본 연구는 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 식중독 발생 을 예측하여 국민 인식 개선 및 관련 정책 수립을 위한 기초자료를 제공하고자 수행되었다. 2003년부터 2022년까 지의 기상청 기후자료(평균기온, 강수량, 상대습도)와 식 품의약품안전처의 식중독 통계(5종 병원균 발생 건수)를 수집하였다. 기후 요인이 식중독 발생에 미치는 영향을 분 석하기 위해 로그-정규 회귀모형을 사용하였으며, 이를 바 탕으로 2023년부터 2100년까지의 공통사회 경제경로(SSP) 시나리오(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5)에 따른 미래 식중 독 발생을 예측하였다. 분석 결과, 평균기온이 1oC 상승할 경우 Pathogenic E. coli, Samonella spp., C. jejuni 발생 건 수는 각각 6%, 4%, 3% 증가하였으나, Norovirus는 3% 감 소하였다. SSP5-8.5 시나리오에 따르면, 2092년 Pathogenic E. coli 발생 건수는 현재보다 2배 이상 증가하고 살모넬 라 발생 건수도 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 반면, Norovirus 발생 건수는 모든 시나리오에서 감소하였으며, 특히 SSP5- 8.5에서 가장 큰 감소 폭을 보였다. 이러한 결과는 기후변 화로 인한 기온 상승이 세균성 식중독의 위험을 크게 증 가시킬 수 있음을 시사한다. 따라서 공중 보건을 위해 기 후변화 완화 노력과 식품 위생 관리 강화가 필수적이다.

본 연구는 SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 유역수문수질모형을 활용하여 기후변화가 낙동강 유역의 물환경에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. Python 기반 자동화 절차를 적용하여 입력 자료 정리, 모형 실행, 시각화를 수행하였고, K-means 군집화 기법을 적용하여 195개 소유역을 대표 군집으로 보정함으로써 대규모 유역 모의의 효율성을 높였다. 또한, 유량 및 수질 항목 (TN, TP, SS)에 대한 검정, 보정을 통해 모형의 신뢰성을 확보하였다. SS와 TN는 NSE 0.55∼0.72, PBIAS는 ±25% 이내로 양호한 성능을 보였으나, TP는 홍수기의 고농도 구간에서 과대 모의되는 경향을 보였다. 보정된 모형으로 IPCC AR6 기반 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 기후변화 시나리오 CCLM SSP2-4.5, GRIMs SSP5-8.5를 적용하여 근미래(2021–2040년), 중미래(2041–2060년), 원미래 (2081–2100년)의 수질 변화를 분석하였다. SSP2-4.5에서는 변화율이 크지 않았으나 SSP5-8.5에서는 SS과 TN가 원미래에 각각 평균 약 23%, 40% 증가하였으며, TP는 두 시나리오에서 –20%∼–60% 수준의 감소가 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 기후변화가 장기적으로 낙동강 유역의 수질 악화를 초래할 가능성이 있음을 시사한다. 따라서 향후 비점오염원 저감, 저수지 운영, 통합 유역 관리 등과 같은 적응형 수질 관리 대책 수립이 필요하며, 본 연구는 이러한 대규모 유역의 기후변화 대응 수질 관리 전략 마련을 위한 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

This study examines the risks posed by the on-site reactivity of hazardous chemicals, focusing on high-risk accident scenarios and response system improvements. Using cases like TATP and VX, it analyzes the accessibility and combination potential of precursor chemicals that are not inherently hazardous but can become highly dangerous under specific conditions. Scenario-based qualitative risk assessments reveal critical gaps in South Korea’s current safety management, including insufficient anticipatory regulations, limited detection capabilities for reactively synthesized agents, and fragmented inter-agency coordination. The study highlights the need for a proactive, integrated approach incorporating real-time precursor tracking, advanced detection technologies, and joint scenario-based response training. By shifting from static substance control to risk-based preparedness, this research offers strategic recommendations for enhancing chemical accident prevention and response in complex facility environments.

This study investigates the role of Junam Reservoir and its surrounding paddy fields as a habitat for migratory birds by considering how different scenarios of habitat loss may affect their populations. It will focus on wintering Anatidae species and take advantage of the population data available for Junam Reservoir and adjacent agricultural fields to analyze habitat-use and dependency patterns. A Bayesian regression model was fitted to estimate the relative dependency at each reservoir and paddy field for each bird species. Network analysis was used to assess the interaction structure and connectivity between habitats and bird species. Furthermore, habitat loss scenarios were simulated in order to predict the outcome of reservoir-paddy field loss on the populations of birds. Among these species, the reservoir loss was much more critical for those highly dependent on reservoirs, such as bean goose, Anser fabalis, and Whooper swan, Cygnus cygnus, but the loss of paddy fields became much more vital for those with higher dependence on paddy fields, such as Baikal teal, Anas formosa. Species that depended on both types of habitats, such as the white-naped crane (Antigone vipio) and the hooded crane (Grus monacha), had additive impacts and suffered the most significant population decline when both reservoirs and paddy fields were lost simultaneously. Network analysis demonstrated that both reservoirs and paddy played equally critical roles in the central nodes of the migratory bird species habitat network and acted as important connectors along migration routes. It is exemplary of the need to develop landscape-level means of maintaining migratory birds and ecosystem stability through the incorporation of ecological connectivity between paddy fields and reservoirs and vice-versa. This stresses integrated management relevant for the entire habitat network rather than single-site focused management, a call for multifaceted conservation efforts, securing of alternative habitats, and restoration of degraded habitats.

Climate change significantly impacts biodiversity, particularly for endemic species in restricted habitats. This study focuses on the Korean fir (Abies koreana), an alpine conifer species in South Korea, to evaluate potential habitat changes under SSP climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5- 8.5). Using high-resolution ensemble climate data from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and integrating 10 species distribution models (SDMs) into an ensemble model, we predicted habitat suitability for the period 2010~2090. The species data was refined and constructed with a focus on location data so that it could be used in this model, using the National Ecosystem Survey, Baekdudaegan Conservation Area Survey of the National Institute of Ecology, and the National Park Natural Resources DB of National Park Service. The results identified BIO1 (mean annual temperature) and BIO13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month) as the most influential bioclimatic variables for habitat suitability. SSP1-2.6 exhibited fluctuating habitat area with partial recovery by 2070s, while SSP5-8.5 projected a near-complete loss of suitable habitats by 2090s. The ensemble model demonstrated robust performance, providing reliable predictions across all scenarios. This study highlights the substantial impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Abies koreana and underscores the importance of understanding these changes to preserve vulnerable alpine ecosystems.

국내 최대 간척지인 새만금 방조제 내부에는 간척토지 28,300ha가 조성되어 있으며 이 중 30% 용지를 농업용지로 활용하는 계획이 수립되었다. 농업용지의 토지이용 계획이 당초 수도작 운영계획에서 전작 위주 토지이용 계획으로 변경되면서 논과 밭은 영농 및 용수체계가 다르므로 이에 대한 용수체계 및 유입 부하량 변화에 연구가 필요한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 전작화에 따라 새만금 농업용지 특성에 부합하는 작부체계를 고려하여 수도작 대비 오염부하 배출량을 비교·분석하고자 하였다. 새만금 농생명용지 토지이용계획 및 이에 따른 작부·용수체계를 반영하기 위해 농업용지의 특성에 부합하는 합리적인 작부시나리오를 제안하였으며 이를 적용하여 최신 구축된 HSPF 모델링시스템을 적용하여 평가하였다. 주요 결과로는 전작운영 여건을 고려하여 새만금 지역의 기상조건에 적합한 작부체계 시나리오를 고안하여 채소작물, 사료작물, 식량작물로 구성된 이모작 작부체계 를 제안하였다. 또한, 제안된 작부체계를 반영하여 새만금 농생명 용지 전작화에 따른 수도작 대비 오염부하 배출량을 비교한 결과 BOD와 TN 농도는 증가하지만 배출부하량은 감소하고, TP의 경우 농도와 부하량 모두 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 새만금 농생명용지 토지이용 구상에 따른 오염부하량 산정을 통한 새만금호 수질환경문제와 경제성을 고려한 합리적이고 지속가능한 토지이용계획을 수립할 수 있으며, 새만금호 수질보전을 위한 유역관리대책의 정밀한 평가 보완필요성 검토를 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

In order to solve the rapidly increasing domestic delivery volume and various problems in the recent metropolitan area, domestic researchers are conducting research on the development of “Urban Logistics System Using Underground Space” using existing urban railway facilities in the city. Safety analysis and scenario analysis should be performed for the safe system design of the new concept logistics system, but the scenario analysis techniques performed in previous studies so far do not have standards and are defined differently depending on the domain, subject, or purpose. In addition, it is necessary to improve the difficulty of clearly defining the control structure and the omission of UCA in the existing STPA safety analysis. In this study, an improved scenario table is proposed for the AGV horizontal transport device, which is a key equipment of an urban logistics system using underground space, and a process model is proposed by linking systematic STPA safety analysis and scenario analysis, and UCA and Control Structure Guidelines are provided to create a safety analysis.

Social welfare facilities are used by a wide range of local residents, including vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and people with disabilities. During emergencies like fires, confusion can arise as these individuals try to evacuate. Evacuation simulation results have shown that utilizing evacuation systems based on specific evacuation scenarios can significantly decrease the time required for evacuation compared to general evacuation procedures. By anticipating potential fires based on changes in social and facility environments, appropriate evacuation scenarios can be developed and applied to evacuation systems, thus contributing to the safety and security of individuals during emergencies. In conclusion, for social welfare facilities that serve a large number of people, it is necessary to expand the focus on performance-based design depending on the size of the facility, and to continuously develop and train for appropriate evacuation scenarios that align with changing facility environments.

Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year (2000-2019), near future (2041-2060), and distant future (2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future (2081- 2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

Global warming has a major impact on the Earth’s precipitation and temperature fluctuations, and significantly affects the habitats and biodiversity of many species. Although the number of alien plants newly introduced in South Korea has recently increased due to the increasing frequency of international exchanges and climate change, studies on how climate change affects the distribution of these alien plants are lacking. This study predicts changes in the distribution of suitable habitats according to RCPs climate change scenarios using the current distribution of the invasive alien plant Conyza sumatrensis and bioclimatic variables. C. sumatrensis has a limited distribution in the southern part of South Korea. Isothermality (bio03), the max temperature of the warmest month (bio05), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio09) were found to influence the distribution of C. sumatrensis. In the future, the suitable habitat for C. sumatrensis is projected to increase under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Changes in the distribution of alien plants can have a significant impact on the survival of native plants and cause ecosystem disturbance. Therefore, studies on changing distribution of invasive species according to climate change scenarios can provide useful information required to plan conservation strategies and restoration plans for various ecosystems.