizing evacuation systems based on specific evacuation scenarios can significantly decrease the time required for evacuation compared to general evacuation procedures. By anticipating potential fires based on changes in social and facility environments, appropriate evacuation scenarios can be developed and applied to evacuation systems, thus contributing to the safety and security of individuals during emergencies. In conclusion, for social welfare facilities that serve a large number of people, it is necessary to expand the focus on performance-based design depending on the size of the facility, and to continuously develop and train for appropriate evacuation scenarios that align with changing facility environments.

Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year (2000-2019), near future (2041-2060), and distant future (2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future (2081- 2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

This study was carried out to compare the DMY (dry matter yield) of IRG (Italian ryegrass) in the southern coastal regions of Korea due to seasonal climate scenarios such as the Kaul-Changma (late monsoon) in autumn, extreme winter cold, and drought in the next spring. The IRG data (n = 203) were collected from various Reports for Collaborative Research Program to Develop New Cultivars of Summer Crops in Jeju, 203 Namwon, and Yeungam from the Rural Development Administration (1993 – 2013). In order to define the seasonal climate scenarios, climate variables including temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine were used by collected from the Korean Meteorological Administration. The discriminant analysis based on 5% significance level was performed to distinguish normal and abnormal climate scenarios. Furthermore, the DMY comparison was simulated based on the information of sample distribution of IRG. As a result, in the southern coastal regions, only the impact of next spring drought on DMY of IRG was critical. Although the severe winter cold was clearly classified from the normal, there was no difference in DMY. Thus, the DMY comparison was simulated only for the next spring drought. Under the yield comparison simulation, DMY (kg/ha) in the normal and drought was 14,743.83 and 12,707.97 respectively. It implies that the expected damage caused by the spring drought was about 2,000 kg/ha. Furthermore, the predicted DMY of spring drought was wider and slower than that of normal, indicating on high variability. This study is meaningful in confirming the predictive DMY damage and its possibility by spring drought for IRG via statistical simulation considering seasonal climate scenarios.

Global warming has a major impact on the Earth’s precipitation and temperature fluctuations, and significantly affects the habitats and biodiversity of many species. Although the number of alien plants newly introduced in South Korea has recently increased due to the increasing frequency of international exchanges and climate change, studies on how climate change affects the distribution of these alien plants are lacking. This study predicts changes in the distribution of suitable habitats according to RCPs climate change scenarios using the current distribution of the invasive alien plant Conyza sumatrensis and bioclimatic variables. C. sumatrensis has a limited distribution in the southern part of South Korea. Isothermality (bio03), the max temperature of the warmest month (bio05), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio09) were found to influence the distribution of C. sumatrensis. In the future, the suitable habitat for C. sumatrensis is projected to increase under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Changes in the distribution of alien plants can have a significant impact on the survival of native plants and cause ecosystem disturbance. Therefore, studies on changing distribution of invasive species according to climate change scenarios can provide useful information required to plan conservation strategies and restoration plans for various ecosystems.

The ROK Army must detect the enemy’s location and the type of artillery weapon to respond effectively at wartime. This paper proposes a radar positioning model by applying a scenario-based robust optimization method i.e., binary integer programming. The model consists of the different types of radar, its available quantity and specification. Input data is a combination of target, weapon types and enemy position in enemy’s attack scenarios. In this scenario, as the components increase by one unit, the total number increases exponentially, making it difficult to use all scenarios. Therefore, we use partial scenarios to see if they produce results similar to those of the total scenario, and then apply them to case studies. The goal of this model is to deploy an artillery locating radar that maximizes the detection probability at a given candidate site, based on the probability of all possible attack scenarios at an expected enemy artillery position. The results of various experiments including real case study show the appropriateness and practicality of our proposed model. In addition, the validity of the model is reviewed by comparing the case study results with the detection rate of the currently available radar deployment positions of Corps. We are looking forward to enhance Korea Artillery force combat capability through our research.

본 연구에서는 LNG 추진선에서 배관의 파손으로 천연가스가 누출되었을 때 누출공의 크기별 플래시 화재, 과압, 복사열에 따 른 피해범위를 ALOHA(Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres)를 이용하여 산출했다. 그리고 민감도 분석을 위해 환경 변수(풍속, 대기온 도, 대기 안정도)와 공정 변수(배관 압력, 배관 길이)로 구분하여 다양한 시나리오별 피해영향범위를 분석했다. 그 결과 환경 변수에 따른 피해범위는 플래시 화재에 의한 피해범위가 가장 컸으며 다음으로 과압, 복사열 순서로 큰 피해범위를 나타냈다. 그리고 공정 변수에 따른 피해범위를 산출한 결과 배관의 압력과 길이, 누출공의 크기와 관계없이 플래시 화재에 의한 피해범위가 가장 컸으며, 환경 변수와 동일하게 과압, 복사열 순서로 높은 피해범위를 보였다. 또한 누출공의 크기가 클수록 환경 변수와 공정 변수가 피해범위에 큰 영향을 주었으며 제트 환재에 의한 피해범위는 환경 변수에 비해 공정 변수에 의한 피해범위가 더 큰 것을 알 수 있었다.