본 연구에서는 IPCC가 발간한 AR5 의 시나리오 중 임의로 선택된 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오가 용담댐 유역과 호내의 유량과 수질변화에 미치는 영향을 분석 및 그 방법론을 수립하기 위해서 SWAT 모델과 CE-QUAL-W2 모델을 차례로 사용하였다. 기후변화 시나리오는 용담댐 유역에 대해 상세화 된 자료 를 사용하였으며 2016~2095년의 기간을 2016~2035년, 2036~2065년 그리고 2066~2095년의 세 가지의 기간으로 구분하고 또한 각 연도별로 5월과 10 월 사이의 우기(Wet Season)와 11월과 4월 사이의 건기(Dry Season)로 또한 구분하여 분석하였다. 전체 모의 기간에 대해 산술평균한 용담댐 유역의 유량과 TSS 및 TP는 RCP 4.5가 RCP 8.5 보다 큰 것으로 나타나고 TN의 경우 다른 경향을 나타내었다. 반면, 모델의 예측결과를 기간별 또는 연중 강우특성별로 구별하여 분석한 경우에는 각 경우마다 서로 다른 결과를 나타내고 있다. 기후변화 시나리오가 진행됨에 따라 전반적으로 강우일수는 감소하고 강우강도는 증가하여 갈수기에는 오염물질의 유출이 감소하고, 홍수기에는 오염물질의 유출이 증가하여 연간 오염물질 유출량이 홍수기에 집중되는 특성을 나타내었다. 상기와 동일 한 기간에 대해 SWAT 모델에서 생성된 유역의 자료를 CE-QUAL-W2 모델의 경계조건으로 사용하여 용담댐의 수질변화특성을 모의하였다. TSS와 TP농도는 하절기 강우량의 증가에 따라 특히, 높은 값을 나타내는 것으로 분석되었으나, 고형물질에 잘 흡착되지 않는 TN은 다른 경향이 나타났다. 따라서 기후변화에 의한 장래의 유량 및 수질 변화는 전반적인 경향과 더불어 지역적, 시기적 특성을 또한 반영하여 분석하는 것이 바람직하다고 판단되며 이에 따라 갈수 및 홍수에 의한 시기별, 지역별 유량 및 수질 관리 대책이 별도로 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

The purpose of this study is to quantify the magnitudes of projected 21st century temperature changes and shifting climate zones over Mt. Halla, Korea based on high-resolution (1km×1km) climate change scenario data sets down-scaled from a global climate model (HadGEM2-AO) simulations using PRIDE (PRISM based Downscaling Estimation Model) as well as the simulations of a Regional Climate Model (RCM; HadGEM3-RA). The high resolution climate data demonstrate that the magnitudes of increases in coldest and warmest monthly mean temperatures over Mt. Halla will exceed those of the averages across the Korean Peninsula during the 21st century, leading to the shifts of climate zones. The isoline with 5°C (20°C) of the coldest (warmest) monthly average temperature associated with sub-tropical (sub-alpine) climate zones will migrate from 100~230m (950~1,300m) to 300~500m (1,300~1,600m) of altitude in the late 21st century (2071~2100) under the RCP 4.5 scenario. These changes are expected to be more obviously observed in the south flank of Mt. Halla as well as under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These results indicate that changes in climate zones will lead to the extinction of sub-alpine ecosystems over Mt. Halla due to increases of summertime heat stress as well as to the expansion of the sub-tropical forest zone toward mid-mountain regions due to reduction of wintertime stress in the warmer 21st century.

In this study, hydrological safety vulnerability assessment on dam facilities was estimated using dams' hydrological safety evaluation result and in-depth inspection assessment result and considering climate change scenario. Hydrological safety assessment of the existing dam was performed by calculating the pmp/pmf using the climate change scenario. Using the results, Multi-Criteria Decision Making was used for vulnerability ranking decision on dams, and assessment scores and weights of hydrological safety evaluation considering climate chage were applied as payoff matrix and weight coefficient. In this study, it was evaluated vulnerability ranking that hydrological safety evaluation of existing dam considering climate change.

The purpose of this study is to establish common indicators that constitute a "low-carbon green city" and determine their priorities from the perspective of Incheon Metropolitan City with a view to help develop its climate change strategy strategic city. Several major cities, domestic and overseas, were benchmarked to come up with preliminary indicators consisting of six areas, twenty two planning factors, and 74 indicators. In order to evaluate the validity and relevance of preliminary indicators, expert FGI (Focus Group Interview) was conducted that changed the numbers of final indicators to six areas, twenty two planning factors, and 82 indicators. Finally, AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) was conducted to assign relative importance (i.e. weights) to each indicator. Through the layering process of AHP, the upper category of "field" and lower category of "planning factors" were set up as policy prerequisites for constructing a low-carbon green city (6 fields, 22 planning factors). The AHP results for the first level (fields), green city space was ranked first, followed by energy and resource circulation, green traffic, ecological preservation, green logistics, and governance. Among all planning factors, land use, energy efficiency, traffic system improvement, location planning, securing of ecological area, efficiency of logistics, and cooperative organization showed the highest priorities.

Recently IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change, 2007) pointed out that global warming is a certain ongoing process on the earth, due to which water resources management is becoming one of the most difficult tasks with the frequent occurrences of extreme floods and droughts. In this study we made runoff predictions for several control points in the Geum River by using the watershed runoff model, SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation Model), with daily RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 100 year from 1st Jan 2006 to 31st Dec 2100 at the resolution of 1 km given by Climate Change Information Center. As a result of, the Geum River Basin is predicted to be a constant flow increases, and it showed a variation in the water circulation system. Thus, it was found that the different seasonality occurred.

We conducted a total of 28 surveys from March to October 2016 in Gayasan National Park, to identify threatened plants for climate change, as well as for the effective management of biological organisms and resources against climate changes in Korea. Regarding threatened plants for climate change, we identified a total of 39 taxa, with 11 northern, 2 southern, and 26 taxa of concern. Among these taxa, 33 were identified as wild species. The species threatened by climate change located in the subalpine regions of Gayasan National Park were Abies holophylla Maxim., Abies koreana Wilson, Pinus koraiensis Siebold & Zucc., Betula ermanii Cham., Berberis amurensis Rupr., Rhododendron tschonoskii Maxim., Vaccinium hirtum var. koreanum (Nakai) Kitam., Primula modesta var. hannasanensis T.Yamaz., Trientalis europaea var. arctica (Fisch.) Ledeb., Thymus quinquecostatus Celak., Parasenecio firmus (Kom.) Y.L.Chen, and Lilium cernuum Kom. These species are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming, since they were confirmed to have a very narrow vertical distribution range. Moreover, although the following species are not included in the list of plants threatened by climate change, it is assumed that the endemic species that grow at the summit, and Grade V floristics special plants, such as Pedicularis hallaisanensis Hurus., Allium thunbergii var. deltoides (S.O.Yu, S.Lee & W.Lee) H.J.Choi & B.U.Oh, Heloniopsis tubiflora Fuse, N.S.Lee & M.N. Tamura, Aletris glabra Bureau & Franch, and Gymnadenia cucullata (L.) Rich., will also be extremely vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, we believe that measures for the conservation of these species are urgently needed, and also that the definition of species threatened by climate change should be broadened to include more objective and valid taxa through the long-term monitoring of species distributed around the summit area.

In this study, the spatio-temporal variations and trends of frost events (total frost days, first/last frost date) in South Korea were investigated using RegCM4.0 simulation data based on two RCP(4.5, 8.5) scenarios. To evaluate the performance of RegCM4.0 for the current (1981-2010) frost events, the daily minimum temperature of 49 observation sites in South Korea were used. Generally, the RegCM4.0 reasonably simulated the spatial characteristics of frost events, but the first (last) frost date was simulated by about 6.6 (3.3) days earlier (later) than that of the observation. As the results, the simulated number of the total frost days was 10.8 days greater than that of the observation. In the mid- 21st century(2021-2050), the first(last) frost date was projected to be delayed (bring forwarded) by about 7.9(3.1) days in RCP4.5 and about 9.6(2.3) days in RCP8.5, respectively. And the first(last) frost date in the late 21st century(2071-2100) is projected to be delayed (bring forwarded) by about 14.5(15.0) days in RCP4.5 and about 22.2(23.5) days in RCP8.5, comparing to the current climate. These changes could induce a significant decrease of the number of total frost days by about 26.5(47.7) days in the late 21st century under RCP4.5(RCP8.5). And the interannual variability of frost events under RCP4.5(RCP8.5) was projected to be relatively higher(smaller) in the mid-21st century than in the late 21st. The results indicated that the extreme frost events is expected to increase in the mid-21st century under RCP4.5, while in the late 21st century under RCP8.5, comparing to the current climate.

본 연구는 강건성 지수와 불확실성 분석기법을 활용하여 기후변화 취약성 평가과정에서 발생하는 불확실성을 정량화하였다. 본 연구는 우리나 라의 6개 광역시(부산, 대구, 인천, 광주, 대전, 울산)를 대상으로 다기준 의사결정기법 중 하나인 TOPSIS 기법을 이용하여 용수공급 취약성 순위를 산정하였다. 강건성 지수는 두 대상 도시의 순위가 가중치의 변화로 인해 순위역전현상이 발생할 수 있는 가능성을 정량화하고 불확실성 분석 기법 은 두 도시 사이에 순위역전이 발생할 수 있는 가중치의 최소 변화량을 산정한다. 그 결과 인천과 대구는 용수공급 측면에서 취약한 것으로 나타났 으며, 대구와 부산은 용수공급 취약성에 민감한 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 대구는 다른 대안에 비해 상대적으로 용수공급이 취약한 지역으로 나타났 으나, 취약성에 민감하기 때문에 기후변화 적응대책 수립 및 시행을 통해 취약성이 크게 향상될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 기후변화와 용 수공급 측면에서의 적응전략을 계획하고 수립하는데 있어서 우선적으로 고려해야하는 방향을 제안하는 데 사용될 수 있다.

일상적으로 우리가 매일 경험하는 눈, 비, 바람, 기온과 같은 현상을 날씨라고 하며, 일정한 지역에서 장기간에 걸쳐 나타나는 대기 현상의 평균적인 상태를 기후라고 한다. 또한 기후가 평균적 상태에 비해 유의미하게 변동하는 것을 기후변화라고 한다. 콘크리트 구조물의 경 우 외부 극한기후환경에 노출 될 경우 다양한 문제점들이 발생할 수 있다. 이러한 문제점들 중 최근 가장 문제가 되고 있는 폭우, 폭설과 같은 극 한기후인자요소의 작용을 받아 발생 할 수 있는 동결융해에 대한 현상이다. 콘크리트의 경우 온도가 너무 낮거나 높다고 손상이 발생하는 것은 아니라 동결·융해를 반복적으로 받을 경우 심각한 내구성 저하를 나타나게 되며 실제 성능저하가 된 구조물의 경우 회복하기 힘들게 된다. 따 라서 본 연구에서는 극심한 기후변화로 발생 되는 다양한 기후인자 요소 중 풍속-일조시간의 기후변화 양생조건에 대하여 양생 후 콘크리트 동 결융해 실험을 접목시켜 상대동탄성계수를 측정하고 이를 바탕으로 성능중심평가 (Performance Based Evaluation (PBE))를 실시하고 대응책 을 마련하고자 한다.

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of the forest is highlighted as a key sector for mitigating climate change. The objective of this research is to estimate changes on the net primary productivity of forest in South Korea under the different climate change scenarios. The G4M (Global Forest Model) was used to estimate current NPP and future NPP trends in different climate scenarios. As input data, we used detailed (1 km × 1 km) downscaled monthly precipitation and average temperature from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios (2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5). We used MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP data for the model validation. Current NPP derived from G4M showed similar patterns with MODIS NPP data. Total NPP of forest increased in most of RCP scenarios except RCP 8.5 scenario because the average temperature increased by 5°C. In addition, the standard deviation of annual precipitation was the highest in RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation change in wider range could cause water stress on vegetation that affects decrease of forest productivity. We calculated future NPP change in different climate change scenarios to estimate carbon sequestration in forest ecosystem. If there was no biome changes in the future NPP will be decreased up to 90%. On the other hand, if proper biome change will be conducted, future NPP will be increased 50% according to scenarios.

IPCC 제5차 평가보고서에 따르면 극한강우의 빈도 및 강도가 증가할 가능성이 매우 높을 것으로 예측되고 있다. 실제로 극한강우에 따른 침수피 해가 증가하고 있으며, 이에 따라 기후변화의 영향을 반영한 미래 확률강우량 추정이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 RCP 8.5 시나리오로부터 도출된 미래 연 최대 일강수량 자료의 추세분석과 scale-invariance 기법을 이용하여 미래 확률강우량을 추정하였다. 먼저, 기상청 관할 60개 기상 관측소의 관측 강우자료를 이용하여 관측소별로 스케일 특성을 검토한 후, 현재기후 모의자료를 이용하여 scale-invariance 기법의 적용가능성을 검증하였다. 그 후, 미래 일 강수량 시계열을 scale-invariance 특성에 따라 유도된 IDF 곡선식에 적용하여 기후변화의 영향을 반영한 지속시간별 확률강우량을 추정하였다. 대부분의 지점에서 확률강우량이 증가할 것으로 예측되었으나, 일부 지역의 경우에는 감소할 가능성도 있음을 살펴볼 수 있다.

This study evaporative cooling system a heat wave climate change and reduction of the inside and outside thermal environment change research. Measurement items included micro meteorological phenomena and measured comfort indices. A micro meteorograph of temperature, relative humidity, surface temperature, and the comfort indices of WBGT, UTCI, and PMV were measured. The difference in inside and outside temperatures were compared for different land types, with the largest difference found in Type A (4.81℃), followed by Type B (4.40℃ ) and Type C (3.12℃). Relative humidity was about 10.43% higher inside due to water injection by the evaporative cooling system. Surface temperature was inside about 6.60℃ higher than the outside all types. WBGT were Type A (3.50℃) > Type B (2.71℃) > Type C (1.88℃). UTCI was low heat stress inside than outside all types. PMV was analysed Type C for inside predicted percentage of dissatisfied 75%, other types was percentage of dissatisfied 100% by inside and outside. Correlation analysis between land cover type and temperature, surface temperature, pmv, utci. T-test analysed inside and outside temperature difference was significant in all types of land.

전지구적으로 발생하는 기후변화로 인해 수자원의 시공간적 변화를 야기할 것으로 전망된다. 기후변화에 따른 수자원의 영향을 정량적으로 평 가하고 그에 적응할 수 있는 수자원 관리 방안이 필요하다. 하지만 영향평가 시 많은 불확실성이 발생하기 때문에 평가 시 발생하는 불확실성을 정 량적으로 평가할 수 있는 기술 개발이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 수자원 영향평가 시 발생하는 불확실성을 단계별로 평가할 수 있 는 기법을 개발하였으며, 지역기후모형, 통계적 후처리기법, 수문모형에 따른 불확실성을 분석하였다. 평가를 위해 5개 지역기후모형, 5개 통계적 후처리기법과 2개 수문모형을 이용하였다. 불확실성의 요인을 분석한 결과 유출량의 경우 겨울철을 제외한 모든 계절에서 RCM의 불확실성이 29.3~68.9%로 가장 큰 비중을 차지하는 것으로 나타났으나, 겨울철은 수문모형의 불확실성이 46.5%를 차지하는 것으로 나타났다. 증발산량 의 경우 가을철을 제외하고 수문모형의 불확실성이 28.5∼65.1%로 가장 큰 비중을 차지하였다. 따라서 이수기는 수문모형에 더욱 영향이 큰 것 으로 나타났으며, 홍수기는 기후 모델링 부분의 영향이 큰 것으로 사료된다. 이 기법을 통해 특정 RCM이나 통계적 후처리기법, 수문모형 등의 선 정에 따라 전체 불확실성이 어떻게 변화될 수 있는지를 분석할 수 있으며, 이를 통해 불확실성을 저감할 수 있는 방안을 마련할 수 있을 것으로 기대 된다.

To project the effects of climate-induced change on aquatic environments, it is necessary to determine the thermal constraints affecting different fish species and to acquire time series of the current and projected water temperature (WT). Assuming that a nonlinear regression between the WT at individual stations and the ambient air temperature (AT) at nearby weather stations could represent the best relationship of air-water temperature, This study estimates future WT using a general circulation model (GCM). In addition, assuming that the grid-averaged observations of AT correspond to the AT output from GCM simulation, this study constructed a regression curve between the observations of the local WT and the concurrent GCM-simulated surface AT. Because of its low spatial resolution, downscaling is unavoidable. The projected WT under global warming scenario A2 (B2) shows an increase of about 1.6 (0.9 ) for the period 2080-2100. The maximum/minimum WT shows an amount of change similar to that of the mean values. This study will provide guidelines for decision-makers and engineers in climate-induced river environment and ecosystem management.

This study aims to analyze the priority of regional climate change policy utilizing AHP (analytic hierarchy process) at the area of Metropolitan City of Incheon. It derives four factors at first hierarchical level, at which level the analysis of pair-wise comparison indicates that industrial sector, energy sector, climate change response, and green culture policy are considered important in that order. It also ends up with sixteen factors at second level. The result of comparison analysis between all factors reveals that investment promotion in green technology R&D is considered the most significant factor of all, followed by establishment of green enterprise support system, electricity-efficiency enhancement support project and build-up of green culture policy governance. The result implies that diverse promotional policies have to incorporate business, institutional, and cultural aspects for sustainable climate change policy of regions. The contribution of this study is that it highlights the need to include regional characteristics in deciding priority among policy options for them to be effective.

미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따르면 극한강우사상이 현재보다 더 강화될 것으로 전망되기 때문에, 기후변화의 영향이 추정절차에 반영되지 않는 다면 가능최대강수량(PMPs)을 과소 추정하게 될 가능성이 매우 높다. 본 연구에서는 미래의 강우 변동이 반영된 PMPs가 추정된다. PMPs 계산을 위하여 수문기상학적 방법이 이용되며, 기존에 사용되어오던 지형영향비를 대신하여 산악전이비가 가능최대강수량의 산정에 적용된다. 미래 주 요호우사상들로부터의 DAD는 기상청 RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 일 강수자료를 기반으로 편의보정 및 이동평균 된 변화인자를 이용하여 간접적으로 산출된다. 미래 PMPs 산출결과, 현재보다 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며 증가율은 2045년 기준으로 평균적으로 연간 3 mm 정도 증가하는 것으로 예측되었으며, 먼 미래로 갈수록 PMPs의 증가율은 커졌으나 미래강우자료로부터 유발되는 PMPs 추정의 불확 실성 또한 증가되고 있는 것으로 파악된다

Jeju Island is the highest rain-prone area in Korea that possesses affluent water resources, but future climate changes are predicted to further increase vulnerabilities as resultant of increasing of extreme events and creating spatial-temporal imbalance in water resources. Therefore, this study aimed to provide basic information to establish a proper water resources management plan by evaluating the effects of climate change on water resources using climate change scenario. Direct runoff ratio for 15 years (2000~2014) was analyzed to be 11∼32% (average of 23%), and average direct runoff ratio for the next 86 years (2015∼2100) was found as 28%, showing an increase of about 22% compared to the present average direct runoff ratio (23%). To assess the effects of climate change on long-term runoff, monthly runoff variation of future Gangjeong watershed was analyzed by dividing three time periods as follows: Present (2000∼2030), Future 1 (2031∼2070) and Future 2 (2071∼ 2100). The estimated results showed that average monthly runoff increases in the future and the highest runoff is shown by Future 2. Extreme values has been expected to occur more frequently in the future as compared to the present.

This study was carried out to assess the covering of 11 Sedum species on an extensive green roof system under the urban climate of South Korea for 2 years. The eleven Sedum species which came up to the criteria were selected: S. acre, S. album, S. kamtschaticum, S. oryzifolium, S. polystichoides, S. reflexum, S. rupestre, S. sarmentosum, S. sexangulare, S. spurium, and S. telephium. The plants were planted in the extensive green roof system with the substrate of porous glass+bark+field soil (v:v:v, 3:2:5) and then evaluated. The covering area of the Sedum species were about 72㎠ at the start after the establishment. When a year had passed since the systems were established, S. acre, S. oryzifolium and S. sexangulare maintained 200-500㎠/plant of covering area and the others maintained 800-1200㎠/plant. Most covering area increased continuously for about two years and showed a large quantity of increment in summer season with the exception of S. kamtschaticum, S. polystichoides, S. sarmentosum, and S. telephium, whose above-parts were not alive in winter.

The aim of this study is to suggest the social vulnerability index for reflecting social properties of a region, such as population and economy, in vulnerability assessment. For such a research objective, this study composed the assessment index with 'social vulnerability' and 'physical vulnerability'. Also, this study composed the social vulnerability with 'population vulnerability index', 'economic vulnerability index' and 'information vulnerability index' while composing the physical vulnerability with 'flood-risk index', and then selected proxy variables. In addition, this study determined the weight using an entropy weight measurement as an objective weight measurement. The vulnerability assessment result is as follows: First, the vulnerable areas were concentrated around the inner harbours and some rivers of Incheon. Second, the areas vulnerable to the flood caused by climate change were found to be highly vulnerable socially as well as physically. Third, results of assessment were different according to the social properties of an areas despite the identical level of flood risk. The resultant implications are following. First, there is the necessity of having to put emphasis on social vulnerability of an area from the perspective of adaptation to climate change. Second, there is the necessity of having to arrange effective social and physical adaptation strategy based on the results of vulnerability assessment.

This study investigated the future change in surface wind over the Korean Peninsula using a high-resolution climate change scenario projected by a regional climate model (RCM). In the evaluation of historical runs (1981-2010), the RCM reasonably reproduced a 30-year annual mean surface wind and it also represented climatological seasonal wind pattern properly. To examine the future change in surface wind, the results from RCP8.5 run for 30 years (2071-2100) were compared with those from historical run. Despite of slight differences among seasons, southerly differences were overall dominant. This indicated that southerly prevailing wind for summer was intensified in the future climate, while northerly prevailing wind for other seasons was reduced. The changes in the seasonal mean surface wind were significantly associated with those in the surface pressure distribution surrounding the Korean Peninsula. In the future climate, the monthly mean wind speed was reduced compared in the present climate. However, the magnitude and annual variability of the annual maximum wind speed tended to increase in the future climate.