PURPOSES : This study sought ways to connect urban above ground roads and underground roads to utilize urban space more efficiently in the development of underground roads, which are currently under development in order to alleviate problems caused by oversaturated above-ground roads. A simulation analysis was performed to develop an operation strategy that connects above-ground and underground roads to prevent congestion in above-ground areas such as entrances and exits from transferring to underground roads as well as to present its effectiveness. METHODS : Traffic efficiency analysis according to the operation strategy of above ground and underground roads was conducted using VISSIM, a microscopic traffic simulation software. The functions implemented in VISSIM were collected to set effectiveness analysis indicators for each underground road operation strategy. The Shinwol-Yeoui Underground Road was selected as the spatial scope of this study, and a surrounding road network was constructed. In addition, full-scale simulation analysis preparations were completed by performing network calibration based on the actual traffic attribute data of underground and surrounding surface roads within the construction scope. Accordingly, a traffic efficiency evaluation analysis was conducted based on the underground road operation strategy. CONCLUSIONS : Information on the increase in traffic volume within the Shinwol-Yeoui underpass was collected every 15 min. The analysis was divided into an analysis of the traffic situation within the underpass through demand control when the service level reached level D and an analysis of when demand control was not performed. It was found that demand control was necessary for the Shinwol-Yeoui Underpass when the internal traffic volume reached 2,500 vehicles/h. In addition, to analyze the spread of traffic and congestion owing to the weaving phenomenon caused by lane changes in the underpass, an analysis was conducted to observe the traffic improvement effect when full lane changes are possible for the Shinwol-Yeoui Underground Road, which currently has some lane-change-permitted sections. The analysis showed that both the maximum traffic volume and average travel speed showed better results when lane changes were allowed, and the communication situation at Yeoui JCT was found optimal.

본 연구는 입시컨설팅사교육을 경험한 학생들의 인터뷰 및 사교육 종사자와 공교육 종사자의 전문가적 견해를 탐색함 으로써, 입시컨설팅사교육 서비스 상품의 수요실태를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 학생 10명, 사교육기관 종사자 8 명, 공교육 종사자 6명을 대상으로 인터뷰를 진행하여 자료를 수집하고, 주제분석법을 활용하여 연구결과를 도출하였다. 주요 연구 결과를 종합해보면, 첫째, 학생들이 입시컨설팅사교육을 수요하는 목적은 진로 및 진학에 대한 정보 획득, 진 로 및 전공 선택에 대한 의사결정 도움, 구체적인 입시계획 수립, 불안심리를 완화하는 것이었다. 입시컨설팅사교육에 대 한 만족도는 진학 선택이 진로 선택에 비해 상대적으로 좋았으며, 고가일수록 더 긍정적이었다. 둘째, 입시컨설팅사교육 의 수요 경로는 지인추천, 학원 및 사교육 업체 추천, 입시 관련 커뮤니티를 통한 참여, 사교육 기관의 설명회(간담회)를 통한 참여 등 다양하였다. 셋째, 입시컨설팅사교육의 비용은 상담 횟수, 전공에 따라 다양했으며, 지역적으로 차이가 있 었다. 학생들은 미래의 위험 완화와 안정성을 입시컨설팅사교육에 기대하였고, 높은 비용에 대한 부담을 느끼고 있음에 도 불구하고 고가의 입시컨설팅사교육을 수요하고 있었다. 입시컨설팅 사교육 비용은 학생들이 유리한 정보를 취득하기 위한 교육 투자의 성격을 가지는 동시에 불안심리를 완화하는 소비적인 경향이 있었다. 입시컨설팅사교육의 효용성을 높 이기 위해서는 학생 및 학부모의 합리적인 의사결정이 중요하고, 사교육 종사자가 시장의 논리에 매몰되지 않는 서비스 를 제공하여야 한다. 정부는 공교육 내실화의 일환으로 진로전담교사를 양성하고, 필요한 경우에는 사교육분야의 컨설턴 트들과 위탁 및 협조할 필요가 있다.

최근 국민 삶의질 향상, 여가 활동 다변화, 인구구조의 변화 등으로 관광수요 증가 및 관광활동이 다양화되고 있다. 특히 연안 도시의 경우, 육상 관광 요소와 해양관광 요소가 공존하는 지역으로 다양한 요인이 관광수요에 영향을 미치고 있다. 본 연구 목적은 본 연구는 행위자 기반의 데이터를 활용하여 관광규모의 시계열 분석을 통해 예측 정확도를 향상시키고, 영향요인을 탐색하고자 한다. 연구 대상은 부산 지역 내 기초자치단체이며, 데이터는 월단위의 관광객수와 관광소비금액을 활용하였다. 연구방법으로 확정적(결정적) 모형 인 단변량 시계열 분석과 영향요인을 파악하기 위해 SARIMAX 분석을 수행하였다. 영향요인은 관광소비성향을 설정하였으며, 업종별 소 비금액과 SNS 언급량을 중심으로 설정하였다. 연구결과 COVID-19를 고려하지 않은 시계열 모형과 고려한 모형 간의 정확도(RMSE 기준) 차이가 지역별로 최소 1.8배에서 최대 32.7배 향상되었다. 또한 영향요인을 보면 관광소비업종과 SNS 트렌드가 관광객수와 관광소비금액 에 유의한 영향을 미치고 있다. 따라서 미래 수요예측을 위해서는 외적 영향을 고려하고, 관광객의 소비성향과 관심도가 지역관광 측면에 서 고려 대상이 된다. 본 연구는 연안도시인 부산 지역의 미래 관광수요 예측과 관광규모에 미치고 있는 영향요인을 파악하여 정부 관광 정책 및 관광추세를 고려한 관광수요태세 마련을 위한 정책 의사결정에 기여하고자 한다.

Numerous studies have established a correlation between sociodemographic characteristics and water usage, identifying population as a primary independent variable in mid- to long-term demand forecasting. Recent dramatic sociodemographic changes, including urban concentration-rural depopulation, low birth rates-aging population, and the rise in single-person households, are expected to impact water demand and supply patterns. This underscores the necessity for operational and managerial changes in existing water supply systems. While sociodemographic characteristics are regularly surveyed, the conducted surveys use aggregate units that do not align with the actual system. Consequently, many water demand forecasts have been conducted at the administrative district level without adequately considering the water supply system. This study presents an upward water demand forecasting model that accurately reflects real water facilities and consumers. The model comprises three key steps. Firstly, Statistics Korea’s SGIS (Statistical Geological Information System) data was reorganized at the DMA level. Secondly, DMAs were classified using the SOM (Self-Organizing Map) algorithm to consider differences in water facilities and consumer characteristics. Lastly, water demand forecasting employed the PCR (Principal Component Regression) method to address multicollinearity and overfitting issues. The performance evaluation of this model was conducted for DMAs classified as rural areas due to the insufficient number of DMAs. The estimation results indicate that the correlation coefficients exceeded 0.9, and the MAPE remained within approximately 10% for the test dataset. This method is expected to be useful for reorganization plans, such as the expansion and contraction of existing facilities.

PURPOSES : This study is to develop an comprehensive validation methodology for autonomous mobility-on-demand system with level 4 automated driving system. METHODS : The proposed method includes the quantitative techniques for validating both automated driving system and center system using each optimal indicators. In addition, a novel method for validating the whole system applying multi-criteria decision methodology is suggested. RESULTS : The relative weights for the vehicle system was higher than the center systems. Moreover, the relative weights of failure rate for validating the vehicle system was the highest, in addition to, a relative weight for accuracy of dynamic routing algorithm within center system was the highest. CONCLUSIONS : The proposed methodology will be applicable to validate the autonomous mobility on demand system quantitatively considering the relative weights for each systems.

본 연구는 한중일 문화와 무슬림 관광수요와의 인과관계를 실증적으로 규 명하고 무슬림 관광객 유치 경쟁력 개선을 위한 한국의 전략적 시사점을 제 공하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 연구대상 무슬림 국가는 한국과 중국, 일본 을 방문하는 비중이 높은 동남아시아 지역의 말레이시아와 인도네시아로 선 정하였으며 연구 조사 기간은 2006년서 2018년까지로 한정하였다. 본 연구의 국제관광수요 모형에서는 정량적 요인으로 소득, 가격을 선정하 였고 정성적 요인으로는 문화 요인인 문화적 거리를 사용하였다. 문화적 거리 는 홉스테드 문화차원 점수를 활용하여 KSI(Kogut & Singh Index)방식으로 계 측하였다. 연구모형은 고정효과 최소제곱법(OLSFE)으로 추정했는데 이는 패널 고정효 과 모형의 특수 형태이다. 분석 결과 문화 요인인 문화적 거리가 소득과 가격의 경제적 요인보다 무슬림 관광수요에 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정되 었다. 이와 같이 본 연구에서 국제관광수요에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 각국의 문화차이를 나타내는 문화적 거리의 중요성을 파악하였다. 이는 관광지 경쟁 력에 국가문화가 왜 필수인지에 대한 이해를 제공한 것으로 실무적인 측면이 나 학술적인 측면에서 활용할 수 있을 것이다. 주제어: 한중일 문화, 무슬림 관광수요, 문화적 거리, 홉스테드 문화차원, KSI(Kogut & Singh Index).

This study examines the demand system of shrimp imported from top four countries and domestically produced by using AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) model. Top four import countries are Vietnam, Ecuador, China, and Malaysia based on the value of imports in 2021. As results of the analysis, the demand system of shrimp turn out to be below. First, the relationship of domestic shrimp and imported shrimp (Ecuadorian and Vietnamese) is identified as complements or substitutes depending on whether the income effect is considered. This result implies that imported shrimp supplements domestic supply against excess demand while homogeneous shrimp products competes with domestic shrimp in fish market. Second, the relationship among imported shrimps turned out to be both substitutes and complements. Especially, the Vietnamese shrimp is complementary with Chinese and Malaysian shrimp, but substitutes of Ecuadorian. It is assumed that adjoining Asian countries shares similar shrimp species and processing system which differentiates from Ecuadorian. Finally, the study included quarter as dummy variable and GDP as instrumental variable of expenditure in the model. The result confirmed that domestic shrimp is highly on demand during the main production season while imported shrimp is mainly demanded during the rest of the season.

PURPOSES : This study aims to analyze the impact of demand risk on two public-private partnership (PPP) projects, namely BTO and BTO-a. The main aspects covered in this study are: i) identification of key risk issues considering the structure of PPP projects, and ii) game theory-oriented scenario building and simulation of demand risk allocation from participants’ perspectives. METHODS : Using the institutional analysis and development (hereafter IAD) framework, a hypothetical structure is formulated to examine the interactions of demand risk. It develops a series of demand risk allocation models for PPP projects (i.e., BTO and BTO-a). The risk structures from the IAD step are the demand risk allocation issues. Using game theory-oriented simulation, this study evaluates demand risk based on scenario building. RESULTS : First, this study highlights the imbalanced rate problems of returns between the BTO and BTO-a projects proposed by the market. This may lead to improvement measures geared towards problematic methods for determining the rate of return among domestic PPP projects. Second, compared with the BTO type, this study expects that the BTO-a type may exhibit more effectiveness, which can increase the probability of project success in both the public and private sectors. Third, judging from game-theory-oriented approaches, this study confirms the function of the BTO-a as a method to adjust moral hazard in the private sector. CONCLUSIONS : Government management standards for BTO-a projects were derived based on the simulation results. It is necessary to select an appropriate project method based on rationality by balancing the IRR for each project method. Legal regulations should be applied separately to each part of the government guarantee. In addition, this study emphasizes that the introduction of ex-post value-for-money (VFM) analysis is essential for the efficient management of government expenses.

PURPOSES : The primary purpose of this study is to develop a framework for predicting the demand and distribution of pedestrians when an open space zone is built at the top through the undergroundization of the Gyeongin Expressway. METHODS : After analyzing the current status through a survey on the number of people, students, surrounding traffic volume, and future socioeconomic indicators, the rate of change in the floating population and the rate of increase and decrease in the traffic volume of pedestrians were calculated to evaluate the effect. In addition, microscopic analysis results were derived by setting a pedestrian analysis zone (PAZ). A walking environment index (WEI) was developed that can quantitatively evaluate the degree of walking activation by indicating walking-related surrounding environmental factors. Based on this, a walking demand prediction model was developed. In addition, the results were validated by calculating the walking volume through a micro-simulation in/around the open space zone. RESULTS : The number of crosswalks and schools, transit development indicators, and pedestrian volume increased as the WEI value increased. However, the log form of the distance was observed to be a factor that reduced walking. CONCLUSIONS : This study attempted to reliably predict the demand for walking on the Gyeongin Expressway by calculating the amount of induced walking and the amount of passing walking. The pedestrian demand can be boosted by improving walking environments.

PURPOSES : Recently, increasing number of local governments are introducing on-demand public transportation service in real time to improve the management efficiency of public transportation. In preparation for the autonomous driving era, the “autonomous public transportation mobility on-demand service in real time” is being developed in the public transportation sector to introduce on-demand public transportation. For this service to become the public transportation of the future, it must receive publicity. Therefore, in this study, indicators were selected to evaluate the publicity of the autonomous public transportation mobility on-demand service in real time, and a survey was conducted among the general public to examine the validity of the indicators. METHODS : To secure the publicity of on-demand public transportation in real time, the goal of the service was first set. Second, the keywords of the service were analyzed to define the publicity requirements of this service. Based on the analyzed keywords and definition of publicity, service indicator types were classified, and the indicators were defined by type. A user satisfaction survey was conducted on the final selected indicators to improve the degree of completion of indicator development. The user survey was conducted by presenting selected publicity indicators to respondents responding on a five-point scale to determine whether each indicator could satisfactorily evaluate publicity. RESULTS : When examining various previous research cases and the contents required for autonomous public transportation mobility on-demand service in real time, the required items of publicity indicators were found to be “safety” in terms of “autonomous driving” and “convenience” in terms of “demand response.” Publicity indicators were developed according to these three items. Thirty-one indicators were developed, and a satisfaction survey was conducted on the general public for each indicator. In the survey, most of the indicators scored 3.5 points or higher, indicating that the indicators were generally well defined. Users gave the highest score to “fairness” among the three items, and “reasonable fairness” was found to be a necessary item as a publicity indicator. CONCLUSIONS : In this study, evaluation indicators were selected to secure the publicity of autonomous public transportation mobility on-demand service in real time, and a satisfaction survey was conducted for each indicator. Most of the indicators showed a score of 3.5 or higher, indicating that they were generally well defined. However, this study has a limitation in that it surveys the general population. In future, experts should be included in the survey to increase the degree of completeness of the public indicators.

식품 소비에 있어 어류가 주요한 단백질의 공급원으로서 역할이 증대됨에 따라 기존 육류 중심으로 이루어졌던 수요분석 연구가 어류를 포함한 수산물까지 확대되어 다양한 연구결과가 발표되고 있다. 그럼에도 불구 어류 수요분석에 대한 기존 연구들은 소비량 및 가격데이터 등 데이터 확보의 어려움으로 도매 혹은 소매 단계의 시장수요를 추정하여 소비자 개인의 수요함수를 추정하지 못한 한계를 가지고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 주요 어종의 1인당 소비량과 소비자가격 데이터로 DAIDS (Dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System) 모형을 활용하여 개별 소비자의 수요함수를 추정함으로써 기존 연구와 차별성을 두었다. 실증 분석 결과, 소득탄력성의 경우 멸치가 가장 크고 오징어, 고등어, 갈치, 명태 순으로 멸치를 제외하고는 소득변화에 비탄력적이었다. 자체가격탄력성은 품목 간 다소 차이가 있지만 5개 품목 모두 자체가격에 대해 비탄력적이었으며, 어종 간 교차가격탄력성은 고등어와 갈치, 갈치와 멸치를 제외하고는 상호보완 관계가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 우리나라에서 주요 소비되는 어종이 서로 대체하기 보다는 상호 보완적인 관계로 수산물 소비가 단일 품목으로 이루어지기 보다는 다양한 수산물과 함께 이루어지기 때문인 것으로 판단된다.