This research introduces a novel probabilistic approach to consider the effects of uncertainty parameters during the design and construction process, providing a fresh perspective on the evaluation of the structural performance of reinforced concrete structures. The study, which categorized various random design and construction process variables into three groups, selected a two-story reinforced concrete frame as a prototype and evaluated it using a nonlinear analytical model. The effects of the uncertainty propagations to seismic responses of the prototype RC frame were probabilistically evaluated using non-linear dynamic analyses based on the Monte-Carlo simulation sampling with the Latin hypercube method. The derivation of seismic fragility curves of the RC frame from the probabilistic distributions as the results of uncertainty-propagation and the verification of whether the RC frame can meet the seismic performance objective from a probabilistic point of view represent a novel and significant contribution to the field of structural engineering.

In this study, we attempted to examine how the management commitment and safety communication affect the safety behavior of flight crew members while performing their duties. In addition, we attempted to examine how the individual cultural values ​​of each flight crew are involved and influenced in such influence relationships. As a result of the study, among the sub-variables of safety behavior, the relationship between commitment to safety compliance and communication was found to have no statistically significant effect (∆R2 = .049, p = .5), and the relationship between commitment to safety participation and communication was found to had a statistically significant effect (∆R2 = .088, p < .001). As a result of examining the moderating effect of individual culture values ​​in the relationship between commitment to safety participation and communication, the moderating effect of uncertainty avoidance (β = .256, p < .05) showed statistically significant results, and management's commitment/communication The interaction effect between and uncertainty avoidance had a statistically significant effect when uncertainty avoidance was low, but was not statistically significant when uncertainty avoidance was high.

격납건물은 원자력 발전소의 중대 사고 발생시 방사성 물질의 외부 방출을 막는 심층 방어 체계 중 마지막 방벽이다. 중대사고 발생시 격납건물 내부에선 노심 융해와 수소 발생으로 인한 내압 상승과 증기 폭발로 인한 구조적 손상이 일어나며, 이에 대한 구조적 건전성을 평가하기 위해 격납건물에 대 한 극한 내압 성능 평가를 실시한다. 극한 내압 성능 평가 방법 중 확률론적 평가시 현실적인 제약으 로 인해 고신뢰도 유한요소해석 모델을 이용하며 이때에 불확실성 인자들의 확률 분포 특성을 고려한 데이터 셋을 샘플링 기법을 이용하여 구성한 후 비선형 해석을 실시한다. 도출된 비선형 해석 결과는 취약도 곡선을 도출에 사용되며, 취약도 곡선을 이용하여 확률론적인 평가가 실시된다. 샘플링 기법에 따라 적절한 표본 크기가 아닌 데이터셋을 구성하게 되면 통계적 불확실성으로 인한 취약성 분석의 오차가 증대된다. 하지만 유한요소해석시 발생하는 막대한 계산 비용으로 인하여 기존의 방식은 적절 한 샘플링 크기 선정 및 부적절한 샘플링 크기 선정으로 인한 확률론적인 성능평가에 대한 영향에 대 한 정량화 및 평가를 제한적으로 수행하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 격납건물의 재료적 특성 및 내압 으로 인한 변위 데이터를 기반으로 생성한 인공신경망 모델을 통해 유한요소 해석에 대한 대리모델을 생성한다. 이후 생성한 대리모델을 기반으로 일반적인 불확실성 분포 샘플링에 사용되는 Monte Carlo method, latin hypercube sampling, Sobol sequence을 이용하여 표본 크기에 따른 격납건물 확률론적 인 극한내압성능 평가에 대한 영향을 정량화 및 평가를 실시하겠다. 이를 통해 제한적으로 탐색되었던 불확실성 공간에 대하여, 그 통계적 불확실성 및 전방위적인 탐색이 가능해 질것으로 기대한다.

In this study, data on indication errors within the range of 0 to 10 mm were measured using a dial gauge, which is widely used as a comparative measuring instrument in the field. Using Minitab, a statistical program, measurement conditions were determined during calibration of measuring instruments. Since the P value of the test statistic for the indication error is 0.000 to 0.003, the alternative hypothesis (H1) that no significant difference occurs due to a change in the measurement point at the significance level of 0.05 was adopted.

Bellows expansion joints enhance the displacement performance of piping systems owing to their unique geometrical features. However, structural uncertainties such as wall thinning in convolutions, a byproduct of the manufacturing process, can impair their structural integrity. This study addresses such issues by conducting a global sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of these uncertainties on the performance of bellows expansion joints under monotonic loading. Global sensitivity analysis, which examines main and nth order interaction effects, is computationally expensive. To mitigate this, we employed a surrogate model-based approach using an artificial neural network. This model demonstrated robust prediction capabilities, as evidenced by metrics such as the coefficient of determination. The sensitivity indices of the main effect for the 2-ply and 3-ply bellows at the sixth convolution were 0.3340 and 0.3233, respectively. The sensitivity index of the sixth convolution was larger than that of other convolutions because the maximum deformation of the bellows expansion joint under monotonic bending load occurs around it. Interestingly, the sensitivity index for the interaction effect was negligible (0.01%) compared to the main effect, suggesting minimal activity between uncertainty factors across convolutions. Notably, bellows expansion joints under repetitive loading exhibit more complex behaviors, with the initial leakage typically occurring at the convolution. Therefore, future studies should focus on the structural uncertainties of bellows expansion joints under cyclic loading and employ a surrogate model for comprehensive global sensitivity analysis.

이 연구는 대학생의 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 취업 스트레스 의 관계에서 희망적 사고와 심리적 안녕감의 순차 매개효과를 확인하 기 위한 목적에서 수행되었다. 이를 위해 2023년 8월 한 달 동안 서울 및 경기도 소재 4년제 대학교 3곳에 재학 중인 대학생 298명을 대상으 로 자료를 수집하고 SPSS 26.0 및 Process Macro 4.1 프로그램을 활용하여 기술 통계 및 상관분석, 개별 매개효과 및 순차 매개효과 분 석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과, 대학생의 불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족과 취업 스트레스의 관계에서 희망적 사고와 심리적 안녕감 각각의 개별 매개효과는 통계적으로 유의했다. 또한 희망적 사고와 심리적 안녕감을 순서대로 투입한 순차 매개효과 또한 통계적으로 유의했다. 즉 대학생 의 불확실성에 대한 인내력이 부족할수록 희망적 사고가 감소하여 심 리적 안녕감을 저해함으로써 결과적으로 취업 스트레스를 증가시키는 것이 확인되었다. 이를 토대로 현재 취업으로 인해 상당한 스트레스를 경험하고 있는 한국의 대학생들을 도울 수 있는 개입 또는 중재 방안 이 취업 지원 시 중요하게 고려되어야 함을 제언하였다.

The deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste requires careful consideration due to its exceptionally long-term implications, making long-term impact assessments essential. However, evaluating the long-term effects of deep geological repositories using performance assessment models is accompanied by various sources of uncertainty, including uncertainties about the future, model uncertainties, and uncertainties associated with input data. These multifaceted uncertainties arise from factors such as a lack of current knowledge, contributing to a complex web of unpredictability. Managing, mitigating, and ultimately eliminating these uncertainties is crucial for ensuring the performance and safety of deep geological repositories. Currently, the Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD) is developing a complex behavior model that incorporates Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) phenomena within the disposal system using PFLOTRAN. To address model uncertainties and furthermore input data uncertainties for this intricate model, an automated sensitivity analysis system has been developed. This automated system operates without human intervention, facilitating tasks such as automatic parameter adjustments and the quantification of uncertainties. Furthermore, this system aids in identifying key factors characterized by substantial uncertainties. Through this system, it is possible to examine concentration distributions in each components of the deep disposal facility in response to changes in input data and to identify factors with significant uncertainties. The sensitivity results and key uncertainty factors obtained through this system are intended to be used for optimizing uncertainties in future research and development.

In our previous study, we developed a CFD thermal analysis model for a CANDU spent fuel dry storage silo. The purpose of this model is to reasonably predict the thermal behavior within the silo, particularly Peak Cladding Temperature (PCT), from a safety perspective. The model was developed via two steps, considering optimal thermal analysis and computational efficiency. In the first step, we simplified the complex geometry of the storage basket, which stored 2,220 fuel rods, by replacing it with an equivalent heat conductor with effective thermal conductivity. Detailed CFD analysis results were utilized during this step. In the second step, we derived a thermal analysis model that realistically considered the design and heat transfer mechanisms within the silo. We developed an uncertainty quantification method rooted in the widely adopted Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) method in the nuclear industry. The primary objective of this method is to derive the 95/95 tolerance limits of uncertainty for critical analysis outcomes. We initiated by assessing the uncertainty associated with the CFD input mesh and the physical model applied in thermal analysis. And then, we identified key parameters related to the heat transfer mechanism in the silo, such as thermal conductivity, surface emissivity, viscosity, etc., and determined their mean values and Probability Density Functions (PDFs). Using these derived parameters, we generated CFD inputs for uncertainty quantification, following the principles of the 3rd order Wilks’ formula. By calculating inputs, A database could be constructed based on the results. And this comprehensive database allowed us not only to quantify uncertainty, but also to evaluate the most conservative estimates and assess the influence of parameters. Through the aforementioned method, we quantified the uncertainty and evaluated the most conservative estimates for both PCT and MCT. Additionally, we conducted a quantitative evaluation of parameter influences on both. The entire process from input generation to data analysis took a relatively short period of time, approximately 5 days, which shows that the developed method is efficient. In conclusion, our developed method is effective and efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty and gaining insights into the behavior of silo temperatures under various conditions.

Nuclear Forensics is recognized as a essential component in the nuclear non-proliferation verification sector by the international community. It is being advanced under the leadership of the IAEA, the U.S., and the EU. Both the U.S.’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the international collaborative organization, the Nuclear Forensics International Technical Working Group (ITWG), have proposed to establish a relationship between the production timing and radiochronometry of nuclear materials or samples to utilize in the field of nuclear forensics. Radiochronometry of nuclear materials is calculated based on the Bateman equation, incorporating factors with uncertainties derived from tests, experiments, and analyses. The results from the nuclear activity radiochronometry also encompass uncertainties, affecting their reliability. This study examined the mathematical uncertainty calculations related to the results of nuclear activity radiochronometry, focusing on calculation methods, contribution rates per factor, and sensitivities. Uncertainty factors for the Bateman equation-based radiochronometry were observed in the decay constants for each nuclide type and the uncertainty in the radioactive ratio of the tracer nuclide. The sensitivity for each factor revealed that the uncertainty in the radioactive ratio of the signature nuclide contributed more significantly than the uncertainty in decay constants for each nuclide type. Each factor displayed a distinct sensitivity curve relative to the radioactive ratio. As it approaches a radioactive equilibrium, the sensitivity tends to increase infinitely, indicating a corresponding trend of infinite increase in uncertainty. Because the time and curve shape to reach radioactive equilibrium vary depending on the signature nuclide, it’s essential to choose an appropriate signature nuclide based on the anticipated period and analysis requirements for nuclear activity radiochronometry. However, radiochronometry using mathematical methods is limited to the relationship between parent and daughter nuclides, presenting the potential for underestimation of uncertainty factors like decay constants. Future research will need to focus on uncertainty calculation methods through computational simulations, especially using the Monte Carlo method, to overcome the limitations of mathematical approaches and potential underestimations.

The Republic of Korea (ROK), as a member state of the IAEA, is operating the State’s System of Accounting for and Control (SSAC) and conducting independent national inspections. Furthermore, an evaluation methodology for the material unaccounted for (MUF) is being developed in ROK to enhance capabilities of national inspection. Generally, physical and chemical changes of nuclear material are unavoidable due to the operating system and structure of facilities, an accumulation of material unaccounted for (MUF) has been issued. IAEA developed statistical MUF evaluation method that can be applied to all facilities around the world and it mainly focuses on the diversion detection of nuclear materials in facilities. However, in terms of the national safeguard inspection, an evaluation of accountancy in facilities is additionally needed. Therefore, in this research, a new approach to MUF evaluation is suggested, based on the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) that an evaluation of measurement uncertainty factors is straightforward. A hypothetical list of inventory items (LII) which has 6,118 items at the beginning and end of the material balance period, along with 360 inflow and outflow nuclear material items at a virtual fuel fabrication plant was employed for both the conventional IAEA MUF evaluation method and the proposed GUM-based method. To calculate the measurement uncertainty, it was assumed that an electronic balance, gravimetry, and a thermal ionization mass spectrometer were used for a measurement of the mass, concentration, and enrichment of 235U, respectively. Additionally, it was considered that independent and correlated uncertainty factors were defined as random factors and systematic factors for the ease of uncertainty propagation by the GUM. The total MUF uncertainties of IAEA (σMUF) and GUM (uMUF) method were 37.951 and 36.692 kg, respectively, under the aforementioned assumptions. The difference is low, it was demonstrated that the GUM method is applicable to the MUF evaluation. The IAEA method demonstrated its applicability to all nuclear facilities, but its calculated errors exhibited low traceability due to its simplification. In contrast, the calculated uncertainty based on the GUM method exhibited high reliability and traceability, as it allows for individual management of measurement uncertainty based on the facility’s accounting information. Consequently, the application of the GUM approach could offer more benefits than the conventional IAEA method in cases of national safeguard inspections where factor analysis is required for MUF assessment.

Insurance and unit trust (also known as mutual funds) are high-involvement financial products that require investors to hold for long term to gain desired returns. These financial products are also considered unsought products, which require salespeople’s personal touch with their potential customers to make sales. Therefore, the relationship between salespeople and their potential or existing customers becomes crucial in the sales of insurance and unit trust. In theoretical terms, this relationship represents business ties. A strong business ties between the salespeople and the customers enable them to exchange resources and knowledge, and co-create values in their business relationships. Such exchange and co-creation of values are desirable in a business network. Weak ties are irregular and infrequent exchanges, creating structural holes that bring about an opportunity for bridging but have not yet been capitalized.

The aspiration of entrepreneurs to extensively grow their firms has been found to make stronger contribution to economic growth than the entrepreneurship rate in general. Formal and informal institutions shape the business environments in which companies are operating. Thus, they affect entrepreneurs’ beliefs about firm growth. However, prior research gives little attention to the interaction effects of formal and informal institutions on entrepreneurial growth aspiration.

Since 2018, Central Research Institute of Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP–CRI) has been operating an X-ray irradiation system with a maximum voltage of 160 kV and 320 kV X-ray tube to test personal dosimeters in accordance with ANSI N13.11-2009 “Personnel Dosimetry Performance- Criteria for Testing”. This standard requires that dosimeters for the photon category testing be irradiated with the X-ray beams appropriate to the ISO beam quality requirements. KHNP-CRI has implemented the fourteen X-ray reference radiation beams in compliance with ISO-4037-1, 2, and 3. When installing the X-ray irradiation system, KHNP-CRI evaluated the uncertainties of dose conversion coefficients for deep and shallow doses, based on “Catalogue of X-ray spectra and their characteristic data – ISO and DIN radiation qualities, therapy and diagnostic radiation qualities, unfiltered X-ray spectra” published by Physikalisch Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB). A CdTe detector (X-123, AMPTEK) with disk type collimators made of tungsten was used to acquire X-ray spectra. The detector was located at 1 m from the center of the target material in the Xray tubes. Six uncertainty factors for the dose conversion coefficients for the fourteen X-ray beams were chosen as follows; the minimum and maximum cut-off energies Emin and Emax, the air density (ρ), the accuracy of the high-voltage of the X-ray tube, statistics of the pulse height spectra and the unfolding method. For example, uncertainty of each quantity for a HK30 beam was calculated to be 0.3%, 2.32%, 0.19%, 1.25%, and 0.13%, and 0.18%, respectively. The combined standard uncertainty for the deep dose conversion coefficient of the HK30 beam was calculated to be 2.67%. The coverage factor corresponding to a 95 percent confidence interval was obtained as k = 1.8 using a Monte Carlo method, which is slightly lower the coverage factor of k = 1.95 for a Gaussian distribution. This seems to result from that two dominant uncertainties, the unfolding uncertainty and minimum cut-off energy uncertainty, follow a rectangular distribution.

After spent fuel is stored in a dry storage container, it becomes difficult to obtain information on the fuel’s characteristics. As a result, it is necessary to identify the characteristics of spent nuclear fuel in advance and secure the information necessary to establish delivery acceptance requirements for interim storage and disposal in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the characteristics of spent fuel before loading dry storage casks. In order to prepare for the dry storage of spent fuel, information on the basic characteristics of the fuel is required. As part of this information, it is also necessary to establish calculation criteria for spent fuel burnup. Spent fuel burnup can be classified into three categories. The first is burnup evaluated using design codes (design burnup), the second is burnup measured by furnace instruments during power plant operation (actual burnup), and the third is burnup measured through measurement equipment (measured burnup). This paper describes a comparative evaluation of design burnup, actual burnup, and measured burnup for specific fuels (40 bundles).

클라우제비츠는 『전쟁론』에서 전쟁은 개별 상황마다 그 본질을 약간씩 변화시키기 때문에 카멜레온과도 같다고 보았다. 클라우제비츠의 이러한 주장은 모든 것이 불확실한 전쟁 상황에서 다양한 요소들이 상호작용을 하여 승패에 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 언급한 것이다. 이 글에서는 불확실성 의 요인이 되는 우연과 마찰, 정보, 위험, 육체적 고통을 토대로 이를 해 소하기 위한 5가지 방안을 도출하여 제1연평해전과 연평도 포격전 사례를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 첫째, 실전적 교육훈련, 둘째, 과감한 권한 위임, 셋째, 부대 운용의 융통성, 넷째, 간단없는 작전지속 지원, 다섯째, 피아 전술 전기 숙달 등을 통해 불확실성을 해소하고 전승을 달성할 수 있었음 을 확인할 수 있었다. 이것이 한국군에 주는 함의로는 첫째, 창의적인 사 고력과 탄력적인 부대지휘 능력을 배양하기 위한 교육훈련의 필요성, 둘 째, 전술교리 적용에 융통성 없이 집착하는 문화 지양, 셋째, 군인으로서 ‘인생의 첫 전투’를 어떻게 수행할 것인가에 대한 준비가 필요하다. 비록 군사과학 기술이 발전하여 전장 상황을 가시화할 수 있게 되더라도 전쟁 의 근본적인 본질인 불확실성은 전쟁 수행에 커다란 영향을 미치는 변수 라는 것을 망각해서는 안 될 것이다.

This study was evaluated based on the items of KS B 6389. The study on the calculation of angular error and measurement uncertainty of HRc hardness measurement using statistical techniques using Rockwell measurement specimens with different hardness values ​​was analyzed, and the results were derived according to the change in the angle of the indenter part of the hardness tester and the specimen. As a result of the experiment, the test statistic P values ​​for angle changes such as 0°, 1°, and 2° were all 0.000 using the HRc 30 and 40 measurement specimens, so it was confirmed through the experiment that a significant difference occurred between them. In addition, the extended uncertainty value was calculated as 0.612 at the 95.45% confidence level, and the fact that the hardness test value came out smaller than the existing test value as the inclination angle increased was verified through experiments.

Thermal analysis and safety assessment of spent fuel transport cask are mainly conducted using commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes based on Finite Volume Method (FVM). The reliability and predictability of CFD codes have greatly been improved by the development in the computer systems, and are widely used to calculate heat flow in complex structures that cannot be analyzed theoretically. In the field of thermal analysis using the CFD code, it is important to clearly reflect the physical model of the transport cask, and a grid configuration suitable for the physical model is essential for accurate analysis. However, since there are no clear standard and guidelines for grid configuration and size, it is highly dependent on the user’s insight. Spatial discretization errors result from the use of finite-width grids and the approximation of the differential terms in the model equations by difference operators. Since the user usually cannot change the truncation error order of a given discretization scheme, spatial discretization errors can only be influenced by the provision of optimal grids. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the spatial discretization errors caused by the grid. In the case of Orano TN’s NUHOMS® MP197 transport cask, considering four grids for two sets, the temperature uncertainty of the neutron shield, which has the lowest margin at the limit temperature among transport cask components, was quantified by applying 5-step procedure of the Grid Convergence Index (GCI) method for the uncertainty estimation presented in ASME V&V 20-2009. In the case of domestic spent nuclear fuel transport cask (KORAD21), neutron shield among the transport cask components has the lowest margin at the limited temperature. Accordingly, in this study, the temperature uncertainty of the neutron shield was quantified by applying GCI to three sets considering seven grids. As a result of the calculation, the uncertainty was less than ± 1°C, and the temperature of the neutron shield including the uncertainty was evaluated to be maintained below the limit temperature of 148°C.

The Republic of Korea is implementing safeguards for domestic nuclear facilities through cooperation with the IAEA. But it is not to evaluate the material balance for the material unaccounted for, MUF in the bulk handling facility. Although the development of a material balance evaluation program is underway, there are no related regulations. The State Regulatory Authority, SRA is performing material balance evaluation, MBE on the facility based on the design information and material balance results of the facility. However, it is not possible to directly derive measurement uncertainty for the facility’s measurement equipment, which is an important variable of MBE. To solve this problem, it is trying to derive a method suitable for the domestic environment by investigating the some measurement uncertainty estimation methods and analyzing characteristics of them. In this study, the traditional measurement uncertainty estimation method, GUM method and GUM-S1 method were studied and the advantages and disadvantages were analyzed. Due to the problems mentioned above, the uncertainty quantification technique currently being used cannot be applied to the evaluation of the domestic material balance. Therefore, we are tying to apply them to the evaluation the domestic material balance through the above three methods or a combination of them appropriately. Through this continuing study, it is expected that it will be possible to present a plan to derive measurement uncertainty optimized for the domestic MBE environment.

This paper describes the design of H-infinity controller for robust control of a DC motor system. The suggested controller can ensure robustness against disturbance and model uncertainty by minimizing H-infinity norm of the transfer function from exogenous input to performance output and applying the small gain theorem. In particular, the controller was designed to reduce the effects of disturbance and model uncertainty simultaneously by formalizing these problems as a mixed sensitivity problem. The validity of the proposed controller was demonstrated by computer simulations and real experiments. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed controller was confirmed by comparing its performance with PI controller, which was tested under the same experimental condition as the H-infinity controller.