In this study, we proposed a model for forecasting power energy demand by investigating how outside temperature at a given time affected power consumption and. To this end, we analyzed the time series of power consumption in terms of the power spectrum and found the periodicities of one day and one week. With these periodicities, we investigated two time series of temperature and power consumption, and found, for a given hour, an approximate linear relation between temperature and power consumption. We adopted an exponential smoothing model to examine the effect of the linearity in forecasting the power demand. In particular, we adjusted the exponential smoothing model by using the variation of power consumption due to temperature change. In this way, the proposed model became a mixture of a time series model and a regression model. We demonstrated that the adjusted model outperformed the exponential smoothing model alone in terms of the mean relative percentage error and the root mean square error in the range of 3%~8% and 4kWh~27kWh, respectively. The results of this study can be used to the energy management system in terms of the effective control of the cross usage of the electric energy together with the outside temperature.

The results of the survey on water utilization status, the wasted water factor, the awareness, and the education and promotional activities of water saving in Daejeon City are as follows: The percentage of using tap valve with a closure was 66% when showering. 74% of water was used with closing the tap valve when washing faces with no water needed, it was still considered that there existed a wasting water. The most wasting reasons of water were found to be shower, bath, and laundry in order. In the awareness of practicing tap water saving, 9.1% of respondents acted actively, 53.4% of them were trying to practice it, and more than 63% had a positive awareness. In the contents of practicing saving water, locking water when soaping while showering, non-laundry of small quantity, and using cups when brushing teeth were top priorities. About 50% of the reasons for saving water was to practice purely saving water, when saving for economic help was excluded. The level of water saving awareness was not high when considering that the ratio of usage without water saving equipment and installation, and using method was relatively high when moving in. In order to make usage of water saving equipment more common, it was deemed necessary to provide information on the purchase of water saving equipment and to promote and educate the efficiency of saving of related products. More than about 90% of the respondents responded that water saving education or promotional activities had an effect of improving water saving awareness. The most effective method of education and promotional activities was found to be 40.4% by mass media activities, and 21.7% by promotions through mobile devices.

This study is the process of finding answers to the following questions. Cultural content is needed to study Vietnamese language? Do Vietnamese language learners feel the need for classes using cultural content? Do Vietnamese teachers use cultural contents in class? In order to find out the answer, I conducted a questionnaire survey on Vietnamese students in Chungnam Foreign Language High School, interviewed teachers and analyzed the case examples. As a result of the questionnaires and interviews, it was found that the necessity of cultural contents development in Vietnamese language education is a requirement for both teachers and learners. Based on these results, we developed a case study on cultural education contents for Vietnamese language education. However, the model of teaching Vietnamese language utilizing cultural contents needs to be developed through more diverse academic analysis. Its effectiveness should also be investigated in depth. We will propose this as a future research project.

In this study, we have defined measurement and verification methods and procedures to assess the energy use on the utility system of building. Time series data conversion methods and algorithms have been proposed in performance evaluation options. To verify the feasibility of the method, the energy consumption of the refrigerator, which was an energy utility, was measured and analyzed. we present an algorithm based on the annual base conversion and analyze it based on actual data. As a result, a k-means clustering moving average method was defined for the performance calculation option A, and the use time correction coefficient method was proposed. The validity of this method was verified through the verification.

본 연구는 먼저 명 홍무(洪武) 15년(1382)에 태조가 시행한 유가교와 유가승의 직권(職權)과 직위의 법제화 등 여러 가지 시책들에 대하여, 그 시행의 정치적 고려와 사회적 기초를 검토하였다. 동시에 ‘유가(瑜伽)’란 무엇이며, 그것이 경참(職權), 시식(施食) 등 법사 내용으로서의 유가교로 발전하게 된 과정에 대하여 연구하였다. 다음으로 명 태조가 반포한 유가과의(瑜伽科儀), 경참의 가격과 민간에서 행한 정황을 검토하였는데, 특히 정책규정으로 정해진 경참의 공식 가격이 제대로 행해지기 어려웠던 종교심리적 요소에 대하여 분석하였다. 사회 시장의 높은 수요로 인하여 유가 교승의 수입이 풍부해짐에 따라, 선(禪), 강(講) 두 종파의 승려와 일반 세속의 사람들이 경참에 종사하는 일이 매우 잦았다. 이는 명대 불교의 성격을 세속화, 통속화 시켰을 뿐만 아니라 동시에 승려들의 자질을 하락시켜 승단율행(僧團律行)을 유지하는 것과 충돌하였으며, 심지어 사회 문제를 야기하기도 하였다. 그리하여 일본학자 龍池清은 태조가 교승을 선, 강승들의 지위와 균형을 맞춘 것은 중국 불교 교단사에서 획기적인 변혁이라고 여겼다.

Over the past few years, companies have started moving into specific niches in plus-size fashion. The purpose of this study was to verify the marketability of young plus-size clothes in the USA. Data were collected from female consumers aged from 20 to 39 who have experience of purchasing plus-size items. A total of 282 responses were used for statistical analysis. The research result is as follows. First, the obesity stress is affected more by the subjective obesity level than by the objective obesity level and by how people recognize their body types. Second, from an analysis of the factors affecting the shopping orientation of plus-size consumers, style consciousness, pursuing reasonable, emphasizing comfort, and body consciousness are found to be important factors. Third, even if responders are aware of their exact body size, they actively look for the correct size. Fourth, fit evaluation of plus-size products is based on the factors of size fit and movement fit. The respondents were unsatisfied with chest and arm measurements, which deviate widely by body type for tops. Fifth, the overall dissatisfaction with the plus-size market is attributed to the fact that the product assortment range from which to select styles is narrow, and trend reflection is low. Sixth, the respondents tended to avoid fabrics that make their body type more obvious, textures that give the impression of a larger body size, or stiff textures. These results show that the psychological and physical characteristics of obese consumers should be considered to develop products for the young plus-size market.

Maintaining adequate residual chlorine concentration is an important criteria to provide secure drinking water. The chlorine decay can be influenced by unstable flow due to the transient event caused by operation of hydraulic devices in the pipeline system. In order to understand the relationship between the transient event and the chlorine decay, the probability density function based on the water demand curve of a hypothetical water distribution system was used. The irregular transient events and the same number of events with regular interval were assumed and the fate of chlorine decay was compared. The chlorine decay was modeled using a generic chlorine decay model with optimized parameters to minimize the root mean square error between the experimental chlorine concentration and the simulated chlorine concentration using genetic algorithm. As a result, the chlorine decay can be determined through the number of transients regardless of the occurrence intervals.

한국사회에서 현재 소득불평등에 의한 양극화 문제가 제기되고 있다. 고용노동부(2013, 2015)는 이런 소득불평등의 원인을 1997년 외환위기 이후 노동시장에서 전개된 임금격차 확대에서 찾고 있다. 고용노동부와 통계청의 자료에 의하면 학력별 임금격차가 두드러지게 나타났다. 본 논문은 한국 건설산업 노동 시장의 임금격차 중 학력별 임금격차를 바탕으로 노동시장을 분리하고 각 학력별 노동시장에서 노동수요가 어떤 결정요인에 영향을 받는가에 대해 분석하였다. 먼저 학력별 임금격차를 인적자본론적 시각에서 설명하고 고학력자 노동(인적자원 포함)과 저학력자 노동으로 나눈다. 분석방법으로 학력별 노동을 서로 다른 생산요소로 간주하는 확장된 다요소 Cobb- Douglas 생산함수를 설정하고 비용이론을 활용하여 각 학력별 노동시장에서 노동수요함수를 유도하여 통계자료를 사용하여 실증분석하였다. 추정결과는 첫째 대체로 저학력자와 고학력자(대졸 이상) 간에는 상호보완적, 자본과 고학력자(대졸이 상) 간에는 상호 대체적인 관계가 성립하였다. 둘째 생산량의 증가는 저학력자 수요증가를 가져오지만 고학력자 수요에는 거의 미치지 않았다. 셋째 기술진보는 고학력자 수요증가를 가져오지만 저학력자 수요에 거의 미치지 못했다. 이런 결론을 바탕으로 다음과 같은 정책적 함의를 가질 수 있다. 첫째 건설경기가 불황이면 생산량이 감소하므로 저학력자 노동수요가 감소하여 실업이 발생한다. 따라서 저학력자 고용 촉진정책이 필요하다. 둘째, 건설투자가 감소하면 자본수요가 줄어들어 자본가격이 하락한다. 상대적 으로 비싸진 고학력자의 수요가 감소하고 또한 보완관계인 저학력자의 수요도 감소하게 되므로 전반적인 고용촉진정책이 필요하다. 셋째 건설자본부문에서 기술진보가 발생하면 자본생산성이 높아져 건설자본의 수요가 증가하여 자본가격이 상승한다. 따라서 상호대체관계인 고학력노동의 수요가 증가하고 보완관 계인 저학력 노동수요도 증가한다. 즉 건설부문의 고용촉진을 위해 건설자본부문의 기술혁신정책이 유효 하다. 개별 건설기업은 이러한 건설산업에서 자본, 고학력자와 저학력자 간의 관계를 효율적인 인사관리에 활용할 수 있다.

Intermittent demand is a demand with a pattern in which zero demands occur frequently and non-zero demands occur sporadically. This type of demand mainly appears in spare parts with very low demand. Croston’s method, which is an initiative intermittent demand forecasting method, estimates the average demand by separately estimating the size of non-zero demands and the interval between non-zero demands. Such smoothing type of forecasting methods can be suitable for mid-term or long-term demand forecasting because those provides the same demand forecasts during the forecasting horizon. However, the smoothing type of forecasting methods aims at short-term forecasting, so the estimated average forecast is a factor to decrease accuracy. In this paper, we propose a forecasting method to improve short-term accuracy by improving Croston’s method for intermittent demand forecasting. The proposed forecasting method estimates both the non-zero demand size and the zero demands’ interval separately, as in Croston’s method, but the forecast at a future period adjusted by binomial weight according to occurrence probability. This serves to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts. In this paper, we first prove the unbiasedness of the proposed method as an important attribute in forecasting. The performance of the proposed method is compared with those of five existing forecasting methods via eight evaluation criteria. The simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method is superior to other methods in terms of all evaluation criteria in short-term forecasting regardless of average size and dispersion parameter of demands. However, the larger the average demand size and dispersion are, that is, the closer to continuous demand, the less the performance gap with other forecasting methods.

The purpose of the present study is to analyze needs of graduate students for English education for their academic study. Online survey was administered to all the graduate students in a university located in Seoul, Korea, and a total of 1,241 students participated in this study. The participants varied in majors including humanities and social sciences, natural sciences, engineering, medicine, and so forth. Crosstab analyses were performed in order to analyze the survey data, followed by subordinate analyses by the participants’ majors. Results indicated that most students perceived the great importance of English for their study, and ‘listening’ and ‘speaking’ were found to be the most difficult areas when students take English-medium graduate courses. In addition, although the frequency of scholarly activities varied by majors, most of the students expressed difficulties in writing research papers and making presentations. Based on the results, the present study suggests that English education programs be expanded and opened in order to meet the different needs by the students’ academic majors.

Recent development in science and technology has modernized the weapon system of ROKN (Republic Of Korea Navy). Although the cost of purchasing, operating and maintaining the cutting-edge weapon systems has been increased significantly, the national defense expenditure is under a tight budget constraint. In order to maintain the availability of ships with low cost, we need accurate demand forecasts for spare parts. We attempted to find consumption pattern using data mining techniques. First we gathered a large amount of component consumption data through the DELIIS (Defense Logistics Intergrated Information System). Through data collection, we obtained 42 variables such as annual consumption quantity , ASL selection quantity, order-relase ratio. The objective variable is the quantity of spare parts purchased in f-year and MSE (Mean squared error) is used as the predictive power measure. To construct an optimal demand forecasting model, regression tree model, randomforest model, neural network model, and linear regression model were used as data mining techniques. The open software R was used for model construction. The results show that randomforest model is the best value of MSE. The important variables utilized in all models are consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity and order-release rate. The data related to the demand forecast of spare parts in the DELIIS was collected and the demand for the spare parts was estimated by using the data mining technique. Our approach shows improved performance in demand forecasting with higher accuracy then previous work. Also data mining can be used to identify variables that are related to demand forecasting.

최근 빅데이터 분석이 각광을 받기 시작하면서 의료, 관광 등 각종 분야에서 빅데이터를 활용한 다양한 분석이 시도되고 있다. 빅데이터로 기존 통계로 밝히지 못했던 새로운 사실을 알 수 있기 때문이다. 교통 분야에서도 이런 측면에서 빅데이터를 주목하기 시작했다. 그 중에서도 가장 각광 받고 있는 데이터는 바로 ‘통신자료’이다. 통신자료는 휴대폰 이용자가 휴대폰을 사용하거나 사용하지 않더라도 단말기를 소지하면 기지국으로 해당 단말기의 신호가 수신되면서 기록되는 데이터를 의미한다. 여기에는 이동 행태 분석에 가장 필요한 실시간 위치 정보가 포함되어 있기 때문에 교통 분야에 매우 유용하다. 또한 그동안 추정을 통해서만 알 수 있었던 인구 전체에 대한 데이터가 집계되어 있어 불특정 다수의 수요를 파악해야 하는 교통 분야에는 상당히 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 만일 통신자료가 교통 분석의 기반 데이터로 활용된다면, 기존 설문조사에 투입되는 막대한 인력과 예산을 줄일 수 있을 것이다. 이런 측면에서 본 연구는 통신자료를 교통 분야에 지속적으로 활용할 수 있는 틀을 구축하고자 하였다. 이를 위해서는 통신자료를 교통 분석 목적에 맞게 조정해야 한다. 현재 통신업체에서 보유하고 있는 통신자료는 기지국의 특성상 변동성이 커 분석 영역을 고정시키기 어렵고 이동 행태를 분석하는 데도 적합하지 않다. 기존에는 이러한 한계를 인정하고 이동 패턴을 분석하는 데 포인트 정보인 기지국 좌표 정보만을 활용하였지만, 이러한 방식을 지속적으로 활용할 경우 통행자의 이동 행태를 왜곡할 가능성이 높다. 기지국의 수신범위가 둘 이상의 행정구역을 포함할 때 기지국 좌표 정보는 포인트 정보로 하나의 행정구역만을 나타내기 때문이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 ㈜ KT에서 제공한 기지국 정보를 이용하여 기지국의 위치 변동 특징과 지역별 기지국 영향권 규모 특징을 분석한 후 이를 고정시킬 수 있는 방법을 모색하였다. 그리고 교통 분석 목적에 맞게 이동 행태 분석이 용이하도록 사회 경제적 특성을 반영할 수 있는 방법을 연구하였다. 해당 방법의 타당성은 전국 단위로 해당 방법을 적용하여 기지국과 행정구역의 매칭률과 이동 패턴 분석 가능성을 검토하여 확인하였다. 분석 결과 매칭률은 100%로 나타났으며, 이동 패턴화가 가능한 규모로 형성되어 실제 교통 수요 분석에 활용할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구 제시한 알고리즘을 적용하면 기존 방식의 오차 발생 가능성을 줄일 수 있어 분석의 정확성을 보다 향상시킬 수 있을 것이다. 그러나 본 연구는 기초 연구로서 교통시설의 위치 등 이동 패턴 분석에 영향을 줄 수 있는 기타 요인들이 반영되지 않은 만큼 향후 정확성을 높이는 작업이 요구된다.

This research studies on the demand forecasting for service parts considering parts life cycle, that gets relatively less attentions in the field of forecasting. Our goal is to develop forecasting method robust across many situations, not necessarily optimal for a limited number of specific situations. For this purpose, we first extensively analyze the drawbacks of the existing forecasting methods, then we propose the new demand forecasting method by using these findings and reinforcement leaning technique. Using simulation experiments, we proved that the proposed forecasting method is better than the existing methods under various experimental environments.

The purpose of this study was to identify the consumers’ demands on functional design of sports climbing pants. Data were collected through a field survey. 82 male and 70 female amateur sports climbers in Seoul participated. The questionnaires measured aspects of functional design in sports climbing pants, specifically motion adaptability, comfort and aesthetic value of the climbing pants. The results of this study show that comfort during climbing postures was the most important value of the climbing pants. The subjects sought motion adaptability at the hip, crotch, thigh and knee. The preferred style and degree of fit of climbing pants were differed according to gender. Men preferred loose or semi tight fit style climbing pants but women preferred the leggings style of the sport pants. The soft touch seam line and body shaping function were also important for women. The type of pants preferred for sports climbing also differed by the climbing experience period. Men began to wear the outdoor mountaineering style pants when they had experienced sports climbing for 6 months and to wear the climbing expert style pants when they had experienced sports climbing for a year. Most women wore leggings style sports pants from the beginner stage. This study also analyzed Korean market trend in 2016~2017 F/W for sports climbing pants design. The men’s pants were more likely to be designed to improve mobility compared to the women’s pants, even though the aesthetic value of the sports climbing pants was important for women.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the fishery perception and recreation fishing demand level of coastal waters ranch with the case in Tongyeong city’s Bijin-do Yongcho-do, Juk-do. The study conducts a survey of 27 fishermen and 113 recreation fishing tourists from September 26 to November 21, 2016. The major results of this study are as follows. First, the survey of fishery perception level suggests that the increase of fishery resources by Tongyeong-si coastal waters ranch project contributes to the rising income of fishermen, decreased fishing cost, and increased the number of tourists. Second, the survey of recreation fishing tourists’s demand level suggests that a beautiful view, fish populations, kindness of residents, fishing point information, charter information, and the convenience of transportation are highly praised and highly regarded. However, links to nearby tourism, lodging facilities, and food information that can increase the income of fishermen is poorly praised. Therefore, this study suggests that a careful marine policy with fishery resource creation should be followed for marine fishing village tourism consumer’s benefits in order to increase fishing village’s income.

In this research, we propose efficient demand forecasting scheme for intermittent demand. For this purpose, we first extensively analyze the drawbacks of the existing forecasting methods such as Croston method and Syntetos-Boylan approximation, then using these findings we propose the new demand forecasting method. Our goal is to develop forecasting method robust across many situations, not necessarily optimal for a limited number of specific situations. For this end, we adopt combining forecasting method that utilizes unbiased forecasting methods such as simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average. Various simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method performed better than the existing forecasting methods.