Different from general operating policies to be applied for controllable queueing models, two of three well-known simple N, T and D operating policies are applied alternatingly to the single server controllable queueing models, so called alternating (NT), (ND) and (TD) policies. For example, the alternating (ND) operating policy is defined as the busy period is initiated by the simple N operating policy first, then the next busy period is initiated by the simple D operating policy and repeats the same sequence after that continuously. Because of newly designed operating policies, important system characteristic such as the expected busy and idle periods, the expected busy cycle, the expected number of customers in the system and so on should be redefined. That is, the expected busy and idle periods are redefined as the sum of the corresponding expected busy periods and idle periods initiated by both one of the two simple operating policies and the remaining simple operating policy, respectively. The expected number of customers in the system is represented by the weighted or pooled average of both expected number of customers in the system when the predetermined two simple operating policies are applied in sequence repeatedly. In particular, the expected number of customers in the system could be used to derive the expected waiting time in the queue or system by applying the famous Little’s formulas. Most of such system characteristics derived would play important roles to construct the total cost functions per unit time for determination of the optimal operating policies by defining appropriate cost elements to operate the desired queueing systems.

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop a method for improving the accuracy of analysis results obtained from a twodimensional (2-D) numerical analysis model of continuously reinforced concrete pavement (CRCP). METHODS: The analysis results from the 2-D numerical model of CRCP are compared with those from more rigorous three-dimensional (3- D) models of CRCP, and the relationships between the results are recognized. In addition, the numerical analysis results are compared with the results obtained from field experiments. By performing these comparisons, the calibration factors used for the 2-D CRCP model are determined. RESULTS : The results from the comparisons between 2-D and 3-D CRCP analyses show that with the 2-D CRCP model, concrete stresses can be overestimated significantly, and crack widths can either be underestimated or overestimated by a slight margin depending on the assumption of plane stress or plane strain. The behaviors of crack width in field measurements are comparable to those obtained from the numerical model of CRCP. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of analysis results from the 2-D CRCP model can be improved significantly by applying calibration factors obtained from comparisons with 3-D analyses and field experiments.

미국 AASHTO LRFD(AASHTO, 2012)나 국내의 도로교설계기준(2012)의 차랑충돌에 대한 교각설계기준을 참조하면 교각 설계 시 차량충돌에 대해 정적인 하중을 고려하도록 제시하고 있다. 한편 2003년 미국 네브래스카 주에 트럭이 교각에 충돌하여 교각 및 교량 상부구조가 붕괴되는 사고가 발생하는 등 차량충돌에 의한 교량붕괴사고는 홍수에 의한 교량붕괴사고에 이은 두 번째 요인으로 분류되기도 한다. 화물차량의 대형화와 도로시스템의 개선으로 인하여 이러한 사고가 발생할 가능성이 중가하고 있다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 교각 설계시 차량충돌에 대한 동적 해석을 수행하게 되면 많은 비용과 시간이 소요되어 실용적인 측면에서 연구결과가 쉽게 반영되지 못하고 있으므로 충돌해석 비용과 시간을 저감할 수 있는 모델축소법(model reduction)을 이용한 해석방법을 개발하였으며 그 효용성을 최종변위에 대해 직접충돌해석결과와 비교함으로써 평가하였다.

2017년까지 정부는 사회적기업 3천개를 육성하고 사회적기업에 10만명을 고용하려는 계획을 가지고 있다. 우리나라의 사회적기업은 2007년 사회적기업 육성법이 제정된 이래 본격적으로 육성을 시작, 2015 년 현재 1400여개의 가파른 양적 성장을 기록하였다. 하지만 양적 성장은 이루었지만 여전히 대다수 사회적기업이 그 경제적․사회적 목적에 맞는 자립을 이루어내지 못하고 정부에 대한 높은 의존을 하고 있는 점과 규모의 영세성이 해결해야 할 문제점으로 남아있다. 이에 내실화를 이루고 안정적인 사회적기업의 정착을 위해 사회적기업을 위한 생태계 조성에 또 하나 의 토대가 될 수 있는 상생모델의 제시를 통해 앞으로의 발전방향을 모색해보고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 행복나래(주)의 사회적기업 지원에 대한 성과분석을 바탕으로 사회적기업의 안정적 생태계 조성을 위한 또 하나의 방안으로서 모범적 상생모델과 앞으로의 발전방향에 대해 제시하였다.

Recently, transaction data is accumulated everywhere such as bank and IT company. Association analysis methods are usually applied to analyze transaction data, but the methods have several problems. For example, these methods only consider one-way relations among items and cannot reflect domain knowledge to analysis process. In order to overcome defect of association analysis methods, we suggest a transaction data analysis method based on probabilistic graphical model (PGM) in this study. The method we suggest has several advantages as compared with association analysis methods. For example, this method has a high flexibility, so it can give a solution to various probability problems regarding the transaction data and can consider various relationships among items.

본 연구에서는 태풍 나크리에 의한 해운대 해수욕장의 쇄파대 수리특성을 SWASH 모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 국립해양 조사원에서 제공하는 파랑관측자료를 바탕으로 태풍 나크리 내습 시의 대표파를 선정하였다. 수치모형에서 입사파는 JONSWAP Spectrum에 의한 불규칙파로 선정하였다. SWASH 모형에 의해 산정된 해빈류 패턴은 현지관측자료와 비교하였으며 수치모형에서 산정된 최대소상고는 비디오 모니터링 자료 및 경험식과 비교하였다. 최대소상고의 위치는 비디오 모니터링 자료에 나타난 파흔을 이용하여 유추하였으며 태풍 NAKRI(1412) 내습 시 S 계열의 파랑이 지배적으로 작용하였으며 동백섬측에서 미포측으로 연안류가, 해운대 해수욕장 중앙부근에서 이안류가 발생하였다. SWASH 모형을 이용하여 산정한 최대소상고(1.15 m)는 비디오 모니터링 자료(1.26 m)와 유사한 경향성을 나타냈으며 Stockdon et al.에 의해 제시된 경험식(1.33m)과 비교적 유사하게 나타났다.

The objective of this study is to examine the potential of cost reduction and factors affecting production cost of Korean farmers. First, the study estimates technical efficiency, allocation efficiency, and cost efficiency of Korean farmers using DEA. Then, Tobit regressions are conducted to identify factors affecting each of the three efficiency scores. The study uses the Farm Household Economy Survey data from the Korean National Bureau of Statistics for the period from 2008 to 2012. Results from DEA show that overall, technical and cost efficiency scores are low, which suggests a great potential of cost reduction for Korean farmers. The results also show relatively large differences in efficiency scores across provinces. Tobit results suggest that farm size, number of family members, operation costs, and invested capital amount are major factors affecting farm efficiencies.

In order to increase seismic performance of nuclear power plant (NPP) in strong seismic zone, lead-rubber bearing (LRB) can be applied to seismic isolation system of NPP structures. Simple equivalent linear model as structural analysis model of LRB is more widely used in initial design process of LRB than a bilinear model. Seismic responses for seismically isolated NPP containment structures subjected to earthquakes categorized into 5 different soil-site classes are calculated by both of the equivalent linear- and bilinear- LRB models and compared each others. It can be observed that the maximum displacements of LRB and shear forces of containment in the case of the equivalent linear LRB model are larger than those in the case of bilinear LRB model. From the seismic fragility curves of NPP containment structures isolated by LRB, it can be observed that seismic fragility in the case of equivalent linear LRB model are about 5~30 % larger than those in the case of bilinear LRB model.

Water cycle within the human civilization has become important with urbanization. To date, water cycle in the eco-system has been the focus in identifying the degree of water cycle in cities, but in practicality, water cycle within the human civilization system is taking on an increasing importance. While in recent years plans to reuse water have been implemented to restore water cycle in cities, the effect that such reuse has on the entire water cycle system has not been analyzed. The analysis on the effect that water reuse has on urban areas needs to be go beyond measuring the cost-savings and look at the changes brought about in the entire city’s water cycle system. This study uses a SWAT model and water balance analysis to review the effects that water reuse has on changes occurring in the urban water cycle system by linking the water cycle within the eco-system with that within the human civilization system. The SWAT model to calculate the components of water cycle in the human civilization system showed that similar to measured data, the daily changes and accumulative data can be simulated. When the amount of water reuse increases in urban areas, the surface outflow, amount of sewer discharge and the discharged amount from sewage treatment plants decrease, leading to a change in water cycle within our human civilization system. The determinant coefficients for reduced surface outflow amount and reduced sewer discharge were 0.9164 and 0.9892, respectively, while the determinant coefficient for reduced discharge of sewage treatment plants was 0.9988. This indicates that with an increase in water reuse, surface flow, sewage and discharge from sewage treatment plants all saw a linear reduction.

PURPOSES : This study evaluated the feasibility of implementing protected-permissive left-turn (PPLT) signals at three-leg signalized intersections. METHODS: A three-leg signalized intersection with permissive left-turn was first selected. A VISSIM simulation model was constructed using data collected from the test site. The VISSIM network was calibrated by adjusting related parameter values in order to minimize the difference between the simulated and surveyed critical gap. The calibrated network was validated by the number of waiting left-turning vehicles per cycle. Finally, the mobility and safety measures were extracted from simulation runs in which permissive, protected left turns as well as PPLTs were realized based on diverse traffic volume scenarios. RESULTS : The mobility-related measures of effectiveness (MOEs) of the case with PPLT outperformed the other two left-turn treatment scenarios. In particular, the average waiting time per cycle for the left-turn vehicles in the case with PPLT was reduced by 30 s. The safetyrelated MOEs of the case with PPLT were somewhat higher than those in the case with protected left-turns and much higher than those in the case with permissive left-turns. CONCLUSIONS : Based on the mobility- and safety-related MOEs generated from the VISSIM simulation runs, the use of PPLT seems to be feasible at three-leg signalized intersections where the left-turn is permissive and a pedestrian signal exists at the conflicting approach. However, in order to use the PPLT in earnest, it is necessary to revise the road traffic act, traffic signs, and related manuals.

This research carried out an analysis on input cost and leakage reduction effect by leakage reduction method, focusing on the project for establishing an optimal water pipe network management system in the Taebaek region, which has been executed annually since 2009. Based on the result, optimal cost-benefit analysis models for water distribution network rehabilitation project were developed using DEA(data envelopment analysis) and multiple regression analysis, which have been widely utilized for efficiency analysis in public and other projects. DEA and multiple regression analysis were carried out by applying 4 analytical methods involving different ratios and costs. The result showed that the models involving the analytical methods 2 and 4 were of low significance (which therefore were excluded), and only the models involving the analytical methods 1 and 3 were suitable. From the result it was judged that the leakage management method to be executed with the highest priority for the improvement of revenue water ratio was installation of pressure reduction valve, followed by replacement of water distribution pipe, replacement of water supply pipe, and then leakage detection and repair; and that the execution of leakage management methods in this order would be most economical. In addition, replacement of water meter was also shown to be necessary in case there were a large number of defective water meters.

상태 기반 페리다이나믹 모델은 일반적인 재료 구성 모델을 구현할 수 있고 비국부 영역 내에서 연결된 모든 결합의 변형을 통해 각 절점의 재료 응답이 결정되기 때문에 체적 및 전단 변형을 모두 표현할 수 있다. 따라서 상태 기반 모델은 복잡한 동적 취성 파괴 현상(분기균열, 2차 균열, 계단균열, 균열 유착 등)을 해석하는데 유용하다. 본 논문에서는 평면응력 탄성체에 대해 2차원 상태 기반 페리다이나믹 모델을 적용하고 에너지해방율과 페리다이나믹 에너지 포텐셜로부터 손상 모델을 구성하였다. 페리다이나믹 파괴 해석 모델을 통해 취성 유리 재료에 대해 균열 면에 평행한 압축 응력파가 균열 분기 패턴에 미치는 영향에 대해 조사하였다. 실험을 통해 관찰된 동적 균열 진전 및 분기 패턴에 대한 주요 특성들이 페리다이나믹 해석을 통해 확인되었다. 또한 강한 인장 하중 하의 계단균열과 이차균열 등이 상태 기반 페리다이나믹 시뮬레이션을 통해 잘 모사가 되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

The purpose of the warranty data analysis can be classified into two categories. Two goals is a failure cause analysis and life prediction analysis. In this paper first, we applied multivariate analysis method that can be estimated in consideration of various factors on the failure cause warranty data. In particular, we apply the Tree model and Cox model. The advantage of the Tree is easy to interpret this result as compared to other models. In addition Cox model can quantitatively express the risk. Second, this paper proposed a multivariate life prediction model (AFT) considering a variety of factors. By applying the actual warranty data confirmed the usability.

Modern football has transformed into a scientific football based on data. With this trend, various methods for tactics studies and outcome prediction have been developed on the perspective of data analysis. In this paper, we propose a structural equation model for football game. We analyze critical factors that affect to the winning of game except psychological parts and the causal relationship between latent variables and observed variables is statistically verified through the proposed structural equation model. The results show that the Passing ability and the Ball possession affect to the Attack ability, and consequently it has a positive impact on the winning of game.

PURPOSES: The purpose of this study is to verify traffic accident injury severity factors for elderly drivers and the relative relationship of these factors. METHODS: To verify the complicated relationship among traffic accident injury severity factors, this study employed a structural equation model (SEM). To develop the SEM structure, only the severity of human injuries was considered; moreover, the observed variables were selected through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The number of fatalities, serious injuries, moderate injuries, and minor injuries were selected for observed variables of severity. For latent variables, the accident situation, environment, and vehicle and driver factors were respectively defined. Seven observed variables were selected among the latent variables. RESULTS: This study showed that the vehicle and driver factor was the most influential factor for accident severity among the latent factors. For the observed variable, the type of vehicle, type of accident, and status of day or night for each latent variable were the most relative observed variables for the accident severity factor. To verify the validity of the SEM, several model fitting methods, including , GFI, AGFI, CFI, and others, were applied, and the model produced meaningful results. CONCLUSIONS: Based on an analysis of results of traffic accident injury severity for elderly drivers, the vehicle and driver factor was the most influential one for injury severity. Therefore, education tailored to elderly drivers is needed to improve driving behavior of elderly driver.

본 논문에서는 CFT 구조의 강관과 내부 충전 콘크리트 간 복합거동을 유한요소해석 시 적절하게 반영하기 위해 강관과 콘크리트 간 부착 슬립관계 묘사를 위한 알고리즘을 제시하였다. 내부 충전 콘크리트에 축방향 하중 발생 시, 강관과 콘크리트 간 마찰로 인해 강관으로 하중이 전달되며, 이에 따른 강관 슬립량과 힘의 평형관계를 통해 등가강성을 통해 부착관계를 파악할 수 있다. 실제 원형 CFT 부재의 부착응력 실험을 통해 측정된 수직 및 수평 방향 응력 분포 결과와 제안된 해석 기법을 통해 산정된 응력 분포의 비교를 통해 제안된 해석 기법의 타당성을 검증하였다. 또한 비선형 유한요소해석 시 강관과 콘크리트의 부착 거동 묘사에 따라 CFT 기둥의 거동 특성에 영향을 미치게 되므로 축방향 하중이 작용하는 CFT 부재 실험결과와 제안된 부착-슬립 모델을 반영한 유한요소해석 결과의 하중-변위 곡선 관계 비교를 통해 제안된 기법의 적합성을 검증하였다.

This study aims to analyze causalities among Hairtail prices by distribution channel using a vector autoregressive model. This study applies unit-root test for stability of data, uses Granger causality test to know interaction among Hairtail Prices by distribution channel, and employes the vector autoregressive model to estimate statistical impacts among t-2 period variables used in model. Analyzing results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, and KPSS tests show that the change rate of Hairtail price by distribution channel differentiated by logarithm is stable. Second, a Granger causality test presents that the producer price of Hairtail leads the wholesale price and then the wholesale price leads the consumer price. Third, the vector autoregressive model suggests that the change rate of Hairtail producer price of t-2 period variables statistically, significantly impacts change rates of own, wholesale, and consumer prices at current period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of the structural shocks with a respectively distribution channel of the Hairtail prices are relatively more powerful in own distribution channel than in other distribution channels. Fifth, a forecast error variance decomposition of the Hairtail prices points out that the own price has relatively more powerful influence than other prices.

보증데이터의 분석 목적은 크게 세 가지로 분류할 수 있다. 첫째 현상파악이다. 현 상파악은 각 부품별 보증클레임데이터를 이용하여 각부품의 현수준을 분석하는 방법 으로 단변량 분석방법이다. 즉 부품의 현 수명(신뢰도)를 분석할 수 있는 생명표법, 카 랜마이어 방법이 대표적이라고 할 수 있다. 둘째, 고장원인분석이다. 부품의 고장에 다 양한 인자가 영향을 줄 것이다. 생산부터 고객의 사용조건까지 다양할 것이다. 이처럼 단순히 사용시간을 가지고 분석하는 것이 아닌 다양한 원인변수를 통해서 원인을 파 악하는 다변량 방법이다. 셋째, 단변량이 아닌 다변량 수명예측방법으로 그 모형의 구 조에 따라 비례적 위험함수 모형 (proportional hazards)의 가정을 적용하는 COX 모형 과 가속화 시간 (accelerated failure time)을 적용하는 AFT 모형으로 분류할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 예측에 적합한 AFT모형을 통해서 생존 시간 자체에 대한 설명변수 의 효과를 모형화하고 각 부품의 수명을 예측하고자 한다. 이 방법을 제시하는 이유는 COX모형의 경우 준 모수적 방법으로 위험함수의 모수적 유형을 지정하지 않아도 된 다는 장점을 가지고 있지만, 위험 함수 보다는 설명변수의 효과를 추정에 그 주 목적 이 있기 때문에 모형의 결과를 수명예측에 사용하기에는 부적합하다. 본 논문에서는 다양한 인자를 고려하여 부품의 수명 및 수명에 대한 설명변수의 효 과를 모형화 하여 보증데이터를 분석하는 AFT 모형을 제시 하였고 실제 보증데이터 를 통해서 AFT 모형의 활용성을 확인하였다.

A steady-state controllable M/G/1 queueing model operating under the {T:Min(T,N)} policy is considered where the {T:Min(T,N)} policy is defined as the next busy period will be initiated either after T time units elapsed from the end of the previous busy period if at least one customer arrives at the system during that time period, or after T time units elapsed without a customer’ arrival, the time instant when Nth customer arrives at the system or T time units elapsed with at least one customer arrives at the system whichever comes first. After deriving the necessary system characteristics including the expected number of customers in the system, the expected length of busy period and so on, the total expected cost function per unit time for the system operation is constructed to determine the optimal operating policy. To do so, the cost elements associated with such system characteristics including the customers’ waiting cost in the system and the server’s removal and activating cost are defined. Then, procedures to determine the optimal values of the decision variables included in the operating policy are provided based on minimizing the total expected cost function per unit time to operate the queueing system under considerations.