간행물
기후연구 KCI 등재 Journal of Climate Research
- 발행기관 건국대학교 기후연구소
- 자료유형 학술지
- 간기 계간
- ISSN 1975-6151 (Print)2288-8772 (Online)
- 수록기간 2006 ~ 2021
- 주제분류 사회과학 > 지리학 사회과학 분류의 다른 간행물
- 십진분류KDC 453DDC 551
권호리스트/논문검색
제12권 제1호 (2017년 3월) 7건
1.
2017.03
서비스 종료(열람 제한)
In this study, the intra-seasonal fluctuation (ISF) of wintertime temperature change in East Asia was classified by a cluster analysis of complete linkage. A ISF of temperature change was defined as a difference of synthesized harmonics (1 to 36 harmonic) of daily temperature averaged for 30 years (1951~1980, 1981~2010). Eight clusters were gained from the ISF curves of 96 stations in East Asia. Regions of the cluster C, G and A1 seem to be affected by the Siberian High (SH) center, whereas the cluster A1, A2, D, B and F by the SH main pathways. Regions of the cluster E are apart from the SH main pathways and appear to be in the area of influence of other factors. Wintertime temperatures in Northwest China (clusters C, G) and Northeast China (cluster A1) were increased very largely. In most clusters, around late January there were less warming periods than the winter mean of the mean ISF of the clusters, before and after this time there were more warming periods than the winter mean.
2.
2017.03
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In this study, the spatio-temporal variations and trends of frost events (total frost days, first/last frost date) in South Korea were investigated using RegCM4.0 simulation data based on two RCP(4.5, 8.5) scenarios. To evaluate the performance of RegCM4.0 for the current (1981-2010) frost events, the daily minimum temperature of 49 observation sites in South Korea were used. Generally, the RegCM4.0 reasonably simulated the spatial characteristics of frost events, but the first (last) frost date was simulated by about 6.6 (3.3) days earlier (later) than that of the observation. As the results, the simulated number of the total frost days was 10.8 days greater than that of the observation. In the mid- 21st century(2021-2050), the first(last) frost date was projected to be delayed (bring forwarded) by about 7.9(3.1) days in RCP4.5 and about 9.6(2.3) days in RCP8.5, respectively. And the first(last) frost date in the late 21st century(2071-2100) is projected to be delayed (bring forwarded) by about 14.5(15.0) days in RCP4.5 and about 22.2(23.5) days in RCP8.5, comparing to the current climate. These changes could induce a significant decrease of the number of total frost days by about 26.5(47.7) days in the late 21st century under RCP4.5(RCP8.5). And the interannual variability of frost events under RCP4.5(RCP8.5) was projected to be relatively higher(smaller) in the mid-21st century than in the late 21st. The results indicated that the extreme frost events is expected to increase in the mid-21st century under RCP4.5, while in the late 21st century under RCP8.5, comparing to the current climate.
3.
2017.03
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The APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources) data has been widely used for the evaluation of the numerical model due to its higher spatial and temporal resolutions. However, some studies have indicated that it significantly underestimates the extreme precipitation values for several regions such as South Asia compared with station-based observation. In this study, therefore, the 25 year (1981-2005) APHRODITE precipitation data over South Korea during June to September was improved using Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). After the spatial resolution and temporal interval of the ASOS data were changed to be same as those in the APHRODITE data, the GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution for each data was calculated. After then, the GEV distribution of the APHRODITE data was corrected through the quantile mapping method with ASOS data. The corrected APHRODITE data was similar to the annual mean precipitation of the ASOS data. In particular, the corrected annual mean precipitation over South Korea reasonably increased by ~10% and the extreme value of precipitation have significantly improved compared to those from the original APHRODITE data.
4.
2017.03
서비스 종료(열람 제한)
Statistical Forecast of Early Spring Precipitation over South Korea using Multiple Linear Regression
A statistical forecast model for early spring (March and April) precipitation over South Korea is developed by using multiple linear regression method. Predictors are selected among the forty five large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indices. Because the model is meant to use for real-time forecast, the predictors are chosen from the indices that have statistically significant lag correlation with observed early spring precipitation. The selected predictors of early spring precipitation are North Pacific Pattern with 6-month lead, Siberian High Index with 5-month lead and Indian Ocean Basin Mode Index with 3-month lead from March, and they are statistically independent. We applied leave-two-out cross validation. According to the regression map between these indices and synoptic circulations around Korean peninsula, these indices represent the induction of early spring rainfall by controlling East Asian jet and low level moisture flux. The regression coefficients for each training period show that three indices affects evenly at every forecast year and they show stable variability, indicating that the influence of each index does not depend on training period. The developed statistical model significantly predicted early spring precipitation over South Korea (r=0.63, p-value<0.01). Also it marks 61% of hit rate according to the three-category deterministic forecast.
5.
2017.03
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The disaster caused by the heavy rain results in the greatest damage Among the damages caused by the weather disaster. many previous researches actively analyzed heavy rainfall disasters. The work includes analyzing vulnerability of disaster using characteristics and size of disaster damage in local area, selecting influencing factors influencing disaster and analyzing its influence. Rainfall during the heavy rainfall disaster is concerned with regional vulnerability to rainfall. The disaster-induced rainfall averaged on scale was analyzed by classifying disaster damage scale. The damage per precipitation unit is assumed to be disaster vulnerability, and local vulnerability of disasters is analyzed and the tendency of disaster vulnerability is analyzed using a time series analysis. The total amount of rainfall during the disaster period was analyzed in a large amount of rainfall in the Seoul metropolitan area and Busan city. The analysis shows that The average rainfall per accident case is high, and the region with relatively high stability against heavy rainfall disaster is Seoul metropolitan city. Southwest regions of the Korean Peninsula are analyzed to be affected by a very small amount of precipitation. The damage analysis shows that Busan Metropolitan City and the metropolitan area are relatively safe area against disaster. The analysis of disaster vulnerability based on the precipitation during the heavy rainfall disaster provides a clear classification of vulnerability by region.
6.
2017.03
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We conducted dynamic downscaling using the RegCM4.0 with 25 km of horizontal resolution over CORDEX-East Asia phase 2 domain for the current climate (1981-2005) and evaluated its performance using various reference datasets. The HadGEM2-AO with about 110 km of horizontal resolution provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was used as the forcing data of RegCM4.0. the RegCM4.0 generally well simulated the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation by representing geographical and topographic conditions, compared with HadGEM2-AO. In particular, the warm biases in Mongolia, northern China, and Russia during summer and cold biases in Tibetan Plateau, Mongolia, northeast China, and northern India during winter were reduced. However, the systematic wet (dry) biases of summer precipitation in the most of model domain (South Korea) were still remained. It was associated with the southward shifting of low-level jet caused by the weakened North Western Pacific High in HadGEM2-AO. In South Korea, the RegCM4.0 showed a better performance than HadGEM2-AO in terms of the magnitude and spatial variability of both temperature and precipitation. In particular, the RegCM4.0 performed better in simulating the ratio of extreme precipitation over 100 mm/day to total precipitation than HadGEM2-AO. The RegCM4.0 reasonably reproduced the frequency and inter-annual variability of heavy rainfall, frost day, and tropical night over South Korea.
7.
2017.03
서비스 종료(열람 제한)
In this paper, for selected station of 8 clusters in East Asia (Park, 2017) more (less) warming periods than the wintertime mean warming of intra-seasonal fluctuation curves were taken and their means were computed. Long term trends and synoptic features of the mean temperature changes were examined. In most clusters, around the third of January there were less warming periods (LWP) than the mean wintertime warming. On the contrary, in February and the first and second of January there were more warming periods (MWP) than the winter mean or LWPs having a warming trend with statistical signicance. Time series of the daily Siberian High indices showed they had been weakening in February and being stagnant around late January. In most stations, the mean temperatures of MWP or LWP had large negative correlation coecients with the Siberian high intensity. is result explains the occurrences of MWPs in most clusters in February and LWPs in late January. In cluster B there were LWPs in early February due to the influence of the Aleutian Low which were strengthening in that periods. Cluster E showed different features without LWPs in late January. The cluster is considered to be affected by its plateau environment of West Yúnnán and the Tibet Plateau which prevent cold air of the lower atmosphere in Northern Asia flowing southward, and by the regional atmospheric circulation of 500hPa surface centered in this region.
