Nuclear Material Accountancy (NMA) system quantitatively evaluates whether nuclear material is diverted or not. Material balance is evaluated based on nuclear material measurements based on this system and these processes are based on statistical techniques. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the performance based on modeling and simulation technique from the development stage. In the performance evaluation, several diversion scenarios are established, nuclear material diversion is attempted in a virtual simulation environment according to these scenarios, and the detection probability is evaluated. Therefore, one of the important things is to derive vulnerable diversion scenario in advance. However, in actual facilities, it is not easy to manually derive weak scenario because there are numerous factors that affect detection performance. In this study, reinforcement learning has been applied to automatically derive vulnerable diversion scenarios from virtual NMA system. Reinforcement learning trains agents to take optimal actions in a virtual environment, and based on this, it is possible to develop an agent that attempt to divert nuclear materials according to optimal weak scenario in the NMA system. A somewhat simple NMA system model has been considered to confirm the applicability of reinforcement learning in this study. The simple model performs 10 consecutive material balance evaluations per year and has the characteristic of increasing MUF uncertainty according to balance period. The expected vulnerable diversion scenario is a case where the amount of diverted nuclear material increases in proportion to the size of the MUF uncertainty, and total amount of diverted nuclear material was assumed to be 8 kg, which corresponds to one significant quantity of plutonium. Virtual NMA system model (environment) and a divertor (agent) attempting to divert nuclear material were modeled to apply reinforcement learning. The agent is designed to receive a negative reward if an action attempting to divert is detected by the NMA system. Reinforcement learning automatically trains the agent to receive the maximum reward, and through this, the weakest diversion scenario can be derived. As a result of the study, it was confirmed that the agent was trained to attempt to divert nuclear material in a direction with a low detection probability in this system model. Through these results, it is found that it was possible to sufficiently derive weak scenarios based on reinforcement learning. This technique considered in this study can suggest methods to derive and supplement weak diversion scenarios in NMA system in advance. However, in order to apply this technology smoothly, there are still issues to be solved, and further research will be needed in the future.

Due to the aging of a building, 38.8% (about 2.82 million buildings) of the total buildings are old for more than 30 years after completion and are located in a blind spot for an inspection, except for buildings subject to regular legal inspection (about 3%). Such existing buildings require users to self-inspect themselves and make efforts to take preemptive risks. The scope of this study was defined as the general public's visual self-inspection of buildings and was limited to structural members that affect the structural stability of old buildings. This study categorized possible damage to reinforced concrete to check the structural safety of buildings and proposed a checklist to prevent the damage. A damage assessment methodology was presented during the inspection, and a self-inspection scenario was tested through a chatbot connection. It is believed that it can increase the accessibility and convenience of non-experts and induce equalized results when performing inspections, according to the chatbot guide.

To prove the long-term safety of deep geological repository, the safety assessment is needed to ensure that the expected performance of repository satisfies the regulatory standards. Scenario development is process of analyzing events and evolutions that can directly or indirectly affect the performance of a disposal system and is a pre-step for quantitative safety assessment. Scenarios are used to identify and define cases to be assessed by numerical modeling, and cases are mainly divided into normal (also called the ‘reference’ and ‘expected evolution’) and abnormal scenarios. Mainly two approaches have been used to set up scenarios. One is a bottom-up approach that starts with features, events and processes (FEPs). This approach can analyze the evolution and events related to the performance of the disposal system in an inductive manner. The other is top-down approach that analyzes the events and evolution of disposal system, focusing on situations that may affect the safety function of the components. This approach starts with a set of intuitively predefined expected failures of safety function. Combining the two approaches is more effective in demonstrating comprehensiveness which is a main challenge of scenario analysis, and almost national radioactive waste management institutions combine top-down and bottom-up approaches for development of scenarios. An approach combining the two approaches is called a hybrid approach, and the detailed method differs from each institution and has not been determined. In this study, some work for constructing the scenario using hybrid approach was performed. Firstly, defining each component’s safety function and screening FEPs according to several rules were performed for a generic repository. Secondly, we extracted performance factors that are considered likely to affect safety functions. And lastly, we integrated FEPs correlated with performance factor to simplify the analysis. These results will be material to construct the scenario using hybrid approach.

CYPRUS is a web-based waste disposal research comprehensive information management program developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute over three years from 2004. This program is stored as existing quality assurance documents and data, and the research results can be viewed at any time. In addition, it helps to perform all series of tasks related to the safety evaluation study of the repository in accordance with the quality assurance system. In the future, it is necessary to improve the user convenience by clarifying the relationship between FEP and scenarios and upgrading output functions such as visualization and automatic report generation. This purpose of this study is to research and develop the advanced program of CYPRUS. This study is based on building FEP, DIM and scenario databases. It is necessary to develop an algorithm to analyze and visualize the FEP, DIM and scenario relationship. This project is an integrated information processing platform for DB management and visualization considering user convenience. The first development goal is to build long-term evolutionary FEP, DIM, and scenarios as a database. The linkage by FEP item was designed in consideration of convenience by using a mixed delimiter of letters and numbers. This design provides information on detailed interactions and impacts between FEP items. Scenario data lists a series of events and characteristic change information for performance evaluation in chronological order. In addition, it includes information on FEP occurrence and mutual nutrition by period, and information on whether or not the repository performance is satisfied by item. The second development goal is to realize the relationship analysis and visualization function of FEP and scenario based on network analysis technique. Based on DIM, this function analyzes and visualizes interactions between FEPs in the same way as PID, RES, etc. In addition, this function analyzes FEP and DIM using network analysis technique and visualizes it as a diagram. The developed platform will be used to construct and visualize the FEP DB covering research results in various disposal research fields, to analyze and visualize the relationship between core FEP and scenarios, and finally to construct scenarios and calculation cases that are the evaluation target of the comprehensive performance evaluation model. In addition, it is expected to support the knowledge exchange of experts based on the FEP and scenario integrated information processing platform, and to utilize the platform itself as a part of the knowledge transfer system for knowledge preservation.

Safety assessment is important for the radioactive waste repositories, and several methods are used to develop scenarios for the management of radioactive waste. The intent of the use of these scenarios is to show how the radio nuclides release can affect the safety of disposal system. It plays an essential role of providing scientific and technical information for performance assessment of safety functions. As important as scenario is, numerous studies for their own scenario development have been conducted in many countries. Scenario development methodology is basically divided into four categories: (1) judgmental, (2) fault/event-tree analysis, (3) simulation, and (4) systematic. Under numerous research, these methods have been developed in ways to strengthen the advantages and make up for the weakness. However, it was hard to find any judgmental or fault/event-tree analysis approach in recent safety assessments since they are not well-systemized and difficult to cover all scenarios. Simulation and systematic approaches are used broadly for their convenience of analyzing needed scenarios. Furthermore, several new methodologies, Process Influence Diagram (PID)/Rock Engineering System (RES)/Hybrid, were developed to reinforce the systematic approach in recent studies. Currently, a government project related to the disposal of spent nuclear fuel is in progress in Korea, and the scenario development for safety case is one of the important tasks. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the characteristics and strengths and weaknesses of the latest scenario development and analysis methods to create a unique methodology for Korea. In this paper, the existing methodologies and cases will be introduced, and the considerations for future scenario development will be summarized by considering those used in the nuclear field other than repository issues. Systematic approach, which is the mostly commonly used method, will be introduced in detail with its use in other countries at the subsequent companion paper entitled ‘Case Study for a Disposal Facility for the Spent Nuclear Fuel’.

In Korea, research on the development of safety case, including the safety assessment of disposal facility for the spent nuclear fuel, is being conducted for long-term management planning. The safety assessment procedure on disposal facility for the spent nuclear fuel heavily involves creating scenarios in which radioactive materials from the repository reach the human biosphere by combining Features, Events and Processes (FEP) that describe processes or events occurring around the disposal area. Meanwhile, the general guidelines provided by the IAEA or top-tier regulatory requirements addressed by each country do not mention detailed methods of ‘how to develop scenarios by combining individual FEPs’. For this reason, the overall frameworks of developing scenarios are almost similar, but their details are quite different depending on situation. Therefore, in order to follow up and clearly analyze the methods of how to develop scenarios, it is necessary to understand and compare case studies performed by each institution. In the previous companion paper entitled ‘Research Status and Trends’, the characteristics and advantages/disadvantages of representative scenario development methods were described. In this paper, which is a next series of the companion papers, we investigate and review with a focus on details of scenario development methods officially documented. In particular, we summarize some cases for the most commonly utilized methods, which are categorized as the ‘systematic method’, and this method is addressed by Process Influence Diagram (PID) and Rock Engineering System (RES). The lessons-learned and insight of these approaches can be used to develop the scenarios for enhanced Korean disposal facility for the spent nuclear fuel in the future.

본 연구에서는 한반도 주변 화산분화 시나리오를 고려한 국내 농업시설물의 화산재 취약도를 구축하였다. 이를 구축하기 위하여 화산재 하중 통계치(평균, 표준편차)와 농업시설물 저항성능의 통계치를 통해 신뢰도 지수를 산정하는 FOSM(first-order secondmoment) 기법이 이용되었다. 화산재 하중 통계치는 화산재 확산 시뮬레이션인 FALL3D를 이용하여 백두산, 울릉도, 아소산에 대한 분화 시나리오를 고려하여 산정하였으며, 농업시설물의 저항성능 통계치는 농촌진흥청에서 제공하는 내재해형 비닐하우스의 설계 적설심을 통해 공칭 파괴강도에 기초하여 산정하였다. FOSM 기법으로 평가된 화산재 취약도는 연속적인 화산재 퇴적두께로 인한 파괴확률을 평가하기 위하여 GEV 누적분포함수의 모수 형태로 데이터베이스화하였다. 본 연구에서 구축된 농업시설물의 화산재 취약도는 분화 화산별(백두산, 울릉도, 아소산), 지역별(서울, 부산, 대구, 대전), 농업시설물별(07-자동화-01, 08-자동화-01, 10-자동화-01), 화산재 수분함유 상태별(습윤, 건조)로 각기 상이한 파괴확률을 평가하였으며, 추가적으로 구축된 농업시설물의 화산재 취약도를 비교·분석하여 최대/최소의 파괴확률 범위를 확인하였다.

Unlike accidents on land, marine accidents can not be supported rapidly from the outside. For this reason, The initial response and damage control system are critical. Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) reported the necessity of the damage control system to IMO in the early 2000s. Even though the installation of these systems is not compulsory, the damage control system is installed and operated in about 60 cruises. The key component of damage control system is supporting the decision-making using 'KILL Card'. The purpose of study is to develop the shipboard training scenario for the foundation of 'KILL Card'. We made scenarios for fire and flooding through the analysis on existing scenarios, marine accident case and relative regulation. The suggested shipboard training scenario based on damage control system enables the crew to response with rapid decision-making to damage in emergency situations.

해양사고 발생시 대응능력 향상을 위해 대응훈련 및 이를 위한 시나리오 개발이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 위험유해물질 유출사고 대응체계 구축의 일환으로 가상 위험유해물질 유출사고에 대한 대응 시나리오를 개발하였다. 가상 시나리오는 부산 해역을 대상으로 개발하였으며, 대상해역에서 발생될 수 있는 가상 사고 시나리오와 이에 대한 대응 시나리오를 각각 개발하였다. 가상 사고 시나리오는 대상해역인 부산해역의 위험평가 및 취약성분석을 통해 발생될 수 있는 위험유해물질 유출사고를 선정하고, 가상 사고로 인해 발생될 수 있는 피해를 예측하여 구축되었다. 가상 사고에 대한 대응 시나리오는 가상 사고 시나리오의 피해예측에서 제시된 피해를 수습하기 위한 단계별 조치사항으로서 제시하였다. 부산해역의 위험유해물질 가상 유출사고는 부산 감천항 충돌사고로 인한 자일렌(xylene) 1,000톤 유출사고로 선정하였으며, 이로 인한 피해는 자일렌의 대기확산 및 해양확산 계산을 통해 예측하였다. 또한 가상 사고에 대한 대응 시나리오는 피해지역의 주민 대피, 자일렌 확산 방지 및 회수, 대응요원 보호조치, 사고지역 사후 관리 등에 대한 단계별 조치사항을 제시하였다.

In spite of international efforts to control nuclear weapons and chemical, biological, and radiological (CBR) weapons, North Korea obtains and sells CBR weapons illegally. As a result, the worldwide threat of CBR weapons is increasing. Unfortunately, civil defense education and training for CBR weapons have not been adopted for real situations because of the long period of absence of an actual combat. In this study, virtual training scenarios that are applied to the simulation were made in 5 steps to cope with CBR situations. These scenarios are expected to have three effects. First, trainings can be improved with experience and education. Second, the problems and health hazards of CBR weapons and supplies can be solved with CBR virtual training simulation experience. Finally, corresponding effects can be recognized and predicted in real situations through roles and mission procedures of simulation scenario.

고준위 방사성폐기물 처분에 대한 종합 성능 평가를 위해 처분장 성능 및 안전성에 미치는 영향들을 단위 현상, 사건, 공정 (FEP)으로 분류하고 이들을 발생 가능성, 결과 영향, 규제, 특정 부지의 적합성 등을 고려하여 중요도를 평가한 후 유사한 FEP들을 그룹화하여 이들 FEP 그룹들 간의 상호 반응을 이해하고 이로부터 처분장으로부터 최종 생태계에 이르는 방사성 핵종들이 이동을 기술하는 시나리오를 도출하는 연구가 필요하다. 한국원자력연구원에서는 외국의 사례를 심층 분석하고 국내 전문가 의견 등을 종합하여 국내 처분 환경에 적합한 FEP들을 380 여개 포함하는 KAERI FEP List를 개발하였다. RES와 PID방법을 사용하여 처분장 방사선적 종합 안전성 평가에서 고려해야 될 5 가지 시나리오들을 도출하였다. 또한 고준위폐기물 처분안전성평가를 종합 데이터베이스 관리시스템인 KAERI CYPRUS를 개발하고 이들 결과물을 CYPRUS 내에 구축하였다.

고준위 방사성폐기물 처분에 대한 종합 성능 평가를 위해 처분장 성능 및 안전성에 미치는 영향들을 단 위 현상, 사건, 공정 (FEP)으로 분류하고 이들을 발생 가능성, 결과 영향, 규제, 특정 부지의 적합성 등을 고려하여 중요도를 평가한 후 유사한 FEP들을 그룹화하여 이들 FEP 그룹들 간의 상호 반응을 이해하고 이로부터 처분장으로부터 최종 생태계에 이르는 방사성 핵종들이 이동을 기술하는 시나리오를 도출하는 연구가 필요하다. 한국원자력연구원에서는 외국의 사례를 심층 분석하고 국내 전문가 의견 등을 종합하 여 국내 처분 환경에 적합한 FEP들을 380 여개 포함하는 KAERI FEP List를 개발하였다. RES와 PID방법 을 사용하여 처분장 방사선적 종합 안전성 평가에서 고려해야 될 5 가지 시나리오들을 도출하였다. 또한고준위폐기물 처분안전성평가를 종합 데이터베이스 관리시스템인 KAERI CYPRUS를 개발하고 이들 결 과물을 CYPRUS 내에 구축하였다.

방사성폐기물 처분 연구 사업이 법률적인 인허가 뿐만이 아니라 일반 국민의 동의를 얻기 위해서는 처분 사업의 안전성에 대한 신뢰성 획득이 중요하며 이를 위해 투명하게 공개될 수 있는 종합 성능 평가 (TSPA, Total System Performance Assessment)의 수행 이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 처분 성능 평가의 투명성 증진을 위한 방안의 하나로 처분 종합 성능 평가 전 과정에 대해 품질 보증 원칙을 도입하여 평가 관련 전체 업무에 관한 신뢰성 향상을 꾀하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 처분 종합 성능 평가 수행의 다섯 단계인 (1) 기획, (2) 연구 수행 , (3) 문서화, (4) 내부 검토, (5) 독자적인 외부 검토 과정에 T2R3의 품질 보증 원칙을 적용한 인터넷 기반의 Cyber R&D Platform이 개발되었다. 인터넷을 기반으로 하는 본 시스템의 개발을 통해 안전성 평가 관련 모든 참여자들은 평가 전 과정에서 투명성이 유지된 데이터들에 쉽게 접근하여 이를 이용할 수 있다 Cyber R&D Platform은 안전성 평가를 위한 시나리오 개발 관련 데이터인 FEP 목록과 관련 시나리오 정보, 관련 시나리오 도출 과정 및 평가 체계 등을 체계적으로 구축한 FEAS (FEp to Assessment through Scenario development)프로그램과 안전성 평가에 필요한 입력 데이터들을 분류, 저장해 놓은 PAID (Performance Assessment Input Data) 프로그램, 그리고 이러한 자료들을 품질 보증 원칙과 절차에 의한 승인 과정을 통해 입력, 저장할 수 있는 품질 보증 시스템으로 구성되어 있으며 이를 통합 운영함으로써 도출된 데이터들의 신뢰성을 높이고자 하였다. 향후 연구에서는 Cyber R&D Platform과 평가 software와의 통합 운영으로 웹 기반 시스템에 대한 한 번의 접속만으로 안전성 평가 관련 모든 정보를 확인, 이용할 수 있도록 할 것이다.

본 연구는 최근 빈발하는 수변지역 재해에 대한 신속한 대응 및 선제적 예방을 위한 합리적 의사결정을 지원하는 다중 시나리오 기반의 시스템의 개발을 목표로 한다. 이를 위하여 강수량, 수위 등의 계측 데이터와 지형정보, 수변지역 주요 시설 정보 등을 종합적으로 고려하여 제내지의 수변구조물에 대한 중요도, 위험도를 평가하고, 이를 바탕으로 각 시설물의 자산가치를 반영하여 피해액을 산정한다. 수재해 다중 시나리오는 최악의 수재해 침수조건을 포함하는 다양한 형태의 침수 시나리오를 작성하며, 200년, 500년 빈도 등의 극한 홍수 상황 발생시의 제방 붕괴모형 연계해석에 의한 침수민감도를 도출한다. 중요도는 제내지 특정 시설물이 관련 사회 및 산업활동에 미치는 영향의 정도(Level of Criticality)를 의미하며, 인터뷰와 영향분석, 계층분석방법(AHP)을 활용하여 평가한다. 위험도는 재해로 인하여 시설물/사회/산업에 가해지는 위험의 정도를 의미하며, Bayes` Theory 및 System Dynamics를 적용하여 기능적/구조적 위험도로 분류하여 평가한다. 마지막으로 피해액은 지형정보, 시설물 제원, 자산정보 등의 일반정보를 바탕으로 침수해석 정보, 침수 분석 정보를 입력하여 손실함수 및 손실계수를 적용하여 시설물별 직/간접적 피해액을 산정한다. 시스템의 중요도, 위험도 평가 및 피해액 산정을 통하여 시스템 사용자는 다양한 수위 시나리오에 대하여 수변지역 시설물의 손상 정도 및 피해 규모를 파악할 수 있으며, 향후 재해 발생 상황시 신속한 대처를 보장하고, 제내지 주요 시설물의 보수/보강 등의 사전 재해 예방 활동 계획을 수립하기 하기 위한 주요 근거로 할용한다. 또한 주기적인 인벤토리(Inventory)의 갱신을 통하여 시스템의 활용도 및 분석/예측의 정확도를 향상시킨다.