In modern society, the delivery service market has grown explosively due to rapid changes in social structure and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, various problems such as injury to workers and an increase in human accidents are occurring due to the loading and unloading of parcels. In order to solve this problem, domestic company n is developing a “robot-based cargo loading and unloading system”. In developing a new technology system, quantitative reliability targets should be set for efficient operation and development. In this paper, reliability analysis was conducted through field data for the pneumatic gripper of the “robot-based cargo loading system”. The reliability of the failure data was analyzed to estimate the distribution parameters and MTTF. Random data was derived for the probability of occurrence of a failure with the estimated value. By repeating the simulation to predict the number and year of failures according to the estimated parameters of the probability distribution, it was proposed as a method that reflects realistic probabilities rather than calculating with simple arithmetic using the average MTTF previously used in the field.

Due to advancements in technology and manufacturing capability, it is not uncommon that life tests yield no or few failures at low stress levels. In these situations it is difficult to analyse lifetime data and make meaningful inferences about product or system reliability. For some products or systems whose performance characteristics degrade over time, a failure is said to have occurred when a performance characteristic crosses a critical threshold. The measurements of the degradation characteristic contain much useful and credible information about product or system reliability. Degradation measurements of the performance characteristics of an unfailed unit at different times can directly relate reliability measures to physical characteristics. Reliability prediction based on physical performance measures can be an efficient and alternative method to estimate for some highly reliable parts or systems. If the degradation process and the distance between the last measurement and a specified threshold can be established, the remaining useful life is predicted in advance. In turn, this prediction leads to just in time maintenance decision to protect systems. In this paper, we describe techniques for mapping product or system which has degrading performance parameter to the associated classical reliability measures in the performance domain. This paper described a general modeling and analysis procedure for reliability prediction based on one dominant degradation performance characteristic considering pseudo degradation performance life trend model. This pseudo degradation trend model is based on probability modeling of a failure mechanism degradation trend and comparison of a projected distribution to pre-defined critical soft failure point in time or cycle.

PURPOSES: The objective of this paper is to select the confidential intervals by utilizing the second moment reliability index(Hasofer and Lind; 1974) related to the number of load applications to failure which explains the fatigue failure and rut depth that it indicates the permanent deformation. By using Finite Element Method (FEM) Program, we can easily confirm the rut depth and number of load repetitions without Pavement Design Procedures for generally designing pavement depths. METHODS : In this study, the predictive models for the rut depth and the number of load repetitions to fatigue failure were used for determining the second moment reliability index ( ). From the case study results using KICTPAVE, the results of the rut depth and the number of load repetitions to fatigue failure were deducted by calculating the empirical predictive equations. Also, the confidential intervals for rut depth and number of load repetitions were selected from the results of the predictive models. To determine the second moment reliability index, the spreadsheet method using Excel’s Solver was used. RESULTS : From the case studies about pavement conditions, the results of stress, displacement and strain were different with depth conditions of layers and layer properties. In the clay soil conditions, the values of strain and stresses in the directly loaded sections are relatively greater than other conditions. It indicates that the second moment reliability index is small and confidential intervals for rut depth and the number of load applications are narrow when we apply the clay soil conditions comparing to the applications of other soil conditions. CONCLUSIONS : According to the results of the second moment reliability index and the confidential intervals, the minimum and maximum values of reliability index indicate approximately 1.79 at Case 9 and 2.19 at Case 22. The broadest widths of confidential intervals for rut depth and the number of load repetitions are respectively occurred in Case 9 and Case 7.

As information-oriented industry has been developed and electronic devices has come to be smaller, lighter, multifunctional, and high speed, the components used to the devices need to be much high density and should have find pattern due to high integration. Also, diverse reliability problems happen as user environment is getting harsher. For this reasons, establishing and securing products and components reliability comes to key factor in company's competitiveness. It makes accelerated test important to check product reliability in fast way. Out of fine pattern failure modes, failure of Electrochemical Migration(ECM) is kind of degradation of insulation resistance by electro-chemical reaction, which it comes to be accelerated by biased voltage in high temperature and high humidity environment. In this thesis, the accelerated life test for failure caused by ECM on fine pattern substrate, 20/20μm pattern width/space applied by Semi Additive Process, was performed, and through this test, the investigation of failure mechanism and the life-time prediction evaluation under actual user environment was implemented. The result of accelerated test has been compared and estimated with life distribution and life stress relatively by using Minitab software and its acceleration rate was also tested. Through estimated weibull distribution, B10 life has been estimated under 95% confidence level of failure data happened in each test conditions. And the life in actual usage environment has been predicted by using generalized Eyring model considering temperature and humidity by developing Arrhenius reaction rate theory, and acceleration factors by test conditions have been calculated.

델파이는 전문가의 의견에 기초하여 미래를 예측하는 방법이다. 델파이가 얼마나 타당하고 신뢰할 수 있는지를 검토하는 것은 중요하다. 이 논문에서는 우리나라의 IT와 BT 분야의 델파이 조사의 정확도와 정밀도를 분석하고, 그 관계에 대해 논의한다. 분석 결과, 예측결과의 정확도와 정밀도는 그 분야와 전문도에 따라 일부 차이를 보였다. 또한, 전문도가 높은 응답의 경우, 예측결과의 정확도와 정밀도 간의 유의한 상관관계가 발견되었다. 이 결과는 예측의 정밀도가 정확도를 판단하는 하나의 기준이 될 수 있음을 의미한다.

The reliability prediction and evaluation for general electronic components are required to guarantee in quality and in efficiency. Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. In this study reliability prediction of electronic components, that is the interface card, which is used in the CNC(Computerized Numerical Controller) of machine tools, was carried out using PRISM reliability prediction specification. Reliability performances such as MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure), failure rate and reliability were obtained, and the variation of failure rate for electronic components according to temperature change was predicted. The results obtained from this study are useful information to consider a counter plan for weak components before they are used.

Because the damages of corrosion resulting from the chloride ion are very serious, many research studies have been performed to measure the penetration depth of the chloride ion. However, there is a problem with data selection obtained from collection during experiments. After careful study, it appears that the collected data are not conformed to a normal distribution. The result of this study will play a very important role, as a first step for the development and construction of a forecasting system to help determine a reliable service lifetime of marine structures.

Recently, the reliability are applied for many industrial products, and many products are required to guarantee in quality and in performance. The purpose of this paper is to present some of reliability prediction methodologies using failure rate database for machinery parts that are applicable to machine tools. VDI Turret, which is core component of the NC Lathe, was chosen as the target of the reliability prediction. The results of reliability prediction has shown the failure rate, MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure), and reliability of the VDI Turret. It is expected that proposed methodologies will be applicable to prediction of reliability for other components of machine tools.

This paper is concerned with the method of estimating lifetime distribution for field data in warranty period and for a situation where some additional field data can be gathered after the warranty period. Implementing the proposed methods in this paper will result in obtaining the more precise product life time estimation and product improvement.

콘크리트구조물의 진단에 사용되는 비파괴실험법들은 구조물에 손상을 입히지 않고 구조물의 결함이나 강도를 추정할 수 있다는 장점이 있지만 추정값에 대한 신뢰성이 떨어진다는 문제점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위해 2가지 배합으로 총 180개의 공시체를 제작하였고, P파와 S파에 의한 초음파속도 측정, 종진동과 변형진동에 의한 충격공진법 총 4가지의 비파괴실험을 실시하였다. 그리고 실제압축강도 측정을 통해 비파괴실험 결과값의 신뢰성을 비교 분석하였다. 각 비파괴실험법의 결과값에 대한 통계적 분석결과 변동계수값이 가장 낮은 실험법은 S파에 의한 초음파속도법으로 가장 안정적인 관측이 가능한 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 실제압축강도와의 관계를 통해 압축강도 4개의 압축강도 추정식을 제안하였으며 S파에 의한 초음파속도법의 결정계수값이 가장 높은 것으로 나타났다. 향후 다양한 배합조건에 따른 비파괴실험 신뢰성에 대한 보완 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

In this study, We expected a performance for asphalt pavement in bridge decks using survival functions on reliability theory. The sample data were extracted in the Highway Bridge Management System(HBMS). It were 1,132 bridges that were calibrated by a construction report and filtering of inconsistent data. The average life of all the Asphalt Pavement in Bridge Decks was about 12years.